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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #6,981
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:16pm Sep 18, 2014 10:16pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Ian, hope you are well. Since the Elliott wave threads are populated now by folks a) having defined their own rules b) using different approaches of EW without stating clearly which one they are using (traditional, HEW, OEW, Neely, Hennessy etc.) c) not knowing the rules and guidelines at all d) mixing all the different approaches etc. I simply stay away, because I feel like in mad-house when visiting the EW-threads Is it asked too much, if one creates for every different approach an own thread? Some years ago the EW threads here were...
Infinitus

There is a HEW thread. At present there's a guy doing the FTSE and DAX. Unfortunately I don't follow them at all. However, do feel free to pop your head around the door!

However, I agree, since I first came on here I've found the analysis has not been as strong as before.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,982
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:18pm Sep 18, 2014 10:18pm
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} I subscribed both HEW and EWI (Elliott Wave International). I had many loosing trades and many winning trades as well. But as Ian mentioned, EW is not a trading system. It is a technical analysis tool like many other. Some times I tried to trade on the direction of corrections or sometimes wrong counts caused loosing trades. Good analysis does not mean good trading results. Managing a trade and analysing a market are very different professions. Classic EW (There are some service providers which offer wave counts of some markets. Most famous...
Good comments AE!

It does help to understand the fine details of HEW to get a stronger understanding of the even small moves that can ruin a count or imply an alternative. Having done this for 4 years now I find this invaluable.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,983
  • Sep 18, 2014 10:46pm Sep 18, 2014 10:46pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} A sweeping generalization of forum members who posted here in this thread as if being in a mad-house, is such a subjective view that they have to be in a particular EW school and profess in knowing all guidelines and rules before they can post in this thread, otherwise they have to find somewhere else to post - is such a ridiculous and exclusive statement, that I think you are trying to make up your own rules for this thread and forum. Don't forget one of the purpose of this forum or another other forum is to share and learn freely from...

LOL

Really, I have to laugh

First to your questions:

a) I was a regular poster in various EW threads over the past years - when you would have been long enough around you would know me

b) when you would be interested, it would be very easy to find out, when I posted my last EW counts. Actually it was yesterday, but not in the EW threads (I gave already reason why I stopped posting here or in other EW threads)

c) is it hard to learn all the basic rules and guidelines of EW?

As to this:

Don't forget one of the purpose of this forum or another other forum is to share and learn freely from each other, whose knowledge levels are relative and different.
What you have suggested is that beginners and intermediate EW learners should not post in this thread. Who are you?

I have seen sooooo many people lately here with very curious EW counts, justifications for those etc., where it was obvious that they neither were interested in learning the stuff nor capable of discussing the stuff because of lack of knowledge of the stuff.

Would you feel welcome in a forum where participants are discussing stuff like quantum physics or other highly sophisticated stuff without having done your very basic homeworks in this field?

I have often heard the lame excuse when asking people about the logic in their counts, that they would have "developed" their own stuff.

There is no problem when beginners show their count, but it is very annoying when the very basic rules and guidelines of EW are not obeyed. Ido think, that for example Ian and me too have a great history of explaining and teaching the EW stuff over and over again.

Look at your response to Ian yesterday when he asked some very valid questions regarding your count. What shall I say: you felt stressed. So what is the purpose for you to show your "counts" in this forum, when you are stressed by some questions? That is the question.........


And lastly:

......that I think you are trying to make up your own rules for this thread and forum

Hmmm, strange conclusion. I even left the thread for the reasons given.


What is the problem for you to open a new thread under the title:

Skyhoks very special combination of Neely and Hennessy


Or what is the problem to simply state in the postings that you are not using traditional EW but Neowave or Hennessy? Would it hurt?


And as for my subjective view of the mad-house:

is the purpose of an internet-forum not offer subjective views? Inquiring minds want to know.......
  • #6,984
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:46pm Sep 18, 2014 11:46pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Apologies, I was not trying to be awkward but trying to work out how this could be used effectively. From my perspective, having provided a forecasting service for over 10 years, I know I'd have no clients if I couldn't provide a more structured approach in which I had a higher degree of successful targets that are hit. Retrospective is just not good enough. There's still room for different projection targets so it's not 100% accurate (well, HEW is but I'm not...) I also know that many can't work with HEW because it requires so much attention...
It is o.k. There are hundreds of ways to trade, and may be many EW ways to trade. Each trader finds their own and develop it to perfection or trade profitably, that's the purpose of it, then let it be. It is hard to say others are wrong and ours are the only way.
Yes, I have developed some minor techniques that I can use for better entry, exit and management of my trades, and I find them very useful and making headway in recent trending markets, and felt excited about it, that doesn't mean I broke EW rules or make up my own that i should drop them.
Just as much as I would appreciate with open mind other traders finding new successful ways in trading.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,985
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:52pm Sep 18, 2014 11:52pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Wow, take it easy Ian, I tried answering your questions objectively. Not all EW schools are perfect, yes I use methods from different schools and find them working very well in forecasting and also in trading. They rather fill in the missing links. I don't see any Status Quo in sticking to one particular EW school. Sorry that I didn't find your method useful for reasons I won't mention here, because you have to sell your method here that you have invented. I'll leave it at that.
skyhok

Take this with a pinch of salt but I took your EURUSD decline and below shows how HEW handled it. The 1.3332 low was the end of the first 5-wave decline - so Wave (a) and the Wave (b) a paltry 14.6%. From there please see the Wave (c) progression and note the alternation and how HEW was able to handle it without these running corrections... I am making the assumption, since you've looked at HEW, that you understand the structure for the ratio clusters used...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AlternationthroughEURUSD_zpse10602bf.png Size: 159 KB
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,986
  • Sep 19, 2014 12:39am Sep 19, 2014 12:39am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} skyhok Take this with a pinch of salt but I took your EURUSD decline and below shows how HEW handled it. The 1.3332 low was the end of the first 5-wave decline - so Wave (a) and the Wave (b) a paltry 14.6%. From there please see the Wave (c) progression and note the alternation and how HEW was able to handle it without these running corrections... I am making the assumption, since you've looked at HEW, that you understand the structure for the ratio clusters used... {image}
Thank you for the chart, it's a very promising count. Do you have a trade setup for it or is it ready for a trade setup ?
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,987
  • Sep 19, 2014 1:37am Sep 19, 2014 1:37am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Thank you for the chart, it's a very promising count. Do you have a trade setup for it or is it ready for a trade setup ?
This is the count I have been following for some while, not one I have just "invented"

Trade set up - not ready yet ... Soon...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,988
  • Sep 19, 2014 2:39am Sep 19, 2014 2:39am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} This is the count I have been following for some while, not one I have just "invented" Trade set up - not ready yet ... Soon...
Thank you.
You might find other forum members would show greater interest and really want to know your method of trading when you show a wave count near a possible trade setup or ready for a setup. ATM I can only appreciate that Ian can count.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,989
  • Edited 3:19am Sep 19, 2014 2:40am | Edited 3:19am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} skyhok Take this with a pinch of salt but I took your EURUSD decline and below shows how HEW handled it. The 1.3332 low was the end of the first 5-wave decline - so Wave (a) and the Wave (b) a paltry 14.6%. From there please see the Wave (c) progression and note the alternation and how HEW was able to handle it without these running corrections... I am making the assumption, since you've looked at HEW, that you understand the structure for the ratio clusters used... {image}
What is the target for the final? (I think that will be 1.2783 approximately)
  • #6,990
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:14am Sep 19, 2014 3:14am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} What is the target for the final? (I think that will be 1,2783 approximately)
It has a range and will need to be judged when Wave -c- develops. However, broadly the 1.2744-75 area is my favoured target... However a deeper one is around 1.2708.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,991
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:47am Sep 19, 2014 3:47am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} It has a range and will need to be judged when Wave -c- develops. However, broadly the 1.2744-75 area is my favoured target... However a deeper one is around 1.2708.
Thank you Ian!
skyhok, what it's your opinion.
  • #6,992
  • Sep 19, 2014 3:53am Sep 19, 2014 3:53am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} Thank you Ian! skyhok, what it's your opinion.
don't have a view on EURUSD ATM, follow Ian.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,993
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:03am Sep 19, 2014 4:03am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} It has a range and will need to be judged when Wave -c- develops. However, broadly the 1.2744-75 area is my favoured target... However a deeper one is around 1.2708.
Currently 4-hour & hourly momentum are bearish which does not provide a safe entry. We'll have to see how it progresses. Daily momentum has begun to develop a small bullish divergence but I wouldn't trust it unless hourly & 4-hour also develop bullish divergences. Therefore we need this decline to be a painful choppy one. In 4-hour momentum I don't see much hope of a solid bullish divergence until the very end of today - maybe into Monday.

If we get a reversal without the divergences we'll have to look for reversal patterns.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,994
  • Edited 5:01am Sep 19, 2014 4:12am | Edited 5:01am
I do have a view on EURCAD that I've been posting in the EURCAD thread and keeping both eyes on it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily 11.png Size: 58 KB

Using Traditional EW guideline that an impulse wave with an extended 5th wave will be retraced by the next wave of the same degree to the travel of wave (ii) of the extended wave. ( The Major Works of R.N. Elliott p.136 )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADH1 10.png Size: 58 KB

Now zeroing-in on the narrow target zone with it's final wave down.
safe setup : a buy stop above present price level.
bold setup : buy limit in target zone.
or both with half lot.

Wish me luck!
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #6,995
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:24am Sep 19, 2014 4:24am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Currently 4-hour & hourly momentum are bearish which does not provide a safe entry. We'll have to see how it progresses. Daily momentum has begun to develop a small bullish divergence but I wouldn't trust it unless hourly & 4-hour also develop bullish divergences. Therefore we need this decline to be a painful choppy one. In 4-hour momentum I don't see much hope of a solid bullish divergence until the very end of today - maybe into Monday. If we get a reversal without the divergences we'll have to look for reversal patterns.
A possibility.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Posibil.jpg Size: 302 KB
  • #6,996
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:36am Sep 19, 2014 4:36am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} A possibility. {image}
Not in HEW. An expanded flat will only extend around 38.2% of the first correction - at most 41.4% in EUR... In less liquid currencies & equities I'd allow for 50% - but no more. Hence your "guessing" on the a / b in the Wave -iv-. In HEW you have to measure, ensure the relationship between the Wave ii and Wave iv and not just plop numbers and letters above/below swing highs/lows because it "looks about right"!!!
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,997
  • Sep 19, 2014 4:46am Sep 19, 2014 4:46am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Not in HEW. An expanded flat will only extend around 38.2% of the first correction - at most 41.4% in EUR... In less liquid currencies & equities I'd allow for 50% - but no more. Hence your "guessing" on the a / b in the Wave -iv-. In HEW you have to measure, ensure the relationship between the Wave ii and Wave iv and not just plop numbers and letters above/below swing highs/lows because it "looks about right"!!!
Not guessed, is a zigzag, the numbers speak, but not in HEW.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Val iv.jpg Size: 345 KB
  • #6,998
  • Sep 19, 2014 5:12am Sep 19, 2014 5:12am
Skyhok

There is an easy trade on Ian's chart that even a EW novice could make. Place stop above end of wave 4 and target new low. The risk/reward may not be to your liking but the trade is there.
Experienced traders may find Ian's counting style strange but evolution is natural.

I liken the situation to the following timeline:
Elliott Wave - Years Old - created with current knowledge of the day - Spark Gap transmitter - designed and built by experts of the time
HEW - Modern - created using computers/spreadsheets - Transistor radio - designed and built using modern technology giving improved performance.

Not all advances are good and some old ways are more enjoyable but to repeatedly make fireguards out of chocolate is a dumb activity.
Hopefully HEW will progress to DAB radio, not perfect but more efficient.
  • #6,999
  • Sep 19, 2014 7:37am Sep 19, 2014 7:37am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} Not guessed, is a zigzag, the numbers speak, but not in HEW. {image}
No, you haven't measured.

It is three wave - but not the way you think. And what does an initial 3-wave move risk?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3-waveEURUSD_zps04729599.png Size: 213 KB
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #7,000
  • Sep 19, 2014 9:20am Sep 19, 2014 9:20am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} No, you haven't measured. It is three wave - but not the way you think. And what does an initial 3-wave move risk? {image}
Shouldn't the fifth wave of c, (c), -b- and EFA finishing between 16:00 and 18:00 must be at least 50% ...
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