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The similarity system

  • #8,681
  • Sep 19, 2014 11:52pm Sep 19, 2014 11:52pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} i think youre right cos its working for me
Ah I can allow myself some rest. Progress!
I want more brain power!
  • #8,682
  • Sep 20, 2014 12:16am Sep 20, 2014 12:16am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Ah I can allow myself some rest. Progress!
  • #8,683
  • Sep 20, 2014 12:18am Sep 20, 2014 12:18am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} For the hard workers, eurusdd has just revaled a few more secrets. you need to crack this. Now i believe youre a PHD student of mathemathics. Guys all i see is Mathemathics, Physics, economics, finance etc Mathematics is the key skill becos we are talking about stochastic processes. you will understan inflextion from maths. The market is not random. thank God i did some serios engineriing maths in univ. The laws of physics govern the movement of price like a fluid thru a pipeline. economics covers demand and supply. finance covers money...
Hi Ephisi,
Does a black hole have a strong magnet, that will "eat" all aircraft and spacecraft which fly near it?
I think we will visit 2865-2879 again on next Monday.
Thanks
Similarity can change your life !
  • #8,684
  • Sep 20, 2014 12:28am Sep 20, 2014 12:28am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} TZ is essentially how you would draw a support/resistence line in its basic form. But what you are looking for are the spaces. The absence of price bars to the left or right of the most extreme price. Most people think that is Top/Bottom.....giving Resistence/Support. But here's another magic nugget: both a Top and a Bottom always has space to the left. I got this from a trading book I can't recall the title to, but I read this last couple of years and that was gold. I remembered it instantly as Eurusdd gave us his Transient Price Theory....
Several people have acknowledged this post of Vlady's as very meaningful to them but unfortunately I can't see it yet (sorry Vlady!). Can anyone please help me out?

For instance:

"But here's another magic nugget: both a Top and a Bottom always has space to the left."

I really can't see how this is a magic nugget. It's like saying the top of Everest has space all around it on a plane parallel to the Earth. Of course the top or bottom has space to the left, otherwise it wouldn't be a top or bottom! It will also have space to the right.

And:

"But in our case, the LEFT side can mean that in the past it was recurrent but after this price bar.... is completely transient."

How can it become completely transient in the future if in the past it was left-side recurrent? Or do you mean it can become right-side-only transient?

And:

"That's what that picture is saying. It's not a Top/Bottom but it has the opposite of the definition I gave above. And, to me, it is recurrent after a period of time (h)."

I can't see how knowing that a price that was recurrent in past can help us in the future. There are many prices that are left-side recurrent but right-side transient (for a given value of h) . Also prices that are left-side transient and right-side recurrent. And of course prices that are fully transient (left and right), and prices that are fully recurrent.. I know this is a probability game, and fully transient prices are the rarest, but I don't understand what Vlady is saying about the importance of left-side recurrent prices. If indeed that is what he's saying!

Thanks anyway Vlady, I always enjoy your posts. But can anyone please enlighten me?
You reap what you sow.
  • #8,685
  • Sep 20, 2014 1:31am Sep 20, 2014 1:31am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Several people have acknowledged this post of Vlady's as very meaningful to them but unfortunately I can't see it yet (sorry Vlady!).
Wicks! I look for wicks!

Not every wick will be a candidate but a wick is a visible sign that the price action called "Now" didn't stay at that part of the bar for very long. It's the difference between the extreme price level and where time opened or closed.

if time before that was transient, what are the chances time will be transient in the future? Well what if h bars into the future of the bar/time you are looking at already tells you? What happens at h+1? H+2? +3? Has price gone back? DO YOU THINK IT MIGHT.

I think I mentioned this in a post Aaaaaages ago...perhaps a month ago. Put FreeFox's indicator on the 1M and watch it. Take a piece of paper and write down what you are seeing. I'm not saying the 1M is important, I'm saying it's like life has been sped up so you can observe the change really quickly.

Baillie had the right idea I drawing the line (like support/resistance) but it's more like a magnet. Or a rock in field. It attracts or it repels...

lLook at the image that this whole post is referring to. I drew it and highlighted the area and projected the area out to the right. It's for USDMXN. Both Baillie and I came to the same level using different ways. Why? From my side, the above and prev posts is how I do it. Concept? TZ.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,686
  • Sep 20, 2014 2:02am Sep 20, 2014 2:02am
Quoting jackprobe
{quote} Hi Ephisi, Does a black hole have a strong magnet, that will "eat" all aircraft and spacecraft which fly near it? I think we will visit 2865-2879 again on next Monday. Thanks
Honestly i ahev to go back to the begining of the thread and start reading all over again. i want to understand all the theoretical aspects. i see how the tools work. Dont know about that black hole. lol

1.2855/60 will be possible retracement. for next wave up before down
  • #8,687
  • Sep 20, 2014 2:11am Sep 20, 2014 2:11am
I am still thinking how to show mydeep appreciation to EURUSDD for making me start thinking very differently and efficiently regarding forex trading with all his insightful trading concepts, i have been a quite follower of his wonderful posts, any ways for now Thank YOU MY MENTOR EURUSDD for allowing me to know what it takes to see the light even at a glance.

Regards
  • #8,688
  • Sep 20, 2014 3:04am Sep 20, 2014 3:04am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Wicks! I look for wicks! Not every wick will be a candidate but a wick is a visible sign that the price action called "Now" didn't stay at that part of the bar for very long. It's the difference between the extreme price level and where time opened or closed. if time before that was transient, what are the chances time will be transient in the future? Well what if h bars into the future of the bar/time you are looking at already tells you? What happens at h+1? H+2? +3? Has price gone back? DO YOU THINK IT MIGHT. I think I mentioned this...
Thanks Vlady. Yeah, I understand about the wicks and how they usually form. How they tend to alternate between top wicks and bottom wicks, acting like pivot points. That's how I usually trade them.

So, just to make sure we're talking about the same thing, on your USDMXN chart (re-attached below), are you expecting the area in the blue box to be transient based on the price action in the yellow area to the left of it? In other words, you would trade away from the area (long) as soon as you saw the bottom wick on the bar just to the left of the blue box?

Or are you saying that price will eventually return to the area so you would trade towards the area (short) once the blue box has formed?

Whichever one it is, I can't really see how the price action in the yellow area before the blue box would lead you to that conclusion. Sure there were recurrent prices, also a few wicks in, below and above the area. So what? I must be thick, but I can't see how you can generate a reliable signal from that! Oh well, back to the drawing board...

By the way, one thing that got me thinking after writing my last post was this:

1) If a true top has lots of space to the left, then a top which has bars to the left can't be the top. The price will eventually go higher.
2) Wait until price the drops enough to give you good risk/reward, then enter long expecting the last false top to be broken.

Is this tradeable? Probably not! Price might drop a hell of a lot after you enter before it breaks the top. If lots of bars were hitting the false top then it was obviously an area of strong resistance. Also, what about double tops? Is it really true that a top always has space to the left?

Just thinking aloud! Thanks again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Vlady_USDMXN.jpg Size: 70 KB
You reap what you sow.
  • #8,689
  • Edited 9:46pm Sep 20, 2014 3:24am | Edited 9:46pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Honestly i ahev to go back to the begining of the thread and start reading all over again. i want to understand all the theoretical aspects. i see how the tools work. Dont know about that black hole. lol 1.2855/60 will be possible retracement. for next wave up before down
i think you are right, i must read them again, it worth. Every time i read them, i got something .... If that black hole has a big magnet power, it will pull any thing to go to it. In this case, my "black hole" is around 2865-2879, and yours around 2855-2860 . I have checked my chart again, i think you are right.
I learn a lot from this thread, and Eurusdd's other threads. Now i just need to see the price, i do not "guess" it. I will try to be discipline, i may not trade if there is no clear signal. As a saying goes, we may not "buy a cat In a sack".
Similarity can change your life !
  • #8,690
  • Sep 20, 2014 4:39am Sep 20, 2014 4:39am
Quoting FX-Jay
Feel free to keep a screen shot of this and haunt me with it My current projections: (P.S. I put my money where my mouth is, so you can bet that I will be losing money if those projections didn't work, but yet again, the account is up 40% since Monday so...) In chronological order: - Short USD/CHF aiming for at least 0.93 by Monday night / European close - Short USD/MXN aiming for at least 13.15 by Monday night / European close - Long EUR/USD aiming for at least 1.299 by Tuesday night / European close - Long Brent Crude Oil aiming for at least...
Hmm E/U 1.299 by next week indeed probable
I want more brain power!
  • #8,691
  • Sep 20, 2014 5:54am Sep 20, 2014 5:54am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} careful with your risk management though. Like I stated earlier, it's not really a grade A setup in my opinion. They are both strong currencies, so there might be a tendency to range and/or whipsaw a bit. I only posted the setup as it was forming in order to illustrate how I play the TZs/RZs...trade safe.
Thanks Litechild. I sent you a PM .
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #8,692
  • Sep 20, 2014 5:57am Sep 20, 2014 5:57am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Hmm E/U 1.299 by next week indeed probable
I would like to look at 2920 - 2925, if it goes through 2875. I am agree with Ephisi, on next Monday will look at 2855-2860 first. It can be go down first, before goes through 2875.
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #8,693
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:01am Sep 20, 2014 6:01am
Don't know if I'm doing this right with all the brains we have here (too many to mention) but on my convoluted way of looking at it I have 1.29942 as a price that needs re-visiting. Don't know about the timing - haven't worked out how to do that yet.
  • #8,694
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:09am Sep 20, 2014 6:09am
Quoting handy148
Don't know if I'm doing this right with all the brains we have here (too many to mention) but on my convoluted way of looking at it I have 1.29942 as a price that needs re-visiting. Don't know about the timing - haven't worked out how to do that yet.
I have that price too. What time frame?
i have a differing theory about Return Time, but we have the same price for the upper range limit.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,695
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:19am Sep 20, 2014 6:19am
Let's do some calculation on the probability of closing a trade in green with similarity. This is just to confirm the 97%, and has nothing to with probability in my system.

Here i have a series of 23 trades.

Very basic math:

(1/23)*100 = 4,348%

100-4,348 = 95,652 %
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Skærmbillede 2014-09-20 kl. 13.11.18.png Size: 166 KB
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #8,696
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:32am Sep 20, 2014 6:32am
vlady - 1.2994 was based on H4.
  • #8,697
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:56am Sep 20, 2014 7:56am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Great! So we're still applying the TZ rules and of course you mention h, which I wont reveal here and haven't shared with anyone - that stays between you and me! {quote}
Thats not fair! how about us who are not so intellectuals and wanted top learn Why is this thread so much secret. I thought FF is about sharing and caring.
  • #8,698
  • Sep 20, 2014 8:37am Sep 20, 2014 8:37am
Quoting pedma
{quote} I would like to look at 2920 - 2925, if it goes through 2875. I am agree with Ephisi, on next Monday will look at 2855-2860 first. It can be go down first, before goes through 2875.
I looking for the levels you mentioned and yes it could of course go down first. The 1.299ish level is on the H4 and chance of it transient is 3%, on D1 that level looks rather recurrent to me so there is added confidence of a 1.299ish revisit. I consider this valid for 44 or so hours when market open else we witness a 3% event. I'm usually wrong though and if so then its another "what not to do"
I want more brain power!
  • #8,699
  • Sep 20, 2014 9:01am Sep 20, 2014 9:01am
Let me ask a question, Do you make a positive trade by setting your take profit in the transient zone OR by setting your take profit in the areas just above or below the transient zone; depending which way the market is moving to.

North trader, think of it this way; the higher your (h) is, the LESS transient zones you will have.
The lower your (h) is, the more transient zones you will have.

So, think about this, transient meaning: (passing through) do you want to find more areas that price passes through or less?

It is possible to make very good pips both ways but in my opinion much easier and much quicker knowing price likes to pass through more frequently.
  • #8,700
  • Sep 20, 2014 9:49am Sep 20, 2014 9:49am
Quoting jackprobe
{quote} i think you are right, i must read them again, it worth. Every time i read them, i got something .... If that black hole has a big magnet power, it will pull any thing to go to it. In this case, my "black hole" is around 2865-2879, and yours around 2855-2860 . I have checked my chart again, i think you are right. I learn a lot from this thread, and Eurusdd's other threads. Now i just need to see the price, i do not "guess" it. I will try to be discipline, i may not trade if there is no clear signal. As a saying goes, we may not...
just keep at it, keep reading the thread and watching price action. you will have many more eureka moments. i had about 20 within 2 days. you will not have them all at once.
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