EURUSD

Where is more likely to go?

NOYER SAYS QE NOT ON ECB AGENDA AT THE MOMENT -MAGAZINE - RTRS
20-Sep-2014

1. ECB waiting for results of current stimulus steps
2. Noyer says euro zone "certainly not in deflation"
3. But inflation too low for too long is "is dangerous"
4. Weaker euro would be helpful to restore price stability

The European Central Bank is not currently considering widening its asset purchases to include government debt, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer was quoted as saying on Saturday.
Tepid demand from banks for the ECB's first offer of ultra-long loans earlier in the week raised market speculation the ECB may still have do so-called quantitative easing (QE) - printing money to buy large amounts of private and sovereign debt.
Asked by German magazine WirtschaftsWoche in an interview, whether QE was on the ECB's agenda at the moment, Noyer said: "No. Decisions have been taken and we shall see if the foreseen results will come."
Following its policy decision in June and September that included the ultra-long loans as well as a programme to buy repackaged private debt, the ECB would now monitor financial markets and lending activities to see whether the steps worked.
"The final result may take 18 months, but the intermediate results should take place earlier than that," Noyer was quoted as saying in a pre-release of the interview.
The ECB's plan to buy asset-backed securities was met with criticism in Germany, where Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned against turning the ECB into the bad bank of Europe by taking risks off banks and passing them onto taxpayers.
Noyer said he could, generally speaking, understand and sympathise with concerns about the quality and safety of the ECB's balance sheet, but added that the new purchase programme would respect such concerns.
"I am rather confident that we can do that without taking risks and with the willingness to have a safe balance sheet."
The ECB's recent stimulus steps aim to revive lending and growth in the euro zone, which is struggling with weak inflation

1. 0.4 percent in August - and persistently high unemployment.

Noyer said even if the euro zone was "certainly not in deflation", "inflation too low for too long, and too far from price stability is dangerous". The ECB has a medium-term inflation target of below, but close to 2 percent.
"It would be logical and helpful to have a somewhat weaker euro to restore and maintain price stability," Noyer said, reiterating that the ECB does not have an exchange rate target.

Monday, Mario will speak. From there to Wednesday at Home Sales on US, Euro can be at 2750. All the others news are not game changers. From there we will see.

The real number for the EU unemployment is much lower actually since a lot of people work under the table in order to avoid taxes.

Retail sentiment index are shifting to sell....

Retail traders are not an Indicator to trade. Economic indicators, yes. Now, we are on a special place, where 2750 can hold or not. I will wait to see. My view, it will not hold and we go more. How much?, I don't know. If hold, then, it s ok, we go long for a retrace, but there is the point to see where will go for the rest of the year.

Very true
i'm in your side

hope there is no gap... and it opens lower than it is right now.... The way the day ended pushing down might cause a big gap Start Sunday

Why would you have a big gap on Monday in EUR.... Unless you have "week end news", I can not see the EUR having any gap at all.
There is a lot of speeches this week as well as some US and EU data, but overall the EUR is in a clear downtrend. Just look for level to sell.

So you don't feel it could open 20+ pips down... ?

The current level of the EURUSD you can check on the website http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=USD&view=12h
Gap is only on your chart.

It just closed funny is all... and there has been gaps before.
http://www.top-forex-systems.com/weekend-gap-backtest

Here is the last quote I had on Reuters Friday night. I just checked the news and nothing was said in the G20
nor any geo political news so I don't see any reason why it should gap, mind you I don't consider 20 pips as a gap.

i hope there's no gap . damn . no gap , please

Well, there is still a long way down....

If Draghi keeps the interest rate low and the FED rises the interest it's over...

It can go 1.20 and stay there for some time.

No doubt, EU is going down further.

The way I see it, EU will rise a little after market open, since that time is mostly bullish...maybe until EU opens...so if we get above 2865 by that time, I will try a last short into low 28xx numbers...if it fails to break and USDx fails to break 85, I will stay away from shorts until I see whats going on, so I don't get caight in shorts on the way up. I can still see this going low, way lower than it is now...but I would prefer to short this again above 3000, or 3050. Not expecting a reversal...but a pullback to get more people into longs.

FED will not raise the interrest rate anytime soon...but that doesn't mean EU won't be dropping further, maybe it will get more choppy at these levels.

Thank you for the link robin,

Gap just because the our chart not record the rate during weekend, actually during weekend the price still move up and down... so blank data prices during weekend looks like a gap.


So if you worry about your position the mentioned link would help to check the latest price, helping you to anticipate during market open.


Best regards

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...und-rises.html

The trend will continue on all Majors, at least till May 2015.