DislikedThanks for answering but that is not what I am thinking about. I personally no longer believe in trading with small leverage, what should the benefit be? You do have and edge or you do not, that is what I am thinking. With a small leverage you win small and you lose small, so if you lose small and you do not have an edge you are simply staying longer in this business, that is all (and no edge). With a high leverage you win big and you lose big. If you do not have an edge here the game is over pretty fast. If you have an edge you are rich pretty...Ignored
- #923,762
- Sep 14, 2014 4:39am Sep 14, 2014 4:39am
- | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Аdministrator | 1,215 Posts
- #923,764
- Sep 14, 2014 4:59am Sep 14, 2014 4:59am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
{quote}Hmmm, maybe the edge is not to bet the farm, not to hunt the one in a lifetime situation, not to be greedy and cocky, instead backing small bread and be satisfied with small but steady gains (or take the losses small). If it would be so easy to take in double digit gains months after months mankind would only trade, wouldn't they?
f(z)=z2+c
- #923,765
- Sep 14, 2014 5:04am Sep 14, 2014 5:04am
- | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,488 Posts
So please let me define "betting the farm" as this might be a problem.
Trading "big" or "betting the farm" means winning 5-10% p.w. for me.
An edge includes a S/L so a black swan canīt kill you if you really have an edge.
Furthermore I donīt mean win counts against lose counts, I mean %gain at the end of the week/month, and that for about a year.
@Louise
If you win so much trades why donīt you leverage higher? Curious like always
Trading "big" or "betting the farm" means winning 5-10% p.w. for me.
An edge includes a S/L so a black swan canīt kill you if you really have an edge.
Furthermore I donīt mean win counts against lose counts, I mean %gain at the end of the week/month, and that for about a year.
@Louise
If you win so much trades why donīt you leverage higher? Curious like always
- #923,766
- Sep 14, 2014 5:32am Sep 14, 2014 5:32am
So please let me define "betting the farm" as this might be a problem. Trading "big" or "betting the farm" means winning 5-10% p.w. for me. An edge includes a S/L so a black swan canīt kill you if you really have an edge. Furthermore I donīt mean win counts against lose counts, I mean %gain at the end of the week/month, and that for about a year. @Louise If you win so much trades why donīt you leverage higher? Curious like always
- #923,767
- Sep 14, 2014 6:14am Sep 14, 2014 6:14am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
{quote} The weekly signal I was talking about: See the Dracula teeth on the very left side on my lovely 'Diablo indi'? And see the Dracula teeth finished this week?And also note the right teeth is longer, than the left? So spooky!!
{image}
Note: the actual bottom has strong signal, but of course can fail too (hope the facts speak to themselves).
Strong signal can be a 'strong' fail.
(I mean it on weekly time frame, because on daily it's already closed in green)
f(z)=z2+c
- #923,768
- Sep 14, 2014 6:14am Sep 14, 2014 6:14am
- | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,488 Posts
Thanks Louise,
cold in South Africa? Never too late to learn something new every day
Anyway, I am scary like you. For me that means that I do not have an edge, otherwise I should not be scared.
cold in South Africa? Never too late to learn something new every day
Anyway, I am scary like you. For me that means that I do not have an edge, otherwise I should not be scared.
- #923,771
- Sep 14, 2014 8:46am Sep 14, 2014 8:46am
- | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,488 Posts
{quote} All what you say, especially the last red marked sentence shows: gamblers fallacy........ What if, in your 51% scenario, the first 49 tries will fail? Answer this question with your high leverage in mind, please.
OTOH what an edge should that be that fails 49 times in a row?
A little pedantic I think.
- #923,772
- Sep 14, 2014 9:01am Sep 14, 2014 9:01am
- | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Giving earnings to the wife | 1,193 Posts
Just taking a brief look at the charts this weekend, don't think we should expect to much of this minibull, as it's just to slow. I think we are looking at a small correction that could look for a test of the 50% fib on monthly at 1.3017. At the most a test of the yearly pivot at 1.3050 ish before heading down again towards the lower targets. Target wise we have the 61.8% fib on monthly at 1.2787. We also have the major 2013 lows/demandzone down to 1.2745 ish. So turns never happen when expected so maybe a touch in between at 1.2765 ish could be a target, before any bigger retracement.
So this week we should see some bouncing inside a narrow channel.
My long term target is still around 1.1850 area at end of march 2015.
So this week we should see some bouncing inside a narrow channel.
My long term target is still around 1.1850 area at end of march 2015.
I don't even have a cool signature
- #923,774
- Sep 14, 2014 10:04am Sep 14, 2014 10:04am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #923,775
- Sep 14, 2014 10:07am Sep 14, 2014 10:07am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
- #923,777
- Sep 14, 2014 11:16am Sep 14, 2014 11:16am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
- #923,779
- Sep 14, 2014 11:53am Sep 14, 2014 11:53am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
