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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #48,161
  • Sep 14, 2014 8:17am Sep 14, 2014 8:17am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} and if it's dovish? It is Yellen...

And BOJ without the two none of this would be happening.
  • #48,162
  • Sep 14, 2014 9:10am Sep 14, 2014 9:10am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} And BOJ without the two none of this would be happening.
and BOJ...

There are certain clues- but what to make of them?

 

  1. Yellen is usually dovish, but US will hike rates- just depends on when, and that will force her to appear hawkish.
  2. BOJ is on their own program regardless of what Yellen says, because they want to devalue their currency...
  3. Last week, there was obvious buying of UJ at the open of Asian session- this week, obvious selling.
  4. Also this week BOJ Gov Kuroda: For now, I don't think there is any need for additional policy steps


Could it be that Kuroda is satisfied with where the Yen is now?

  • #48,163
  • Sep 14, 2014 9:12am Sep 14, 2014 9:12am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} and if it's dovish? It is Yellen...
Then the US dollar makes a correction and we continue the uptrend a little later. Even if the US slows its ascent, it's still ascending afterall, while Japan continues sinking.

At this point, based on price action, fundamentals, and testimony, it's not really a 50/50 though, and you should size your trades accordingly.
  • #48,164
  • Sep 14, 2014 5:52pm Sep 14, 2014 5:52pm
Seeing how the market is 80+ % long USD does anyone think the trend could reverse solely on a profit taking avalanche and possible overshoot of the so called gurus buy targets? Or is this uptrend that strong? Is it crazy to Imagine that we could see a complete retrace from liquidation of overleveraged longs? My opinion only comments welcome.
  • #48,165
  • Sep 14, 2014 6:40pm Sep 14, 2014 6:40pm
Quoting Gamblor
Seeing how the market is 80+ % long USD does anyone think the trend could reverse solely on a profit taking avalanche and possible overshoot of the so called gurus buy targets? Or is this uptrend that strong? Is it crazy to Imagine that we could see a complete retrace from liquidation of overleveraged longs? My opinion only comments welcome.

I am short big right now. Tons of people will disagree with me and that just makes me more confident in my short.
  • #48,166
  • Sep 14, 2014 6:59pm Sep 14, 2014 6:59pm
Quoting myelbow4
{quote} I am short big right now. Tons of people will disagree with me and that just makes me more confident in my short.
Why? Seem confident that this pair will drop. What is the reasoning? Are you also buying eur/usd?
  • #48,167
  • Sep 14, 2014 7:08pm Sep 14, 2014 7:08pm
you will cry until thursday's fomc...

Quoting myelbow4
{quote} I am short big right now. Tons of people will disagree with me and that just makes me more confident in my short.
  • #48,168
  • Sep 14, 2014 7:22pm Sep 14, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting bluetoss
you will cry until thursday's fomc... {quote}
LOL . What is the reasoning behind his madness
  • #48,169
  • Sep 14, 2014 7:36pm Sep 14, 2014 7:36pm
I wouldnt short until we are below 106.00
  • #48,170
  • Sep 14, 2014 8:06pm Sep 14, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting Gamblor
Seeing how the market is 80+ % long USD does anyone think the trend could reverse solely on a profit taking avalanche and possible overshoot of the so called gurus buy targets? Or is this uptrend that strong? Is it crazy to Imagine that we could see a complete retrace from liquidation of overleveraged longs? My opinion only comments welcome.
Only if the Fed does something crazy unexpected like continue QE or delay rate hikes by 1+ years.
  • #48,171
  • Sep 14, 2014 11:30pm Sep 14, 2014 11:30pm
On weekly red candle .
No emotions, just trade
  • #48,172
  • Sep 15, 2014 12:48am Sep 15, 2014 12:48am
Gidday Fellow Grass Hoppers

Jumping around a bit

Yen bus has a full load

come 107.7+

Does not pay to be to greedy

an caught way up here.

I know its 110 target

But weary of the random retraces
  • #48,173
  • Sep 15, 2014 1:41am Sep 15, 2014 1:41am
I keep trying to press the short button, but somehow the mouse just isn't clicking.......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,174
  • Sep 15, 2014 1:44am Sep 15, 2014 1:44am
Quoting Exodus
I keep trying to press the short button, but somehow the mouse just isn't clicking.......
i went in with small lot ( 1.4lots ) short from 107.346 and would like to see 105.728
too overbought 1day
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #48,175
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:20am Sep 15, 2014 4:20am
analogy correction FED
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #48,176
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:14am Sep 15, 2014 5:14am
Quoting Dano12
analogy correction FED {image} {image}
$ Looks to be bullish to around 110
  • #48,177
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:47am Sep 15, 2014 5:47am
Superb Empire State manufacturing numbers have done nothing.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,178
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:56am Sep 15, 2014 5:56am
Weekly trend line reject. Possible retrace.
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No emotions, just trade
  • #48,179
  • Sep 15, 2014 6:04am Sep 15, 2014 6:04am
Quoting Exodus
Superb Empire State manufacturing numbers have done nothing.....
Looks like the bull is tired and the bear is waiting to play....

Could this be the start of the drop.....

FOMC is holding the key to decide the direction.....a rate hike or continuation of QE.
  • #48,180
  • Sep 15, 2014 6:17am Sep 15, 2014 6:17am
Quoting pohchuan
{quote} Looks like the bull is tired and the bear is waiting to play.... Could this be the start of the drop..... FOMC is holding the key to decide the direction.....a rate hike or continuation of QE.
That is the answer, market was waiting for the industrial production and utilization figures.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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