There seems to be a well-defined path price is following! That is it!!! Now, this is becoming a revelation.
- #8,643
- Sep 19, 2014 1:34pm Sep 19, 2014 1:34pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Consistency is Key!! | 1,297 Posts
- #8,646
- Edited 1:58pm Sep 19, 2014 1:44pm | Edited 1:58pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 2,254 Posts
{quote} Brilliant results, my friend. even though in trading the LEAST thing i care about is the winning rate (i look at stopped out trades as pruning which helps to grow the capital), I must admit that %100 win rate looks incredible! I am more interested in knowing about your stop loss. thanks for sharing your knowledge.
I don't expect the win rate to remain 100% it should eventually drop to 90% since I'm taking 90%+ probability trades. So the concept that I am using in picking trades should apply also to my winning rate. When are these losses going to show up, I can't tell, but I sure do hope that it won't be in the eur/usd call because I'm certain people here will make sure to rub it in my face and forget all about the other 84 (now 90) profitable calls
The most important thing in this system is money management specially that I don't use SL. You wouldn't want to loose all the profits gained in 90 trades on 1 unprofitable trade. It's up to each one to chose his/her own money management methods. What works fr me may not work for you (depends on your risk tolerance and how deep your pockets are).
What I do is that I buy/sell a 0.5 contact once I first spot the signal. If it goes against me I add 0.25 lots every 30 to 50 pips (depending on the signal's probability). Remember that I'm trading a 10K account and I have lots of reserve money that I am willing to add if needed (but I would rather keep them out of the account).
My signals usualy range between 1 day and a week, I usualy hope that price goes against me for some time (that's where the most money is made). In the end you know that you have a 90%+ chance to get back to you TP, even if you don't you will manage to close lots of profitable trades while price is playing in between. (that's how for example i made 100+ pips in eur/usd and usd/chf in the last 2 days eventhough they are now so far from my targets).
One amazing thing I realized is that even if the 10% chance occurs and the TP doesn't get hit, the price tends to get as close as possible to your target (still that could be 10s of pips) few hours before it expires... so if you were averaging down/up correctly you will almost surely end up with a small profit or very small loss. In very rare cases (probably less than 1%) price just goes as far away from your entry price and never comes back even close or give you a retrace before expiry, that's why you shouldn't go crazy with the volumes, if you know that 90% of your trades will be highly profitable, 9% will be either BE or small win or small loss, and 1% will be a big loss then my advice is to settle with small/medium volumes compared to your account size and the losses (even the big ones) will only be the size of one fish in the sea of profits.
Hope the above helps.
Jay
- #8,648
- Sep 19, 2014 1:54pm Sep 19, 2014 1:54pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #8,649
- Sep 19, 2014 2:01pm Sep 19, 2014 2:01pm
Strawbale: Most of them are connected to the similarity principle. Like I usually do, I will give calls first for you to see how effective it is before I release any math etc.... Without effective calls, everything is BS!
in my opinion you're saying too much, the world is not ready for all these queens Don't use both feet to test the depth of the river
- #8,650
- Sep 19, 2014 2:07pm Sep 19, 2014 2:07pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 2,254 Posts
{quote} i know
What I have released so far, forms the basis for the next thing. The key system. But first we have to make sure a lot of people are familiar with the basic concepts first. So, far there are exceptional guys here, applying things in different ways. Now, it is time to put it all together.....
- #8,654
- Sep 19, 2014 2:19pm Sep 19, 2014 2:19pm
{quote} The world is about to end: lol. so we better release what is there. What I have released so far, forms the basis for the next thing. The key system. But first we have to make sure a lot of people are familiar with the basic concepts first. So, far there are exceptional guys here, applying things in different ways. Now, it is time to put it all together.....
Don't use both feet to test the depth of the river
- #8,657
- Sep 19, 2014 2:36pm Sep 19, 2014 2:36pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
{quote} Hey Tashkent, I don't expect the win rate to remain 100% it should eventually drop to 90% since I'm taking 90%+ probability trades. So the concept that I am using in picking trades should apply also to my winning rate. When are these losses going to show up, I can't tell, but I sure do hope that it won't be in the eur/usd call because I'm certain people here will make sure to rub it in my face and forget all about the other 84 (now 90) profitable calls
Really appreciate your response!
As Above, So Below
- #8,658
- Sep 19, 2014 2:58pm Sep 19, 2014 2:58pm
- | Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,356 Posts | Online Now
- #8,659
- Sep 19, 2014 3:22pm Sep 19, 2014 3:22pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #8,660
- Sep 19, 2014 4:06pm Sep 19, 2014 4:06pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
{quote} Allow me to answer the above in a live example, and I'm sure that given what I've said before and what about to say now will allow you to easily crack the code.
I really appreciate you sharing your thoughts and posts. I think I've replicated the "map" of what you're seeing. I only use FreeFox's Transient_Zone's application. I have the h value and can confirm that it matches your predicted expiry at Monday afternoon session. I have mine as 4PM.
For everyone else:
What I can say is that there is still a few ways to use the information to hand.
From what I've seen of this "map", I would describe this as potentially further consolidation... just on a taller price range, which includes the projected price of 1.299X. A move back up to this price doesn't invalidate anything (doesn't create a bull) yet. On a weekly view, this doesn't show but it starts to on the Daily and lower. Consequently, even if price reached 2754.... it still has a reason to return to 2990 and the whole shape of this cluster is not invalidated. It also fits a Wave 4 EW structure that I've been eyeing. I know Jay believes this could actually become a bull... and I need further Fundamental evidence or clues for me to understand this... but it would still require a breakout of this cluster between 2990 and potentially 2750. That 250 range is nothing compared to upside or downside of 1000+ pips.
Now obviously, Jay is already in and can use a larger funded account to hedge bi-directionally. For those of us needing to get in, the playbook is different and MM is definitely a must. Swing trading to get in close to swing bottoms and tops is required. That's not the focus here... but this map is now a good guide for the activity on Sunday/Monday. I'll be watching it carefully!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it