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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #48,281
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:20pm Sep 17, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I need 108.55 for a safe exit

I am still long
  • #48,282
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:22pm Sep 17, 2014 11:22pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Most of the Japanese use trains and metros for transport and are switching to electric cars unlike the US where everyone has to drive 30 miles or so just to get to work.
Very true. That's just transport though.

Here's a good article on it if you're keen.

http://theenergycollective.com/jared...ompetitiveness

Just got a whoooole lot worse.

109.5 I reckon
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #48,283
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:24pm Sep 17, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting paddlepip
{quote} Very true. That's just transport though. Here's a good article on it if you're keen. http://theenergycollective.com/jared...ompetitiveness Just got a whoooole lot worse. 109.5 I reckon

Thanks
  • #48,284
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:28pm Sep 17, 2014 11:28pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Green pips to you. Appreciate your posts. Keep it up.
Thank you so much.
  • #48,285
  • Sep 17, 2014 11:51pm Sep 17, 2014 11:51pm
Gidday Yen masters

Well been clipping the ticket

Trying to save some longs to run through to 110

Want a load a massive one,but that is when

you get caught out.

I got my big ones out now

So if it drops back,I am safe
  • #48,286
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:27am Sep 18, 2014 12:27am
Quoting myelbow4
Going short
too early. Lots of USD buying still to come.
  • #48,287
  • Sep 18, 2014 12:28am Sep 18, 2014 12:28am
contemplating on setting a buy limit at around a 20 to 30 pip pullback from current level .. maybe around 108.55 or so.. hmm

i dont expect much more of a pullback then that imo, before continuing back up, that 110 is coming up fast. might have actually missed the train on this one
  • #48,288
  • Sep 18, 2014 1:14am Sep 18, 2014 1:14am
USDJPY is going up :
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People wont learn to post analysis in forums not "I think its down/up!"
  • #48,289
  • Sep 18, 2014 1:27am Sep 18, 2014 1:27am
Those of you who may be wondering about the long term prospects for the Yen only need to look on today's front page of FF.
The Japanese trade balance, click on the histogram symbol over to the right of the page.

Since May 2011 the trade balance has been negative, that is a fundamental weakness indicator.
There are other factors to consider, but this trade balance has normally been a healthy positive.
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Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,290
  • Sep 18, 2014 1:38am Sep 18, 2014 1:38am
Quoting wisemadguy
USDJPY is going up
What an astute and timely observation.
  • #48,291
  • Sep 18, 2014 1:56am Sep 18, 2014 1:56am
I looked up the bond rate: currently the Japanese 10 year bond yield is .57 on the Government 10Y. When it reaches 1.50%, that will mark the end. Take that for what it is worth to you. It is from V, guerrillaeconomist.com
  • #48,292
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:19am Sep 18, 2014 2:19am
On the long side can be the target about 109.40-70 area?!What do you think?
  • #48,293
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:54am Sep 18, 2014 2:54am
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  • #48,294
  • Sep 18, 2014 2:54am Sep 18, 2014 2:54am
Hello USD/JPY

Pays to off the big trades

These we pull backs can suck all your gains

Might be another cent in it before end off week

Would be nice to see 107 again just to lock in

some longs.
  • #48,295
  • Sep 18, 2014 3:17am Sep 18, 2014 3:17am
Quoting Greenstar
I looked up the bond rate: currently the Japanese 10 year bond yield is .57 on the Government 10Y. When it reaches 1.50%, that will mark the end. Take that for what it is worth to you. It is from V, guerrillaeconomist.com
Yes that is interesting. I watch the bond auction prices and have always marveled at the paltry rate even compared to somewhere like Germany.

This massive debt is the reason they need a 2% inflation rate, and an accompanying interest rate somewhat above zero.
If bond coupon rates get to your figure the load on the Japanese government will be enormous.
I foresee not the end, but a haircut for domestic bond holders. It will be unpopular but there will be little choice.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,296
  • Sep 18, 2014 3:44am Sep 18, 2014 3:44am
Quoting Liam0530
contemplating on setting a buy limit at around a 20 to 30 pip pullback from current level .. maybe around 108.55 or so.. hmm i dont expect much more of a pullback then that imo, before continuing back up, that 110 is coming up fast. might have actually missed the train on this one

I should have have held but my stop loss forced me out with a loss. I would have exited with a profit. Wrong time for my exit
  • #48,297
  • Sep 18, 2014 4:16am Sep 18, 2014 4:16am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I should have have held but my stop loss forced me out with a loss. I would have exited with a profit. Wrong time for my exit
On the whole subject of trading with or without stoploss there is a whole discussion here.
I confess that I do not often use SL any more, I became tired of losing in just the way you describe.
However you will need two things if you abandon the SL:
- low trade leverage (trade size : account balance)
- a plan for determining that you have made a bad call

If you are going to use 10:1 trade leverage or more then you should probably continue to use a SL, and devote some time to picking your entries better (a point I am still working on ).
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,298
  • Sep 18, 2014 4:18am Sep 18, 2014 4:18am
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Ro IMRAN Ro
  • #48,299
  • Sep 18, 2014 4:19am Sep 18, 2014 4:19am
Quoting Jamil7354
{image}

Why posted this?
  • #48,300
  • Sep 18, 2014 4:44am Sep 18, 2014 4:44am
Quoting Jamil7354
{image}
I have a hard time imagining the yen going up that much before the first few US rate hikes. Maybe late 2015, early 2016 we'll start to see the yen strengthen a little. Although even that seems optimistic. The last bear leg lasted 5 years, so it could be 3+ years before we see a significant, long term reversal. I'm interested to see if UJ traders are crazy enough to break the pre-2007 crisis levels. Line in the sand for dollar bulls is the yearly open of 105.44.
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