Cfdtalleong sent you a pm
{quote} Vlad you're one of the smartest guys around here and you totally know how to ask your questions in order to get a very clear answer whether directly or indirectly, I totally congratulate you for that. That's why I'm gonna throw out more hints in my answer then you were expectingSo here you go: 1- There is only one theory I use in this system, the theory of TZ .. nothing else whatsoever. A quick look at my results will show you that I am taking perfectly profitable trades in pairs that I don't even know what their symbols stand for
...
I want more brain power!
- #8,623
- Sep 19, 2014 9:44am Sep 19, 2014 9:44am
{quote} Vlad you're one of the smartest guys around here and you totally know how to ask your questions in order to get a very clear answer whether directly or indirectly, I totally congratulate you for that. That's why I'm gonna throw out more hints in my answer then you were expecting
{quote} Vlad you're one of the smartest guys around here and you totally know how to ask your questions in order to get a very clear answer whether directly or indirectly, I totally congratulate you for that. That's why I'm gonna throw out more hints in my answer then you were expecting
- #8,626
- Sep 19, 2014 9:48am Sep 19, 2014 9:48am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
{quote} That's why I'm gonna throw out more hints in my answer then you were expecting
1- There is only one theory I use in this system, the theory of TZ .. nothing else whatsoever. 2- My charts (the ones used for this strategy) have 0 indicators! Yes ZERO. They are as clean as a chart can get.
Great! So we're still applying the TZ rules and of course you mention h, which I wont reveal here and haven't shared with anyone - that stays between you and me!
3- I have discussed with you my views on euro in general for the medium term, but this call (1.299) has nothing to do with those views, you could have hid the name of the chart for me, and I would have given you the same number.
4- When I got the first signal, I was using a certain H, and this H allowed me to project the time at which the signal expires. The signal was of 90% probability of occurrence. As time passes you would assume that the probability should get less as the price moves away from your target. This is true in general, but sometimes you have another H that comes to the rescue (could be on the same timeframe or a lower one)
Not worried, yet, about diminishing probabilities. But my question about the sequence is probably one way to gauge the strength of that h expiry.
5- I don't have to weigh priorities since I only have one in this system which is TZ & my probability %s depend only on that and the way I understand probabilities (that's why my 90% is different from EURUSDD's 90%, since he uses multiple factors to come up with this probabilities)
Many many thanks in advance mate! You're a genius!
Feel free to PM me the answers if I'm shaving too close like a Gillette razor! Vlad
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #8,627
- Sep 19, 2014 9:51am Sep 19, 2014 9:51am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
{quote} now that is spelling it out.
.WHEN WHERE and HOW = Predictable market!
Predictable market + Competent trader =
Not me yet of course but I'd say I eliminated a fair bit of...ok make that some "what not to dos" heh.
I want more brain power!
- #8,629
- Sep 19, 2014 9:59am Sep 19, 2014 9:59am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
why is fxjay ignoring me? i dont get it. 
anyway i wont ignore you.
anyway i wont ignore you.
- #8,630
- Sep 19, 2014 10:05am Sep 19, 2014 10:05am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
- #8,631
- Sep 19, 2014 10:16am Sep 19, 2014 10:16am
{quote} Mate, haven't had a chance to say hello! But.... HELLO! You and Jay are doing some good stuff on a different branch of it. I envy you guys - you've got full time dedication to this and I've got people telling me their computers don't work. I'm more and more convinced I've got to do this full time. Gonna find a way guys, you're inspiring me like you wouldn't believe!
But exiting stuff.
Now definitely goodnight
- #8,632
- Sep 19, 2014 10:22am Sep 19, 2014 10:22am
{quote} As I mentioned above about H, that's in stone. And I also get the expiration of it - it's one of the light-bulb moments about what you did that gives credence to your conviction. So I have to respect it. But then if you have received another H, say H2.... does H2 TZ get taken out first then H1 TZ? Would both TZ be taken out from the same direction? Or is each the alternate of the other?
So my system is giving a 90% probability for the eur/usd to reach 1.299 by Tuesday's European Session closing, I got this probability few days ago and I directly stated it here. At that point everyone was cheering that yes it will happen since price was just like 40 something pips away from there.
Well, as time passed by and the euro kept on sliding down, my system gave another signal with a 96% probability this time. What does this signal say? It is saying that eur/usd will see 1.3 with a 96% certainty by Thursday's Asian session close. People at this stage would think you are crazy for 'catching the falling knife', but from my point of view having 90 and 96% probabilities are just too high to be missed. Wouldn't hurt to be called crazy or stupid for a while
Does that mean it WILL get there for sure? NO , but am I willing to miss this opportunity? NO
Since the day I called the above number I have made north of 100 pips on eur/usd alone and my statements are here for everyone to see
I can't stress enough on money management and 'smart trading'.
Jay
- #8,633
- Sep 19, 2014 10:24am Sep 19, 2014 10:24am
This is THE most important sentence.... so, how do you define probability? Is it that 1 in 4 chance 1:4 has 4 choices and only 1 probable and 3 improbable? Or is probability more like the bell curve model that ping pong balls fall into.... and your 90% is based on a "Sigma" type event where S1 is likely, and S25 is "bloody-hell/never to be seen in my liftime" likely? So is the calculation based on both price P, time H and its difference to TZ(H-expiry)? Many many thanks in advance mate! You're a genius!
- #8,634
- Sep 19, 2014 10:27am Sep 19, 2014 10:27am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 2,254 Posts
{quote} Allow me to answer the above in a live example, and I'm sure that given what I've said before and what about to say now will allow you to easily crack the code So my system is giving a 90% probability for the eur/usd to reach 1.299 by Tuesday's European Session closing, I got this probability few days ago and I directly stated it here. At that point everyone was cheering that yes it will happen since price was just like 40 something pips away from there. Well, as time passed by and the euro kept on sliding down, my system gave another signal...
Just passing thru but You caught my attention. Love your boldness!!!
- #8,635
- Sep 19, 2014 10:34am Sep 19, 2014 10:34am
{quote} \Bold spirit. Good for this business!
You're a great influence, and I really hope that you'll be back to sharing your views with us.
- #8,636
- Sep 19, 2014 10:50am Sep 19, 2014 10:50am
{quote} Actually I' think FX jay and myself are trading almost exact same way not sure of his h size , and im sure he has refined it much better But exiting stuff. Now definitely goodnight
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
- #8,638
- Sep 19, 2014 11:09am Sep 19, 2014 11:09am
- | Additional Username | Joined May 2013 | 724 Posts
Well I know I'm not the brightest but I'm sure as hell not stupid Sometimes when you get too focused and intent on trying to figure something out you fail to see what is right next to you cause your eyes are only looking forward and we humans have lousy peripheral vision! Not saying I've got it and have a shiny light bulb but rather I'm going to use this philosophy to re-orientate myself and hopefully achieve clarity on what I doing wrong. I urge those still struggling to do the same.
1)I was using Freefox's indicator as a guide and it was immensely helpful in helping visualise some stuff but I was not certain if I was using it right and that led to doubts in my analysis. This no longer affects me thanks be to those who gave me the confidence.
2)I had BIG expectations of TZ but the recent going around in circles made me suspect if I was perhaps asking too much of something seemingly simple. The many brilliant people has strengthen the conviction that indeed TZ is powerful and that my efforts are worthwhile
3)I was very thinking in the manner of "what does price choose to be recurrent 97% means". Simple acceptance of it as fact and thinking "what can I do given price is 97% recurrent" has yielded more positively. It may seem the same but the resultant thought process is different.
Sometimes when you get too focused and intent on trying to figure something out you fail to see what is right next to you cause your eyes are only looking forward and we humans have lousy peripheral vision! Not saying I've got it and have a shiny light bulb but rather I'm going to use this philosophy to re-orientate myself and hopefully achieve clarity on what I doing wrong. I urge those still struggling to do the same.1)I was using Freefox's indicator as a guide and it was immensely helpful in helping visualise some stuff but I was not certain if I was using it right and that led to doubts in my analysis. This no longer affects me thanks be to those who gave me the confidence.
2)I had BIG expectations of TZ but the recent going around in circles made me suspect if I was perhaps asking too much of something seemingly simple. The many brilliant people has strengthen the conviction that indeed TZ is powerful and that my efforts are worthwhile
3)I was very thinking in the manner of "what does price choose to be recurrent 97% means". Simple acceptance of it as fact and thinking "what can I do given price is 97% recurrent" has yielded more positively. It may seem the same but the resultant thought process is different.
I want more brain power!
- #8,639
- Sep 19, 2014 11:18am Sep 19, 2014 11:18am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
- #8,640
- Sep 19, 2014 11:24am Sep 19, 2014 11:24am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2012 | 2,254 Posts