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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #48,141
  • Sep 12, 2014 11:37am Sep 12, 2014 11:37am
i like to add on that the doijis on the 4H chart are indecisiveness but i follow the trend, it's still trending up, i choose not to fight the trend. until there is more concrete data that japan is really on their way to moderate recovery, i will relent...

Quoting Janut
Usd index is strong. Nikkei is not dropping since japan companies are in profit.could be a bull trap. some doji cadles on h4. Market do not ready to take decision. indicators are screaming for retrace... could be double top reversal mode. Will the basis support resist?
  • #48,142
  • Sep 12, 2014 12:29pm Sep 12, 2014 12:29pm
Huh. I sold my positions and made a profit, but now I'm left wondering-why is the USD/JPY declining so much when we'e had 3 consecutive high value events in favor of the US dollar? I'd understand if the currency pair shot past 170.4 and then came down, but to continuously decrease like this despite EXTREMELY favorable short term long positions for the dollars....it doesn't add up.


Any ideas, people?
  • #48,143
  • Sep 12, 2014 12:33pm Sep 12, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting Vermillion
Huh. I sold my positions and made a profit, but now I'm left wondering-why is the USD/JPY declining so much when we'e had 3 consecutive high value events in favor of the US dollar? I'd understand if the currency pair shot past 170.4 and then came down, but to continuously decrease like this despite EXTREMELY favorable short term long positions for the dollars....it doesn't add up. Any ideas, people?
Look at the daily chart. 12 consecutive candles making new highs...

I have never seen this before in my life. 10 yes, 11 or 12? heck no.

The next clue is volume. Check out the weekly volumes for the past couple weeks and get a sense of the context on the monthly chart.


Some quotes from Howard Mark:

"• Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical.
• Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one.
There are a few things of which we can be sure, and this is one: Extreme market behavior will reverse. Those who believe that the pendulum will move in one direction forever—or reside at an extreme forever— eventually will lose huge sums. Those who understand the pendulum’s behavior can benefit enormously."

"The absolute best buying opportunities come when asset holders are forced to sell, and in those crises they were present in large numbers.
Usually, would-be sellers balance the desire to get a good price with the desire to get the trade done soon. The beauty of forced sellers is that they have no choice. They have a gun at their heads and have to sell regardless of price. Those last three words—regardless of price—are the most beautiful in the world if you’re on the other side of the transaction."

"Market extremes represent inflection points. These occur when bullishness or bearishness reaches a maximum. Figuratively speaking, a top occurs when the last person who will become a buyer does so. Since every buyer has joined the bullish herd by the time the top is reached, bullishness can go no further and the market is as high as it can go. Buying or holding is dangerous."

Good luck.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #48,144
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:15pm Sep 12, 2014 1:15pm
Then I wonder....should I close off all remaining positions by end of Friday, or should I consider holding onto them until sunday afternoon? My guess based on the current trend is that we'll still probably hit 108 before any significant reversals (due to the VERY SUCCESSFUL reports about the USD today). A new bullish climb has long been coming (been delayed by artificial declines caused by sellers closing shop and a general nervousness about the yen losing so much ground)

But at the same time, I am extremely reticent to risk my profit margin on weekend days, especially considering that I have no control over what happens during the weekends (and can't cancel them either).

So.....should I wait? I stand to gain a few thousand dollars if this goes through, but if the market decides to start on say, 170.1, and decides to go below 170, I........am not going to be very happy, to say the least. At the worst case, I may even wipe my account.
  • #48,145
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:19pm Sep 12, 2014 1:19pm
based on the EU actions of today- i wouldnt hold anything over the weekend.
  • #48,146
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:42pm Sep 12, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Look at the daily chart. 12 consecutive candles making new highs... I have never seen this before in my life. 10 yes, 11 or 12? heck no. The next clue is volume. Check out the weekly volumes for the past couple weeks and get a sense of the context on the monthly chart. Some quotes from Howard Mark: "• Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical. • Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one. There are a few things of which we can be sure, and this is one:...
Seems you are right . Tnx for sharing .
People wont learn to post analysis in forums not "I think its down/up!"
  • #48,147
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:49pm Sep 12, 2014 1:49pm
Oh well. I suppose I'll simply stay glued to my screen for the next few hours until the market closes. .....least I earned money instead of losing it by intra-trading on this wild day.

Still, does anyone think the USD/JPY will breach the 107.4 mark?
  • #48,148
  • Sep 12, 2014 2:33pm Sep 12, 2014 2:33pm
I could see it touching it before 5 pm today, or just trapping people who hope it does.


It is so close, yet still quite far.

Many people probably do not want to take on the risk of holding over the weekend. On Sunday/Monday it will probably break above 107.40 once everyone comes back for the week.
  • #48,149
  • Sep 12, 2014 3:47pm Sep 12, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting Pharm0r
based on the EU actions of today- i wouldnt hold anything over the weekend.
what EU actions ?
  • #48,150
  • Sep 12, 2014 5:18pm Sep 12, 2014 5:18pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} what EU actions ?
Sorry I'm late to answer this.

look at your M5-H1 chart. Fighting for 2950 all day, and bulls won it, as well as the engulfing daily and hammer weekly. That could mean a gap down for UJ / gap up for EU. UJ also failed to take .37
  • #48,151
  • Edited 10:14am Sep 13, 2014 10:03am | Edited 10:14am
My simple trade setups for next week. 106.83 area, and 106.00 area for longs. Normally I'd say 106 is out of the question, but EU is setting up for a potential reversal, that may drag this pair down.

At this point I wont be bearish on this pair until the weekly breaks 101. Only long trades until then for me.

IF WE GO BELOW 106 (which is unlikely), I won't trade this pair again until clear direction.

Overall easy setups/trading for UJ.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #48,152
  • Sep 13, 2014 10:52am Sep 13, 2014 10:52am
Gidday Yen Masters

I got longs stacked up to 106 to 107.2 108 + TP

YEN Bus loaded up

Was thinking if we see 107.7 etc

I will try an close the bigger trades

an hold the smaller ones,an get back in 106 area.

Steel balls required if we do retrace below 106

Hard case,being in sales I drive around heaps.

At the lights waiting,phone beeps that some trades hit profit.

The greedy bastard with sausage fingers

enters USD/JPY trade 21 times bigger then normal.

Next set of lights, check phone

F????k

Lucky it spiked up,an I managed to close out with minor loss
  • #48,153
  • Sep 13, 2014 11:37am Sep 13, 2014 11:37am
FOMC rate decision is being priced in. Clear divergence in US versus Japanese monetary policy regarding QE. Even if we don't get a rate hike from the Fed this week, as long as they remain hawkish, this pair is going to 110+.
  • #48,154
  • Sep 13, 2014 11:40am Sep 13, 2014 11:40am
Quoting DonaldPump
FOMC rate decision is being priced in. Clear divergence in US versus Japanese monetary policy regarding QE. Even if we don't get a rate hike from the Fed this week, as long as they remain hawkish, this pair is going to 110+.

What a cool analysis
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  • #48,155
  • Sep 13, 2014 4:04pm Sep 13, 2014 4:04pm
I never understood how people claim to know whether or not something is being priced in. Almost like they can tell the future or something.
  • #48,156
  • Sep 13, 2014 6:52pm Sep 13, 2014 6:52pm
I'm staying long. Winners add to winning trades

I do agree something will happen soon. Last 2 days have decent wicks suggesting indecision and I noticed it tends to drop during Asian session and gain again during US session. Something to watch for. From my own noob technical opinion it is looking a little too parabolic and is due to consolidate a little, retrace for a week or so, or reverse. Judging by fundamentals (again a noob here) I am keeping in mind the market is overall positive for US and neutral or negative for Japan.

I expect this to go sideways at the beginning of the week unless something new happens in those 1st few days and then up with the US news outputs due.

Either way, I am moving my stop up to a new 2 candle low as yesterday was a new high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Winners add to winning trades!
  • #48,157
  • Sep 13, 2014 10:13pm Sep 13, 2014 10:13pm
Quoting marshalmax
I'm staying long. Winners add to winning trades I do agree something will happen soon. Last 2 days have decent wicks suggesting indecision and I noticed it tends to drop during Asian session and gain again during US session. Something to watch for. From my own noob technical opinion it is looking a little too parabolic and is due to consolidate a little, retrace for a week or so, or reverse. Judging by fundamentals (again a noob here) I am keeping in mind the market is overall positive for US and neutral or negative...
I too have noticed this- completely opposite of a week ago...
  • #48,158
  • Sep 13, 2014 11:21pm Sep 13, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I never understood how people claim to know whether or not something is being priced in. Almost like they can tell the future or something.
It's pretty simple speculation given what the banks have been saying. Yellen recently said rate hikes may come sooner rather than later, while GDP, unemployment, and inflation data have been hitting targets. Meanwhile, Japan is buying T-bills at negative rates, shifting pension funds to foreign commodities and talking about further easing. August/Sept has also seen a significant upswing in volatility across all markets. So given that, it's not much of a stretch to imagine this week's FOMC statement will continue to be hawkish. Traders are simply buying ahead of time to get in on this high probability scenario.
  • #48,159
  • Sep 14, 2014 10:00am Sep 14, 2014 10:00am
Quoting DonaldPump
{quote} It's pretty simple speculation given what the banks have been saying. Yellen recently said rate hikes may come sooner rather than later, while GDP, unemployment, and inflation data have been hitting targets. Meanwhile, Japan is buying T-bills at negative rates, shifting pension funds to foreign commodities and talking about further easing. August/Sept has also seen a significant upswing in volatility across all markets. So given that, it's not much of a stretch to imagine this week's FOMC statement will continue to be hawkish. Traders are...
and if it's dovish? It is Yellen...
  • #48,160
  • Sep 14, 2014 10:09am Sep 14, 2014 10:09am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} and if it's dovish? It is Yellen...
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