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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #48,121
  • Sep 11, 2014 8:45pm Sep 11, 2014 8:45pm
Another base at 107.25 being formed now.
  • #48,122
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:37pm Sep 11, 2014 9:37pm
83 is a good place to long again.
  • #48,123
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:49pm Sep 11, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting stylinex
I think you are right. In order for Japanese manufacturers to be able to make a profit and sustain any growth the YEN needs to drop further to around 110. They need currency at 110 to boost exports and tourism and I believe that they will get it. Next currency to drop after a YEN will be the Chinese Currency CNY
In my option Jap has little to do with the rally. The rally is mainly from the dollar and FOMC approach. Yen is just taking a free ride.
Quoting bluetoss
this pair is rocket...
It seemed like UJ is committed above 107.00 before this week ends.
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  • #48,124
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:37am Sep 12, 2014 1:37am
So what's the plan if we go to 106.0 today?
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  • #48,125
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:38am Sep 12, 2014 1:38am
Quoting Dano12
{image}
I drew the same (similar) trendline. Price just bounced off that line @ 107.40
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  • #48,126
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:41am Sep 12, 2014 1:41am
Quoting shellsnail
So what's the plan if we go to 106.0 today?
we will buy
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #48,127
  • Edited 7:05am Sep 12, 2014 3:25am | Edited 7:05am
Hi
USDJPY Weekly
USD is probably going to depreciate in a week. the last time that the price touch the trendline, a negative divergence occurred and JPy appreciated.
history is going to be repeated. providing that USD depreciates, it will touch the bottom side of the triangle.


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  • #48,128
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:25am Sep 12, 2014 6:25am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} we will buy
God-damn right we will.
  • #48,129
  • Sep 12, 2014 8:30am Sep 12, 2014 8:30am
I am waiting for a close above 107.40. That could be soon and should start the next lift.
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  • #48,130
  • Sep 12, 2014 8:45am Sep 12, 2014 8:45am
Quoting itsyesman
Hi USDJPY Weekly USD is probably going to depreciate in a week. the last time that the price touch the trendline, a negative divergence occurred and JPy appreciated. history is going to be repeated. providing that USD depreciates, it will touch the bottom side of the triangle. {image}
Thats about, thanks.

I never get why the people here are so...
No wonder that more than 80 % of the traders loose on long term, reading the stuff here..

Wanted to write the same, but did not had the muse and did not wanted to disturb the up to 120.00 in a row wishful thinking.

Posts without substance and based on ??

Dicing ? Or because it climbed for a month now, it must continue to climb ?!?

First post after a long time (what wonder, with a great chart !!) that is worth to read it. Thanks!

ps. you got my subscription.
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #48,131
  • Sep 12, 2014 9:03am Sep 12, 2014 9:03am
I refuse to speculate in the coming weeks, but as an intraday trader, I can safely say that we're in for decent profit. The 3 key factors of the USD-core retail m/m, core retail, and preliminary consumer sentiments are all performing above expectations. Given the upward trend of the ninja (even though it's been slowing down), those who speculated around the 170.185 should make a nice tidy profit likely in the hundreds of dollars.

As for me, in addition to my previous purchase at 170.1 mark I recently bought an additional 40,000 at 107.280 for kicks and giggles (we're likely to go through 107.400), so I guess I can eat out tonight.

My question is, however, is three fold: how long will it take for the market to move after the intraday shorts close shop, how far beyond 107.410 will it go, and whether we have this trend last at least for the first half of next week.
  • #48,132
  • Sep 12, 2014 9:09am Sep 12, 2014 9:09am
Feels like it's time for the bulls to start taking some profits. This kind of unrelentless rally with no pullback, especially after 9 months of ranging, requires a healthy correction in order to survive the long term.
  • #48,133
  • Sep 12, 2014 9:12am Sep 12, 2014 9:12am
Quoting DonaldPump
Feels like it's time for the bulls to start taking some profits. This kind of unrelentless rally with no pullback, especially after 9 months of ranging, requires a healthy correction in order to survive the long term.
worthless ....how would you describe November- March....
trade what you see
  • #48,134
  • Sep 12, 2014 9:21am Sep 12, 2014 9:21am
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} worthless ....how would you describe November- March.... trade what you see
Let me guess, you are long ??

"how would you describe November- March"

Chart ? with your opinion ?
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #48,135
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:03am Sep 12, 2014 10:03am
I want to see if the down trend holds I am shorting it round 107.35-45
  • #48,136
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:07am Sep 12, 2014 10:07am
Quoting DonaldPump
Feels like it's time for the bulls to start taking some profits. This kind of unrelentless rally with no pullback, especially after 9 months of ranging, requires a healthy correction in order to survive the long term.
Soo i guess you're still waiting on that pullback from sept 2012 then?
  • #48,137
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:15am Sep 12, 2014 10:15am
Quoting Toranaga
{quote} Let me guess, you are long ?? "how would you describe November- March" Chart ? with your opinion ?
My opinion are worthless as well
  • #48,138
  • Edited 10:38am Sep 12, 2014 10:25am | Edited 10:38am
Seeing as how I rarely hold currencies for more than a few days or a week, I won't claim to understand the long term debate. But What I don't understand is people letting this great short-term opportunity to slip by; had you purchased around 5-10 minutes after the retail updates, you could have profited from the artificial decline in prices caused by intraday USD/JPY sellers dumping their shorts (short term longs estimated to profit you somewhere between 100-200 free pips).

Am I the only one trading on a minute by minute, hour-by-hour basis? Why is everyone focusing on the issue of future correction, when we know it will happen anyway? We also can't in good faith predict any absolute concrete support/resistance (events>graphs), so the path to going long term right now is too opaque and controversial (hence this debate). We won't get anything done with that, so why not take advantage of this event, and discuss more about the short term?


....or perhaps is it because it's too obvious that no one is talking about it?
  • #48,139
  • Sep 12, 2014 11:24am Sep 12, 2014 11:24am
Quoting Vermillion
Seeing as how I rarely hold currencies for more than a few days or a week, I won't claim to understand the long term debate. But What I don't understand is people letting this great short-term opportunity to slip by; had you purchased around 5-10 minutes after the retail updates, you could have profited from the artificial decline in prices caused by intraday USD/JPY sellers dumping their shorts (short term longs estimated to profit you somewhere between 100-200 free pips). Am I the only one trading on a minute by minute, hour-by-hour basis? Why...
I trade by the minute around news, but only when I can 'feel' the market.
After today's numbers the market behaviour did not make sense to me, so I just watched (and then got in long at a convenient low )
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  • #48,140
  • Sep 12, 2014 11:24am Sep 12, 2014 11:24am
Usd index is strong. Nikkei is not dropping since japan companies are in profit.could be a bull trap.

some doji cadles on h4. Market do not ready to take decision.

indicators are screaming for retrace...

could be double top reversal mode. Will the basis support resist?
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