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EURUSD

  • #923,741
  • Sep 13, 2014 3:22pm Sep 13, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Ok, you are new to forex, as I see. When a bank says 300 pips up, you can bet your house on 300 pips down, always been like that.
Ha! i was trading forex even before you had dippers buddie. but the last thing i will do in forex is read some opinion from a bank like i don't have my own opinion.i tell folks to always trade with the trend ....
  • #923,742
  • Sep 13, 2014 3:25pm Sep 13, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Since 3990 we had 6 weekly closes above the last week's and we had bigger bullish weekly candles, even 2 in a row, which made people think a reversal is happening. You know what happened after each? A big dump of euro. Just trade the trend, whatever it is and it is not bullish, yet, not even close.
what are you saying i hope you are refering to eurousd chart or ?
  • #923,743
  • Sep 13, 2014 3:44pm Sep 13, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting ericnyamu
{quote} Ha! i was trading forex even before you had dippers buddie. but the last thing i will do in forex is read some opinion from a bank like i don't have my own opinion.i tell folks to always trade with the trend ....
What is a dipper?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #923,744
  • Sep 13, 2014 4:11pm Sep 13, 2014 4:11pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Got trapped in this short, Italian data deceived me. It did give me a few pips on hitting tp just above 1.2910, but not worth the risk I took, bad r/r but got lucky. Then some scalping with very little luck. The major loss is losing about a week's long position from 1.2955. Now I am not sure .............. as always. Betting on USD/JPY short for about 1,000 pips. That will require opening and closing several positions from here until whatever high it goes to. Good return even if one trade survives out of 10 or 12. {image}
shorting UJ cost me about 40% of my account (as you can see in my TE). I've sense revised my idea of UJ, and MM. Then again- I'm running the tiniest account I can, and trying to make it survive. The ultimate test if you will.

Im sure you can suffer much more of a draw down than me.
  • #923,745
  • Sep 13, 2014 4:15pm Sep 13, 2014 4:15pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
Got some updates.. Not sure i got all of them. September 03, 06:21 AM – Morgan Stanley adjusted stop from 1.32 to 1.317 on its EUR/USD Short (Short-Term) September 05, 01:42 AM – Danske placed an active limit order to Short EUR/USD at 1.2972, with a target at 1.2788 and a stop at 1.3045 (Short-Term) September 05, 03:47 AM – Credit Suisse placed an active limit order to Short EUR/USD at 1.301, with a target at 1.279 and a stop at 1.307 (Short-Term) September 05, 05:02 AM – Morgan Stanley placed an active limit order to Short EUR/USD at 1.304, with...
According to this we should not see any bullish engulfing next week....otherwise 1.3x is going to rocket ship into the stratosphere
  • #923,746
  • Sep 13, 2014 4:23pm Sep 13, 2014 4:23pm
Im sorry guys but JP Morgan is right here, exchange rate is quite correlated to 2yr bonds spread. So 1.3300 is fair value and we are already in negative territory for most of eurozone countries leaving not much room for downside. Especially when we consider that imported inflation because of euro selloff (from China and USA) will affect September CPI number.
  • #923,747
  • Sep 13, 2014 4:32pm Sep 13, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} back.. no ship yet, i didnt have a chance to look. i will be on the water late friday and probably through sunday eve.. i need to get some fishing in. i will be near Venice.
Need the boat.

Hate to say it, but want someone that's down. If they're drowning... We may have a deal. I ain't paying fancy-boat material!
  • #923,748
  • Sep 13, 2014 9:34pm Sep 13, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} shorting UJ cost me about 40% of my account (as you can see in my TE). I've sense revised my idea of UJ, and MM. Then again- I'm running the tiniest account I can, and trying to make it survive. The ultimate test if you will. Im sure you can suffer much more of a draw down than me.
UJ is a difficult pair ............ just like any other. I successfully traded UJ for many years but my method for this pair failed in 2008. This is when I started trading euro. Over these years, I consistently tried to develop more effective trading tools. I never traded with big money, but now planning for it at the strength of these tools. This trade is going to be last test of the my method. I will be very happy if this trade gives me a huge draw down, because this will be sensitivity analysis of my method.

If you like, I can do an analysis of trades on your TE and provide a feedback.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #923,749
  • Sep 13, 2014 10:06pm Sep 13, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} UJ is a difficult pair ............ just like any other. I successfully traded UJ for many years but my method for this pair failed in 2008. This is when I started trading euro. Over these years, I consistently tried to develop more effective trading tools. I never traded with big money, but now planning for it at the strength of these tools. This trade is going to be last test of the my method. I will be very happy if this trade gives me a huge draw down, because this will be sensitivity analysis of my method. If you[/highlight]...
EU has been my weakness from day one...so I've been paying attention more.

I appreciate the offer, but over the last year my TE has been a combination of a wide range of indicators, price action only, harmonics only, S/R only, fibs only, hammer candles only, hourly, 4 hour....whatever you can think of I've traded it just to get the feel and to see what works. In other words, there hasn't really been a consistent strategy in which I'd like analysed- other than surviving (which I have). What's interesting to note, is I've actually had a difficult time blowing the account...once I drain it, I implement stricter MM...and viola, mo money. Most recently I boosted it with a couple deposits specifically for some off-the-wall wacky trades I wanted to try out....went about like I figured it would. Haha. Once I figure out what I'm most comfortable with, and good at- we can talk again.

At the moment I've figured out two solid things- MM on a small account is vital (duh, already know that), indicators are shit, and good ol' price action trading at S/R zones seems to be my strong suit. After another year, should be about where you are, and feel comfortable depositing 5, then 10k or so...not big money to most people, but pretty big in my eyes.

Shout-out to G for my most recent style of MM. I like this only risking 1/2 a percent stuff..3 losses yesterday (all where winners at one point of course, but I held expecting the "big drop") and only lost about 1/2-2/3 a % each.
  • #923,750
  • Sep 13, 2014 10:23pm Sep 13, 2014 10:23pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} Not sure what you have seen Andy, on Alpari it was a jump up to 1.2963 in the last seconds.
This is what I meant:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Afterhours.png Size: 34 KB
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #923,751
  • Sep 13, 2014 10:26pm Sep 13, 2014 10:26pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} What is a dipper?

Ohh nooooo Chicky!!! At least I hope you are not a double dipper...I hate that kind of people
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #923,752
  • Sep 13, 2014 11:32pm Sep 13, 2014 11:32pm
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} Ohh nooooo Chicky!!! At least I hope you are not a double dipper...I hate that kind of people
I do double dip, also triple, quadruple, and one more ................................... but I use my own exclusive sauce bowls.

http://www.ginnyhopkins.com/wp-conte.../SFAM-7339.jpg
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #923,753
  • Sep 14, 2014 1:03am Sep 14, 2014 1:03am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I do double dip, also triple, quadruple, and one more ................................... but I use my own exclusive sauce bowls. {image}
good to finally meet you



and your 5 wives. that's hot.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #923,754
  • Sep 14, 2014 1:27am Sep 14, 2014 1:27am
So i read couple posts and i would say yeah, i agree EU is positioned for a possible rebound.

until,

This morning, we just had about 220 Russian trucks drove in Ukraine unauthorized by the NATO nor oversight by the Red Cross.

I guess that throws all the peach (peace) talk we had lately all out that freaking window, yeah?

Man now let's get back to this rebound we had here... i stay away from the bulls till i find out why we need 200 more unauthorized trucks in Ukraine for.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #923,755
  • Sep 14, 2014 3:20am Sep 14, 2014 3:20am
Today is Sunday and I have some time to think about this and that.
My idea: We are all losers!
Would it be different and someone had a real working system he/she would bet the farm on it and would be rich in a year.
I did not see that in four years.
So my conclusion is no one has a real edge that works long enough.
  • #923,756
  • Sep 14, 2014 3:41am Sep 14, 2014 3:41am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Are they shorting or closing their long positions? Is this complete information? How do we know they don't have any long trades for amounts 100 times bigger than their shorts?
Well, there is actually TPs and SL on these orders, so i guess it's pure short orders. Many of these prior "bank" orders has reached TP, some are still in play and some have now placed new shorts. Those shorts from far above have moved SL way down to 1.3100-1.3200 levels, And by the looks of it, they are looking for this to hit 1.3020-1.340 and then return down, above 1.3100-1.3200 would take out a lot of stops.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #923,757
  • Sep 14, 2014 3:54am Sep 14, 2014 3:54am
Quoting CandleStar
Today is Sunday and I have some time to think about this and that. My idea: We are all losers! Would it be different and someone had a real working system he/she would bet the farm on it and would be rich in a year. I did not see that in four years. So my conclusion is no one has a real edge that works long enough.
No one has a edge.... absolutely no one!!! and not even banks, they fight each other. And never forget retails marketshare of the forexindustri is growing, last i read it had grown to some 15%. But the beauty with forex is that not all transactions are done for profit or investment. A large portion is actually hedging from business or investors investing in other products.

But trading is not easy, and we all lose from time to time, i have yet to see a trader produce 100% winning trades. We just have to win more than we lose.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #923,758
  • Sep 14, 2014 4:03am Sep 14, 2014 4:03am
Quoting CandleStar
Today is Sunday and I have some time to think about this and that. My idea: We are all losers! Would it be different and someone had a real working system he/she would bet the farm on it and would be rich in a year. I did not see that in four years. So my conclusion is no one has a real edge that works long enough.



Hmmm, maybe the edge is not to bet the farm, not to hunt the one in a lifetime situation, not to be greedy and cocky, instead backing small bread and be satisfied with small but steady gains (or take the losses small).

If it would be so easy to take in double digit gains months after months mankind would only trade, wouldn't they?
  • #923,759
  • Sep 14, 2014 4:14am Sep 14, 2014 4:14am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hmmm, maybe the edge is not to bet the farm, not to hunt the one in a lifetime situation, not to be greedy and cocky, instead backing small bread and be satisfied with small but steady gains (or take the losses small). If it would be so easy to take in double digit gains months after months mankind would only trade, wouldn't they?
You have said it all. Nothing is easy money and work you way UP with steady and secure trading.
  • #923,760
  • Sep 14, 2014 4:22am Sep 14, 2014 4:22am
Thanks for answering but that is not what I am thinking about.
I personally no longer believe in trading with small leverage, what should the benefit be?

You do have and edge or you do not, that is what I am thinking.
With a small leverage you win small and you lose small, so if you lose small and you do not have an edge you are simply staying longer in this business, that is all (and no edge).
With a high leverage you win big and you lose big. If you do not have an edge here the game is over pretty fast. If you have an edge you are rich pretty fast.

BUT I never saw a farewell from a member here saying "Guys I made it, I am retiring".

@ Nick
It is not about winning 100%, it is about winning 51% or better. If you win 51% you can bet the farm or am I wrong?
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