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  • #923,781
  • Sep 14, 2014 11:57am Sep 14, 2014 11:57am
Quoting CandleStar
Thanks for answering but ................................................. BUT I never saw a farewell from a member here saying "Guys I made it, I am retiring". @ Nick It is not about winning 100%, it is about winning 51% or better. If you win 51% you can bet the farm or am I wrong?
You are going to hear it very soon at least from one of the members here.

What our respected poster Infinitus mentioned about 49% occurring first is very true and wise. There is a great difference between winning on an average 5.1 trades out of 10 AND 51 trades out of 100. I agree with you only if you can maintain 51% in small population blocks of trades (10 or 20). I also assume that your 51% is based on 1:1 risk:reward, however, if you risk reward is better, a lower striking rate can also generate profit.

Any Casino employee will tell you how long unbroken streaks of Red or Black they have witnessed with odds of 42.11% in American Roulette and odds of 43.24% elsewhere. 30 to 35 Red or Black are not uncommon, and sometimes it goes up to 40 to 45. Now, the argument one will have is that forex is not Roulette and one can have an edge for positive outcome unlike pure gambling. I have no answer for that, because to me, forex is very unpredictable, just like gambling.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #923,782
  • Sep 14, 2014 12:02pm Sep 14, 2014 12:02pm
Judging by the way the price is acting in the afterhours session and comparing it with previously exhibit behavior of this kind for this pair, this puppy wants to go back to .2912 area.
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #923,783
  • Edited 1:06pm Sep 14, 2014 12:12pm | Edited 1:06pm
Quoting CandleStar
Thanks for answering but that is not what I am thinking about. I personally no longer believe in trading with small leverage, what should the benefit be? You do have and edge or you do not, that is what I am thinking. With a small leverage you win small and you lose small, so if you lose small and you do not have an edge you are simply staying longer in this business, that is all (and no edge). With a high leverage you win big and you lose big. If you do not have an edge here the game is over pretty fast. If you have an edge you are rich pretty...
In statistics, on any given normal distribution you have the probability, you know there is a standard deviation and a variance + mean mode and median but what you don't know is the order in which wins and losses will occur, so even if you have a 80-20 win ratio (through your edge) you still don't know the sequence in which hands will play out, i.e whether the 20 losses will occur first and that is the reason why you shouldn't bet the farm on any individual occurrence. That explains why MM is the most important part in trading along with a solid strategy (tested throughout a sustained period of time) .
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #923,784
  • Sep 14, 2014 1:07pm Sep 14, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} especially H4 looks VERY bullish, combine it with that weekly hammer. move to beyond 1.3 is inevitable.
That's very definite talk for a very indefinite market..

I do like the H4 though. Just want some confirmation.

I'd prefer this turn into a bull market.
  • #923,785
  • Sep 14, 2014 1:32pm Sep 14, 2014 1:32pm
Market in EUR/USD will start lower at around 1.2945. I think there is no real direction yet, despite last weeks closing PA. USD/JPY is aiming even higher soon, supporting USD index. IF there is a breakout of range this week it could be either way, but chances are high to see another week in current range imo.
Only thing which should be clear is that there wont be a long term bull development on E/U, fundamental and technical wise. Just corrections, which could ofc go as high as 1.33 in best case scenarios. (not talking about weekly targets here)
  • #923,786
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:16pm Sep 14, 2014 2:16pm
How is the market is closed and I see the chart moving up\down?
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #923,787
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:18pm Sep 14, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting milano
How is the market is closed and I see the chart moving up\down?
it is premarket .. ( some brokers allow to trade but spread is huge )
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #923,788
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:24pm Sep 14, 2014 2:24pm
What if I have a SL setup or TP, is this will close during the pre-market?
Thank you
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #923,789
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:26pm Sep 14, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting milano
What if I have a SL setup or TP, is this will close during the pre-market? Thank you
No. Price will be done when market opens in your platform.
  • #923,790
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:26pm Sep 14, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting milano
How is the market is closed and I see the chart moving up\down?
FX market is a 24/24, 365/365 biz...it never closes, it's just that you as a retailer can't trade during the weekend.
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #923,791
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:27pm Sep 14, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting Imaywin
http://online.wsj.com/articles/bunde...ies-1410622693 Oh my...very positive for EUR.
Friday high about to be tested soon after open.
  • #923,792
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:28pm Sep 14, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting milano
What if I have a SL setup or TP, is this will close during the pre-market? Thank you
if they close your positions then you have to contact your broker and tell them.. they will refund you money
well atleast thats what i did once and i got my 3k euros back
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #923,793
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:31pm Sep 14, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting Imaywin
{quote} Friday high about to be tested soon after open.
already done, price spiked up to 1,2977 from 1,2945 in the last 30 minutes.
  • #923,794
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:32pm Sep 14, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting .vor-
{quote} already done, price spiked up to 1,2977 from 1,2945 in the last 30 minutes.
It is just interbank trading now.
  • #923,795
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:33pm Sep 14, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} especially H4 looks VERY bullish, combine it with that weekly hammer. move to beyond 1.3 is inevitable.
I wouldn't say it looks very bullish, i did have a bullish divergence but the move is very weak especially taking into mind that we just had another 550 pip drop since last consolidation. WHo knows, i could build... i'm not so sure
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #923,796
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:33pm Sep 14, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting eqshack
{quote} if they close your positions then you have to contact your broker and tell them.. they will refund you money well atleast thats what i did once and i got my 3k euros back
I prefer the EUR to go down
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #923,797
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:39pm Sep 14, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} Good point OTOH what an edge should that be that fails 49 times in a row? A little pedantic I think.



It is called: WTF


The most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913,[5] when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more nor less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 red or black. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
  • #923,798
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:40pm Sep 14, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} That's very definite talk for a very indefinite market.. I do like the H4 though. Just want some confirmation. I'd prefer this turn into a bull market.
this is how I see it looking at the chart. Of course, every trade must be based on IF... THEN... algo. so special conditions apply.
As Above, So Below
  • #923,799
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:40pm Sep 14, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} In statistics, on any given normal distribution you have the probability, you know there is a standard deviation and a variance + mean mode and median but what you don't know is the order in which wins and losses will occur, so even if you have a 80-20 win ratio (through your edge) you still don't know the sequence in which hands will play out, i.e whether the 20 losses will occur first and that is the reason why you shouldn't bet the farm on any individual occurrence. That explains why MM is the most important part in trading along with...
Very true.

There is a saying in my back home country "If you are long and wrong, it will empty your pockets, but if you short sell and wrong, will lose your whole vault". This saying has a great logic behind it and if used with right money management techniques puts a trader in very advantageous position. For example, every commodity has a minimum price, no commodity can fall below zero no matter what, but there is no upper limit to how high it could go. If one is long and wrong, can lose only up to the base/minimum price of a commodity, but if one is short and wrong, there is no limit to how much one can lose.

If one is dependent on a method that relies on favorable outcomes, should trade in one direction and try to catch bottoms but never a top.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #923,800
  • Sep 14, 2014 2:42pm Sep 14, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} It is called: WTF The most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913,[5] when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more nor less common than any of the...
sounds very dubious
someone should of looked under the table for a large magnet
but then again the house nearly always wins
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