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Sonic R. System

  • #76,061
  • Sep 16, 2014 7:48am Sep 16, 2014 7:48am
GBPUSD

noticed the hanging man on W1 time frame.
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  • #76,062
  • Edited 9:35am Sep 16, 2014 9:23am | Edited 9:35am
GBPUSD:

The MMs might be bulls now, but it is still too early......

A few days of ranging and today the highest volume occurs when the MMs whack the price to lows. Those lows are only about 50 pips average from the middle of the range. Were the MMs loading shorts all that time in the range to then drop price only 50 pips to close? Or, were they loading longs and then whacked the price to accumulate more?

The latter sounds more reasonable, but more time is required here. Maybe the thing to do is to force ourselves to not think BULL until the price breaks above that range and heads to the upper whole number, and to not think BEAR until the price breaks below the lower half number which could present us with a bear trade of about 100 pips to the previous low at the half number below that one.

Tomorrow there is a lineup of GBP releases. This could be the time the MMs have already chosen to make their next definitive move, though it is still a day ahead of the Scottish vote. That could mean another day delay, and then maybe a substantial move!
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  • #76,063
  • Sep 16, 2014 9:48am Sep 16, 2014 9:48am
AUDUSD:

H4 is starting to show a bullish PA wave, and representing the price twice already bouncing up from a whole number that the MMs have been taking it below, presumably (PVSRA) first for closing of shorts and next for loading of longs. The upper half number looks like the key breakout level. It is 100 pips below a previous consolidation area that the Trend line is angling down towards. Price and Trend might meet around there if the MMs are bulls and get on with the show, which is probably at least a day away from starting.

We cannot know how the price will move next, so this is just a simple depiction of one possibility based on PVSRA and which could involve the price continuing to move up and down before a break up thru the half number area.
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  • #76,064
  • Edited 10:16am Sep 16, 2014 10:03am | Edited 10:16am
AUDUSD Long Trade Opened:

Classic entries based on series of bullish PA waves and a current retrace towards previous local support at the 1/4 level, and also based on this current series of bullilsh PA waves being the second act in a show that started with a previous series yesterday, both beginning from below the lower whole number (PVSRA).
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  • #76,065
  • Edited 11:13am Sep 16, 2014 10:46am | Edited 11:13am
USDCAD:

This looks bearish.

H1 is a H&S in progress, with a target around RWL. I suspect the upcoming USD releases could be the timing the MMs have for more downside. The next Asian session might bring a move up as those MMs manipulate prices higher to accumulate additional shorts with better prices. That is what I'd look for. But, keep in mind that there is always the possibility that if the MMs are strong bears they will, at some time and maybe more than once, do a Stop Hunt on shorts and that such a move could present an additional good shorting opportunity.

Also, in about an hour there is a CAD high impact release, and the MMs might have a move planned then that will enable them to accumulate more shorts at better prices,....if they are indeed bears. And meanwhile, the move down might therefore be to suck in bears that they can later Stop Hunt.
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Edit: And within very short time - just a matter of minutes since the original posting - the price manipulating Robber Bank MMs rushed to complete the H&S. Are they now back to being bulls, closing shorts and loading up longs ahead of this CAD release? That would be the logical conclusion, but we can never know. These Robber Banks know the essence of coming releases, so what we might have here is a jump start on whacking the USD. If so. this could affect other pairs. Interesting.
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  • #76,066
  • Sep 16, 2014 11:20am Sep 16, 2014 11:20am
Quoting traderathome
EURUSD Long Trade Opened: Scout entry. Most of the day has been spent with the MMs forcing the price lower, generally with increasing volume as the price went lower, ahead of the EUR high impact release tomorrow. Even the US open MMs first forced the price lower still before buying it back up, with increasing volume as the price came back up from the lows. And now, in after hours when there is less competition for the liquidity created by manipulating prices, the MMs have forced the price lower again. IMHO they are triggering pending short orders...
EURUSD Long Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 34.0 pips average, 68.0 pips total.
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  • #76,067
  • Sep 16, 2014 11:22am Sep 16, 2014 11:22am
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD Long Trade Opened: Classic entries based on series of bullish PA waves and a current retrace towards previous local support at the 1/4 level, and also based on this current series of bullilsh PA waves being the second act in a show that started with a previous series yesterday, both beginning from below the lower whole number (PVSRA). {image}
AUDUSD Long Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 60.7 pips average, 182.2 pips total.
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  • #76,068
  • Sep 16, 2014 11:25am Sep 16, 2014 11:25am
GBPUSD Long Trade Open & Closed:

Closed for 47.8 pips average, 334.4 pips total. This was a bad trade. Entry was too soon and the move down was unexpected. Well, the sudden move back up was also. Fortunately, it equaled out.
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  • #76,069
  • Sep 16, 2014 11:29am Sep 16, 2014 11:29am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AUDUSD Long Trade Closed: Closed for gain of 60.7 pips average, 182.2 pips total. {image}
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ion-stealth-qe
given how CNY stimulus, directly affected AUD now, I am very very close to taking a loss on my aud/usd short trade...

TAH, if permits, could you elaborate more on this pair? your thoughts on how it will react when the asian sessions starts tomorrow, and if the MM is bear.
Sighted in xxx/aud, aud/xxx confirms fresh strength in AUD...


shrugs.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #76,070
  • Edited 12:04pm Sep 16, 2014 11:40am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ion-stealth-qe given how CNY stimulus, directly affected AUD now, I am very very close to taking a loss on my aud/usd short trade... TAH, if permits, could you elaborate more on this pair? your thoughts on how it will react when the asian sessions starts tomorrow, and if the MM is bear. Sighted in xxx/aud, aud/xxx confirms fresh strength in AUD... shrugs.
Market Comment: Sudden Increased Volatility, and Perhaps Retraces and More to Come

RelaxRay,

Not I, nor anyone else except the Robber Bank MMs, know how price will move next. Chart analysis is an okay thing to do, just so long as you do not allow yourself to take your own - or anyone else's - chart analysis seriously. Because we cannot know how the MMs will move price, having a bias could keep us from trading a perfectly good setup.

Some interesting volatility just occurred in the market. As the MMs whip or whack price under such circumstances it is all too easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. And the apparent momentum of it all can suck traders in,.......on the wrong side!

I do not know what is going to happen in the future, as always, but this sudden and unexpected volatility brought profit and so I have closed some trades and am waiting for the dust to settle. What happens in the upcoming Asian session might give us some new clues.

For now, I can only speculate that what just occurred was a first "USD weakness" move (see USDJPY example attached below), and that there is more of this to come this week. I'd expect retraces of such moves, as the MMs reload for more movement, and some are already apparent.

-tah
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  • #76,071
  • Sep 16, 2014 11:59am Sep 16, 2014 11:59am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Market Comment: Sudden High Volatility RelaxRay, Not I, nor anyone else except the Robber Bank MMs, know how price will move next. Chart analysis is an okay thing to do, just so long as you do not allow yourself to take your own - or anyone else's - chart analysis seriously. Because we cannot know how the MMs will move price, having a bias could keep us from trading a perfectly good setup. Some interesting volatility just occurred in the market. As the MMs whip or whack price under such circumstances it is all too easy to lose sight of the...
TAH,

Noted, thanks for the reminder.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #76,072
  • Sep 16, 2014 12:13pm Sep 16, 2014 12:13pm
EURUSD Long Trade Opened:

Classic, based on the series of bullish waves as PA works it's way up thru the Trend, and a current retrace.
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  • #76,073
  • Edited 1:03pm Sep 16, 2014 12:43pm | Edited 1:03pm
USDCAD Long Trade Opened:

Scout entries on this one, based on the MMs having given it a substantial whacking on increasing volume all the way down, and the sudden stop in the 3/4 level area, which is about mid-level of the previous consolidation (building) area. The Asian session might give more clues. Those MMs might whack it further. There is no way to know. But we have confluence of several key levels where the MMs halted the drop, so there are reasonable odds this is a good entry, and if it goes lower, that too might be another good entry.

Why go long if the precipitous move was a "USD weakening" move that might be followed by more of the same? Simple. I am looking for a retrace move, one the MMs achieve by price manipulation to suck in longs and stop out shorts so they can proceed to add more shorts ahead of future moves down.

My target is the 1/4 level above the upper whole number. This is between a FR 50% and 62% retrace of the move down today. If this long trade closes up there, I will immediately be assessing for the start of a short trade in the same area.
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  • #76,074
  • Sep 16, 2014 2:04pm Sep 16, 2014 2:04pm
USDCAD open and closed
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  • #76,075
  • Sep 16, 2014 3:56pm Sep 16, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} I assume the MM is bear. With last onslaught, i do believe, liquidity will be thinned, so MM begin building their short gradually. They probably knew what the gbp news result, but i doubt they knew about scotland result. Retest of 170 area, they would. Am i get it right? Scout entry, will cut if bounce into 175.500 {image}
I hope you are right because I am also short now... I prefer to short GBPJPY which infers a NO (because GBPJPY is high) than GBPUSD which infers a YES (because it is low). You understood I also bet YES to scottish independence based on UK bookmakers odds, google trends, latest polls..., etc, and also high volume when the GBP drops (relative to when it raises).

By the way, someone knows why (often) some market participants try to decrease or increase the price just before the closing of a H4 candle? It happens also hourly sometimes. Are those FX bots becoming crazy at those particular time? What do you think?

Finally, I noticed that lots of members ask if they got the right volume from their broker at a particular time...you can check here if your broker diverge from the others: http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-broker-volume

Thanks for the reply.
  • #76,076
  • Sep 16, 2014 4:37pm Sep 16, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AUDUSD Long Trade Closed: Closed for gain of 60.7 pips average, 182.2 pips total. {image}
nice EP.
  • #76,077
  • Sep 16, 2014 4:49pm Sep 16, 2014 4:49pm
Hi all.



Great Thread. I have a quick question, I m wondering if the Sonic R. System is coded for an android device.

All comments appreciated.

Thanks

Axel
  • #76,078
  • Sep 16, 2014 5:03pm Sep 16, 2014 5:03pm
Closed longs AUD/USD +8550 points & opened short fo quick pips short
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  • #76,079
  • Sep 16, 2014 6:18pm Sep 16, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting gerardeur
{quote} I hope you are right because I am also short now... I prefer to short GBPJPY which infers a NO (because GBPJPY is high) than GBPUSD which infers a YES (because it is low). You understood I also bet YES to scottish independence based on UK bookmakers odds, google trends, latest polls..., etc, and also high volume when the GBP drops (relative to when it raises). By the way, someone knows why (often) some market participants try to decrease or increase the price just before the closing of a H4 candle? It happens also hourly sometimes. Are...
Q:decrease/increase price just before closing of H4/H1 candle?
A:i didn't notice it, since you ask, i am looking into it (using an excel file, and M5 tf data, spot delta during 5minutes before/after candle close), will took a few days.
Q:volume diverge from broker to broker?
A: yes. I have several brokers (not ethical if i mention them here), and they diverge from one another. But not in such a degree making sonic system PVSRA useless. Thanks god.
About, GBPJPY trade. Last night, hit my trailing stop. I did try a re-entry of short, but bailed when i saw "green" (confirmation of MMs changing direction/short term).
I did not long it, as i did not have time to screen watching (got to get good sleep).
I am still hold MM bear bias (long term). Just be careful, we DO have bias for opening position, but WE CAN NOT POSSIBLY KNOW FOR SURE where the MM will drive the price into. Holding bias, can prevent us from spotting good trade opportunity, and sometime can make you being in red / lost. Not having bias at all, will keep you in the sideline.
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Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #76,080
  • Sep 16, 2014 7:11pm Sep 16, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting leentjai
Closed longs AUD/USD +8550 points & opened short fo quick pips short {image}
Closed short AUD/USD +34 points
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