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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #48,321
  • Sep 18, 2014 11:56am Sep 18, 2014 11:56am
Quoting timtiririm
i agree it's a good point to go long but it's been such a bad day for me , I'm afraid to make another move....I think it's gonna go at least up to 109.00 but I feel exausted...
There is nothing wrong with sitting back and watching. Think about how you might trade whilst doing this...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,322
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:20pm Sep 18, 2014 12:20pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} There is nothing wrong with sitting back and watching. Think about how you might trade whilst doing this...
very true .. patience is needed sometimes (if not always)
  • #48,323
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:53pm Sep 18, 2014 12:53pm
Quoting mfoste1
On a monthly basis, since the early 90's here are the value levels. FV being near 107.38, very strong support at 98.20 region, overall a lot of attraction between 105-109.{image}

  • #48,324
  • Sep 18, 2014 1:14pm Sep 18, 2014 1:14pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} There is nothing wrong with sitting back and watching. Think about how you might trade whilst doing this...
thanks for the advice...think I need some sleep. I already know tonight's nightmare. a gang of drunk candlesticks wearing kilts and playing the bagpipe chasing me down the street.
  • #48,325
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:22pm Sep 18, 2014 2:22pm
i have been watching very carefully this pair for past month. Definetly it has some high target. Same scenario each time. Breaking the high, retrace and north. Same for weeks. Crazy pair.

I do not know if 110 is the end...
No emotions, just trade
  • #48,326
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:39pm Sep 18, 2014 2:39pm
A good GDP print next week for the US will send this pair to 110+.
  • #48,327
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:42pm Sep 18, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting Janut
i have been watching very carefully this pair for past month. Definetly it has some high target. Same scenario each time. Breaking the high, retrace and north. Same for weeks. Crazy pair. I do not know if 110 is the end...
I think it could hit 115 or 120 even eventually.. If the US economy keeps improving and rates were to rise, and the Japanese economy keeps stagnating or gets worse.
  • #48,328
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:44pm Sep 18, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote} I think it could hit 115 or 120 even eventually.. If the US economy keeps improving and rates were to rise, and the Japanese economy keeps stagnating or gets worse.
Does that mean you're considering a few longs beyond 110? If so, will you at least wait and see if you can short a potential retracement after the USD/JPY hits 110?
  • #48,329
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:49pm Sep 18, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Does that mean you're considering a few longs beyond 110? If so, will you at least wait and see if you can short a potential retracement after the USD/JPY hits 110?
I'm not sure what I will do if it gets there. It will most likely be well into next year before there is enough information to make a decision. For all we know, the US economy could fall apart in the next 6 months and the world economies could end up back at square one.
  • #48,330
  • Edited 8:17pm Sep 18, 2014 7:20pm | Edited 8:17pm
The yen is seems to have gotten into trading again after trading back and forth a few pips at the 108.760 mark. We're finally moving up at around 108.8-ish levels, and we're seeing an upward movement in the past few hours....wonder if it'll have enough momentum to pierce 109.00 before the day is over for me.


...praying for a large reversal to not occur after 109, but I know better to hope.

Between going long on the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY, I think some of my hair will turn white in the next few days from all this adrenaline and stress. Aaaaaand of course, I also happen to have university exams and homework due tomorrow....both of which I've procrastinated on.

I wonder what's more important: My academic future, or my money?

Decisions, decisions.

Edit: At 1:16am GMT, we reached the 109.1 mark. I've decided to hold onto my longs for now, and see what would happen around 109.5
  • #48,331
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:52pm Sep 18, 2014 8:52pm
Still riding that sucker!

Stop moved up again this morning and now has 1660 pips locked in!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ%2B20140919.jpg Size: 152 KB
Winners add to winning trades!
  • #48,332
  • Sep 18, 2014 8:56pm Sep 18, 2014 8:56pm
congrats, i only managed to lock 20 pips...

Quoting marshalmax
Still riding that sucker! Stop moved up again this morning and now has 1660 pips locked in! {image}
  • #48,333
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:04pm Sep 18, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting DailyFX
Japan Econ: Foreign buyers of bonds(Sep 12)is ¥ 839.0B and stock buying at ¥ 136.8B; prior bond buying ¥249.4B & prior stock buying ¥187.9B
More foreign bond buying, less stock buying, yet the yen sinks? Those negative rates are really doing some damage. Traders are dumping it, while investors are buying it.
  • #48,334
  • Sep 18, 2014 9:33pm Sep 18, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting DonaldPump
{quote} More foreign bond buying, less stock buying, yet the yen sinks? Those negative rates are really doing some damage. Traders are dumping it, while investors are buying it.

This is why..

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=504919
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #48,335
  • Sep 19, 2014 12:44am Sep 19, 2014 12:44am
will this hit 109.5 today since its all fundamentals now?
  • #48,336
  • Sep 19, 2014 12:59am Sep 19, 2014 12:59am
Quoting Vermillion
The yen is seems to have gotten into trading again after trading back and forth a few pips at the 108.760 mark. We're finally moving up at around 108.8-ish levels, and we're seeing an upward movement in the past few hours....wonder if it'll have enough momentum to pierce 109.00 before the day is over for me. ...praying for a large reversal to not occur after 109, but I know better to hope. Between going long on the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY, I think some of my hair will turn white in the next few days from all this adrenaline and stress. Aaaaaand...
If it is not too late.... stick with your university stuff until your course is over.
Think of it like a losing trade - what would you have to do to recover from that if you needed to in later life.

If you are any good at FX there is plenty of life left to make the money.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,337
  • Sep 19, 2014 7:08am Sep 19, 2014 7:08am
108.50 and 108 levels are likely to become next supports for the USDJPY if it sustains the break below 108.70.
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  • #48,338
  • Sep 19, 2014 7:43am Sep 19, 2014 7:43am
Still planning to hold my longs from 108.6 for now with SL set around 108.3-108.4, depending on what I see. I don't think there will be any significant reversals that go down to say, 108. We're probably going to dance around 108.5-.8 for a while. We're still looking at a overall bullish momentum, with the most significant resistance being around a few dozen pips near 110.65/110.66 (around August 2008). Short term bullish resistance will depend on whether it will not solidly go through 109, but we will likely not reach the latter halves of 109 given that the previous rush to 109.46 was due to the scottish referendum hype.

I think some people are hoping it'll go down to the ideal Fibonacci resistance of 107.4-ish levels from several days ago, given the massive spike in prices then.

Only question is what will happen over the weekend, which is anyone's guess I suppose. With no further major events this day, I get the feeling it'll be somewhat quiet this trading day; maybe a few dozen pips up or down, but certainly not like the wild ride we had in the past two days.

.....I wonder if I should hold onto 108.6 longs if the 108.6/108.7 support area holds for the day.
  • #48,339
  • Sep 19, 2014 8:43am Sep 19, 2014 8:43am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #48,340
  • Sep 19, 2014 9:09am Sep 19, 2014 9:09am
want to see if pair will hold above 109. No profit taking today, yet...
No emotions, just trade
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