EURUSD

How can you say BULLS are not hoping. We have not got anything which would suggest we go up from here. Look at post last 3 months. Everyone say so many things, and currency keep dropping. People say Oversold, bearish divergence, etc, and the price still go down. I for one believe we can make money both ways, but it is clear to see what people who keep buying are not only going against trend but most of the price action!

Bloomberg.

But we are already back to 1.2955 Seems like a little battle between banks before retailers can take any advantage out of it.

There is a gap down but it is on cable, where do you see a gap down on EU ?

Fundamentals are very complex, monetary policy is a clear drag on euro but on the other hand current account surplus are not to be forgotten. And it looks like every bank forgot euro current account in their latest papers. To me it means we have reached an extreme negative sentivement which must trigger a short term (at least) rebound.

You got to be kidding me ? Coming from someone spending his time here since 2008 that is amazing.

"Gay and proud " they say

Why now, why today or why this week. Yes, Fundamentals are very complex, that why I ask. why not next week, ot why not Friday?

Why what?

Because that's why.

"To me it means we have reached an extreme negative sentiment which must trigger a short term (at least) rebound."
What is this extreme sentiment and how you measure.

Well i give you that it is going to go up, since all it takes for it to go up is one pipette. Im guessing that is not the extend of what you ment. It would be a thing interily different if you would say: "In 48 hours from now it will be 100 pip north of where it is now." Ok, that could be interesting, that we could trade, just buy and put TP at 94 (if say the broker computes its spread to so much as 6.0 at that time). And then if you where wrong about that in 48 hours maybe what you said would seem not so interesting any more. But still, if it got to 99 pip north of where it is now in 48 hours, then i will still give it to you: You are a amazing trader. A lot better then me. I cant do THAT kind of precision. Loki, Nostradamus, Cornelius Agrippa, Jesus, Satan, Thor, the hermetics, Alex Jones, Karl Marx and Aliester crowley would all be quite interested in what sort of teachings you have been studying.

I think people are afraid of their own thought process. Because they dont know where it will take them. It can be hard to begin travelling to an unknown destination. Me, i like unknown destinations. Maybe i will get killed by angry bears or bulls in the place i go to. I cant say for certain the bears and the bulls are or are not going to kill me once i reach my destination. But if i just want to go to the store and buy pepsi and sit in front of my 60" plasma screen and let CNBC tell me whats what, then i wont have to be afraid of those unkown destinations.

I saw one moving, unknown object in the sky yesterday and one today. I dont know what either one of them are or why i saw them at the time that i did. But i am quite certain that i did see them. However im not as certain that E/U will be 100 pip north of where it is now in 48 hours. If i WAS certain that E/U will be 100 pip north of where it is now in a matter of 48 hours, i would still not bet my entire account on that one thing. For even if i AM certain E/U will be 100 pip north of where it is now in a matter of 48 hours, i can still be wrong. I think if i was certain for DEAD sure its going to be 100 pip north of where it is now in a matter of 48 hours, then i can bet... ooh lets say a weeks worth of work on that, so i give it 3,3% of my account.

3.3% of my account is X many pips with lot size Y.

And then given that you made that prediction, i would be really interested in your career as a trader and youre life: How did you learn to do that? What universe did you go to university in? What things did you eat or drink before you made the prediction? Who was your parents? What did your parents study? Where were you born? Things like that would all be quite interesting to me. I would try to find clues to describe why it is you seem to know so much that i could have a use for in my life. For the whole scenario to seem well in a large context, i would make it clear to you that i, while not being so amazing a trader as you are, are trying to give back to the world that love for knowledge and compassion that exists within these things we call "threads" here on this amazing virtual place we call Forex Factory.

But, to get back to what you where saying: Its going to go up, i take it that this refers to the next week and all that time that we choose to encompass in that "space" of time what we call "next week". That would mean your prediction is that the next W1 candle will be bull. Then its quite easy to compute a mean average TP. Just put a ATR, lets say period 5 on the W1 chart... lets see now... screen shot, go into paint, paste, remove unnecessary data, but lines to make to highlight important information for the reader. Well something like:



Ok, price right now = 1.29538. Since the ATR is 123.4, that would put us at 1.30772 some time during this week. (1.29538) + (0.01234) = 1.30772
Maybe you did not consider the ATR at period 5. Maybe you considered it at ATR 52 (year average W1 ATR). That would put us at 35 pip bove the ATR 5 prediction. Or maybe we can allow for some "wrong" in the prediction and consider a relatively safe TP at about 61.7 pip. (123.4) / (2)
That would get us up to 1.30155.

So to put it extremly bluntly, if you are 50% wrong, we will still be at least at 1.30155. So maybe i would put my TP at 1.30155 for that trade.

Okey. 61.7 pip in one week. If thats good or not depends on the drawdown i guess. If the drawdown gets to 99% of total account, and the TP is at 1.30155, then i would start getting at least a bit nervous. Also i think my woman would wonder what the hell im doing when im working. So maybe i would give your trading proposition 3.3% of my account in drawdown before i closed that trade i thought: "Okey, that was really stupid of me." And then the next week maybe i would not listen to your predictions quite so attentively. If i DID score my 61.7 pip victory thanks to your prediction and/or my interpretation of it, then i would truly respect youre knowledge as a trader, just for that one trade you would definetely be among the people i would want to talk to in order to learn more.

Like i wrote earlier, i try to give back of all the same coin that i have gained here. Maybe i do, some say i do. Maybe i dont, some say i dont. Me? I can just go on, drink my juice, smile my strange little smile that the french director commented on and be generally merry.

FYI: I try to compute how much "fun" people have in general defined in terms of time. Often i find out i have about 10 times as much fun as other people. Trading is fun. All the... well, aquainted areas of knowledge are fun.

I think i read somewhere here on FF that we dont make predictions, we trade. I dont know who said it, and its not important. But i truly think that is totally wrong. For: If we did not make predictions, when would we know to close on our profits? I do make predictions, they are not very good like so much in a week, that is SUPER, HYPER, NINJA, ULTRA, 31337, YHVH stuff i have almost no clue how to predict. My predictions even have to change every 5 minutes or so, they are THAT bad. I am no where NEAR 50% correct, im more like 0.66% right. Im sort of or at least maybe sometimes what people call "human", so right now without further studies i need to get by on my 0.66% correctness on my predictions. If i was 100% right every day i would multiply my account 32 times each week. (A) x (A) x (A) x (A) x (A)

In oooh... about a few weeks i would be able to (in theory) buy Russia, The US, Ukraine, Palestine/Israel and most other places to and everything that could be bought. Then maybe i would tell people to make solar panels, geothermal energy plants and build green houses and grow some nice fruit and vegetables, raise some goats, go hunting and fishing and be generally merry. Since if i owned it all, they would want to listen, or?

Well some people think they own things. Its quite an abusurd notion to say "I own that". Since the thing you are talking to is not physically attached to your body, how could you own it? Granted that you own your body, or at least its your temple and your spirit is controlling the temple, we are sort of stuck in... limited natural language in terms of communication so lets leave it at that for now. How can you "own" a thing? There is no metaphysical contract that defines what you own and what you dont own. Even if there was such a metaphysical contract, it might as well be a false document. Most documents are "false" in this way. Or at least thats my experience. When ever somebody wants my name in writing for no good reason, i go the other way.

FYI: Im a very sorry for my spelling, i know its quite bad. English is not the tounge of my mother or my father. I dont put that up as my excuse, im just saying it. There are a lot of very interesting things to know other then exactly how some people quite often for a short period of time usually think that they sometimes proununce a word.

To be honest, i dont really see the logic in trying to find out who any of you are. You are my friends until proven otherwise. Some of you i ignore, even though you are my friends, but thats my privelige to do so.

FYI: I have three half shitty positions open from last week. I better stop looking at that GOD DAMN numbers that im not going to do anything more about for at least... 5 minutes. 5 minutes what can i do in 5 minutes to really get things going and launch the next weird thing im going to do: Like go and lie down besides the most beautiful woman i ever met and the coolest little dude who ever was my son. Thats 3 minutes left. Roll a cigarette takes maybe 2 minutes. How to go get the tobacco. Also im still thirsty. Think i forgot to eat for 12 hours. Maybe i should do something about that shortly? Time is up. Time to decide. Right now. Right here. The next thing im going to do will set the course for the rest of my life. Maybe i just sit here and let my beard grow and drink juice and type like i am. Now im on 1 minute of lended time. I wonder what "time TP" i have for my "to do" trade. Is that even intelligeble? Nah. I like sir Arthur Conan Doyle. Two minutes of lended time. Thats my stoploss, time to go roll a cigarrette.

FYI: I dont endorse smoking. I dont endorse the things i do for anyone. I endorse them only for myself. Im quite stupid and thats OK. Im far more intelligent then most other people, but then again, they are not interested in 50+ different subjects.

Damnit! Thats 3 minutes of lended time. Who am i lending this from? Nordea? Goldman Sachs? Visa or mastercard? No thats not intelligeble either. The analogy is getting a bit far fetched. Think im going to leave it at that.

4 minutes of lended time.

Thought i said my stoploss was already hit?

When is this going to end?

Love is a good thing. I have no idea what you are talking about. Think i will go roll my cigarrette now instead.

Love is the greatest. Without it i have a difficulty to explain my birth and continued existence. I dont need to explain everything in detail, but it sort of feels like it helps to explain a thing here and a thing there for a bit.

I think i like you somewhat.

Oh whaddya know, my positions arent as shitty any more.

EDIT: Damnit, now they are about 0.35 shitty. Oh wait thats hardly intelligeble either. I cant comment on the shittyness of my positions in numerical terms since "shittyness" is a hardly adequately informative in terms of the 1-9 + 0 scale.

Hmm... maybe they are "Barely shitty". I cant say "Getting less shitty", for that would mean i know where its going, and i dont. Or well yeah i do, its either going up or down. Its probably not going inwards or outwards or up/left or down/left or backwards or frontwards or starboard. That i know quite for certain. It would not truly surprise me if it did go any of those peculiar directions, but a little puzzled at least i would be.

Also im quite glad it had not changed much from friday close to todays opening of the broker. That means i can still sort of fool myselfs my MAs actually mean something. Also something similar, but not so close to that goes for the envelopes.

Oh yeah now i understand what you ment. Yes, uuuh... of course.

What brand is that? can we say it here?
I prefer Samson or Amber Leaf.. as per tobacco

I highly doubt i will get much usefull knowledge from this question but i will fire it away anyhow: What is a "gap"?

gone through your posts today , took me some time to read the whole thing , but what can I say ! Perfect