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  • #922,341
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:12am Sep 9, 2014 4:12am
[quote=3Davy;7725950]{quote} How you can predict the trend on short term?[/quote

You can't, but you can increase probability by watching price action.

As far entering a long trade other than a scalp. I would be very careful of stepping in front of this massive trend until we see a HH on the Midrange time frame (H1 to H4)
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  • #922,342
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:13am Sep 9, 2014 4:13am
Ok I got stopped...switched to cable. Still I think this more than 2 months drop should get a big big strike back but dunno from where. May be 1.28 ? 1.275? Anyway I won't be in.
  • #922,343
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:14am Sep 9, 2014 4:14am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Thanks
I was on Sydney open for ages, just this week trying frankfurt, may see what London looks like too
  • #922,344
  • Edited 4:53am Sep 9, 2014 4:14am | Edited 4:53am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} How you can predict the trend on short term?
First of all i have a counter question: How can you predict the trend on long term? Its pretty much the same thing.
How? Well ive been working with probability theory for 26 years, maybe that is an answer?
How can you predict what your mom will be nagging about next time she calls? There are patterns in everything, human behaviour, how air moves, how water moves, how we think and on what, what we dont think on even though it seems we should. I study patterns and i have for a long time. University math is kindergarden bullshit. The crap they teach you in high school is detached, uninspired and you get a teacher who just repeat the formulas from a sheet of paper without being able to or having any will to explain and understand why or how that works.

I dont predict the trend. The strength/longevity of a move IS the trend. The more its been moving one way, the stronger is the trend, the more it takes to turn it around. I think its foolish to try to "predict" the trend. Of course that depends on the defenition of "trend" and i havent given any so this probably means little, but maybe enough still for people who are turned on

If all you want to do with your life is be rich, drink, fuck and sleep, then you wont get any of this anyway. Thats my experience and scientific/philosphical/occult/magical/religious/mystic/shamanic/ understanding.

EDIT: When i close on 1/10 of profit as compared to the drawdown im in, i get happy. Every profit is good. Dont neglect profit, even though its only 0.13% of the total account in one closed trade. A few of those a day and im all done.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #922,345
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:26am Sep 9, 2014 4:26am
Yeah

Making money on charts in not easy.
It Always does something differnet otherwise it would be easy.
But sometimes when i just looking it en do nothing.Then I think,damm I should do it.
Maybe less thinking and just do it.
  • #922,346
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:29am Sep 9, 2014 4:29am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} I was on Sydney open for ages, just this week trying frankfurt, may see what London looks like too
life can seem strange if one has no memory, as in May eu was going to the moon, unstoppable, but some were trying to sell and having rocks thrown at them, now shes entered possible support zone and the reverse is happening,

aside for you my friend and a few others , when pa reverses or in the process of reversing (argh you dont trade against the "trend") , then clear signs she has reversed (argh its just accumulation ready for the next push) then the train is well under way, we get (arrgh shit its reversing) train enters a station / support the process repeats, a bit like johnny come lately
not saying this girl is reversing the present "trend" just saying the trend rave is like a scratched record, most people who get sucked into "trend trading" generally get their ass handed to them in a sling
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  • #922,347
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:32am Sep 9, 2014 4:32am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} sure everything is relative but the change in fundamentals was the clearest trend change I have seen in many years, some still do not believe it is happening, some keep trying to scalp long during an impulsive phase, and some will still tell you 1.40 is due very soon, but I accept your point
I hear you, those are constants in this business, you just have to stay above the fray. I like to scalp in either direction depending on my setups on the smaller TFs counter trend is very rough business but sometimes, its worth the pip or 2 to keep the day interesting.
My short positions from last week on the EU were trailed out and i preferred to trade the EG, had a long from before at .7964 that trailed out for good pips and a short i had taken at .8005 that got trailed out, on the news as well for a few more pips. (had this one held from yesterday
My bias would be upside on the EG but i cant seem to get what i consider a good entry, plus there is that speech in about an hour that might create another dip. (so i could short again for some pips depending on this dance around 8000 for 10-20 pips as i look for opportunities to load some long positions on the H4.
But then again its all just a bunch of talk for the next hour, i learnt a long time ago not to make demands on the market.
Guard your pips jelously
  • #922,348
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:48am Sep 9, 2014 4:48am
Quoting KiwiTrada
gbp data in 10 min looking for sword in the skull defending 6062 entry 6072 sl 6059, will know soon enough if green pip or very very big headache
nice entry. Holding through Carney?
Guard your pips jelously
  • #922,349
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:48am Sep 9, 2014 4:48am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} life can seem strange if one has no memory, as in May eu was going to the moon, unstoppable, but some were trying to sell and having rocks thrown at them, now shes entered possible support zone and the reverse is happening, aside for you my friend and a few others , when pa reverses or in the process of reversing (argh you dont trade against the "trend") , .....
Quoting hadox
{quote} lol, easy if you were a bear from the top and a breakout trader.. higher timeframes provided tiny pullbacks which were difficult to catch, but hey, easy for some - difficult for others..
You are right of course KT and I also trade counter-trend often, but I try very hard not to during a landslide.... after all my initial entries at 397x were counter trend and I even tried two longs when it looked like this was making a bigger pullback (1 failed 1 succeeded) hadox correctly pointed out that during this landslide the pullbacks have been small for short entries on HTF.. for me that alone should be a big warning to the counter-trend traders to stand aside, but one man's short is another's long and I thank them for my entries and I bang my head repeatedly on the wall every morning to remind myself to pay careful attention and recalculate the potential low points ready for the swing which will certainly come...

Quoting TzarPips
{quote} I hear you, those are constants in this business, you just have to stay above the fray.....i learnt a long time ago not to make demands on the market.
this is a good comment people should understand.....
  • #922,350
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:49am Sep 9, 2014 4:49am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} My father was known as King of Gambling, Satta King, Akbar the King, Akbar the Great, etc. (You may like to google for the details), but he was a bookmaker and not a scalper, so am I.
I Googled and found this...
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  • #922,351
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:00am Sep 9, 2014 5:00am
Quoting 3Davy
Yeah Making money on charts in not easy. It Always does something differnet otherwise it would be easy. But sometimes when i just looking it en do nothing.Then I think,damm I should do it. Maybe less thinking and just do it.
Well a couple of years ago, if i wasnt trading on my real account i switched to a demo account and traded that like a maniac. I think there really are no "golden opurtunities", just varying probabilities, if you dont have inside info that is, and i dont.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #922,352
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:02am Sep 9, 2014 5:02am
Quoting AsadKiani
{quote} I Googled and found this... {image}
Yeah so lets say he had a Chicky at age 30, thats in 1572. (2014) - (1572) = 442 years. Which means Chicky is something like 442 years old. HAH! Im older!
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #922,353
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:05am Sep 9, 2014 5:05am
Good morning all.
There seems to have been some discussion recently on the merits of counter-trend entries. Although I'm sure that there is money to be earned from longs on EUR-USD, without meeting my normal pre-requisites they would be inherently risky and would need to be constantly monitored. Right now, we seem to be in consolidation mode and as I am only looking for shorts, I think it's unlikely that I will be entering until the price breaks out and falls convincingly to below 1.2875
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  • #922,354
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:10am Sep 9, 2014 5:10am
Bulls are coming out of holes
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No emotions, just trade
  • #922,355
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:13am Sep 9, 2014 5:13am
Quoting Vectamart
Good morning all. There seems to have been some discussion recently on the merits of counter-trend entries. Although I'm sure that there is money to be earned from longs on EUR-USD, without meeting my normal pre-requisites they would be inherently risky and would need to be constantly monitored. Right now, we seem to be in consolidation mode and as I am only looking for shorts, I think it's unlikely that I will be entering until the price breaks out and falls convincingly to below 1.2875 {image}
I have one S/R @ 1.28843 and one @ 1.28705, just from the look of it, but sure 1.2875 might be something there too.
Think i found them on D1 or H4 and adjusted them on M5 a bit.
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  • #922,356
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:14am Sep 9, 2014 5:14am
Quoting TzarPips
{quote} nice entry. Holding through Carney?
it was a belated post, which is not wise on here, but Gov Carney dosnt worry me too much, if she can get some traction I will be looking to hold her for couple of days, will reassess Friday night
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #922,357
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:15am Sep 9, 2014 5:15am
Hi all, I am back from vacation.

So just in case you missed this reference from GS on 8/29 while i was on vacation in the last two weeks,
"Goldman Sachs today revised down its EUR/USD forecast to 1.29, 1.25 and 1.20 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.35, 1.34 and 1.30 previously). GS also revised its longer-term forecasts lower, bringing the end-2015 number down to 1.15 (from 1.27), that for end-2016 to 1.05 (from 1.23) and that for end-2017 to 1.00 (from 1.20)."
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  • #922,358
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:17am Sep 9, 2014 5:17am
Quoting Janut
Bulls are coming out of holes
Yeah its nice, they have been giving me money for 6 weeks
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  • #922,359
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:18am Sep 9, 2014 5:18am
Quoting FXSayWhat
Hi all, I am back from vacation. So just in case you missed this reference from GS on 8/29 while i was on vacation in the last two weeks, "Goldman Sachs today revised down its EUR/USD forecast to 1.29, 1.25 and 1.20 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.35, 1.34 and 1.30 previously). GS also revised its longer-term forecasts lower, bringing the end-2015 number down to 1.15 (from 1.27), that for end-2016 to 1.05 (from 1.23) and that for end-2017 to 1.00 (from 1.20)."
Have you looked at Goldmans balance sheet lately?
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #922,360
  • Sep 9, 2014 5:30am Sep 9, 2014 5:30am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} I was on Sydney open for ages, just this week trying frankfurt, may see what London looks like too
Hey Max,

Do you draw those levels on your chart manually, or do you use an indicator? I think someone once posted a link to a page that listed continually updated levels like that, but I'll be buggered if I can find it.

Thanks!
You reap what you sow.
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