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  • #921,981
  • Edited 12:14pm Sep 6, 2014 11:52am | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Funny how people still go long and HOPE for a reversal. Yes, you can have a SL below 2920 and go long, but you can also wait for a 2960 re-test, set SL above 1.3 and go with the trend. Worst case, you lose 40+- pips, but if nothing changes, this will go all the way down to 1.21, which is 800+ pips. Why BET against the trend, when there is no reversal on any chart? None on monthly, none on weekly, none on daily, none on H4, not even one on H1...and you people still long it. I don't get it. If you want to go long, then wait for a clear reversal on...
At the moment there are very few fundamentals supporting long positions, but countless technicals to go both long or short on different time frames with varying number of pip TPs and SLs. So many variables affect this market that no one can be right or wrong at any or all the time. One way I know to operate in these market conditions is to wait for the area of high volatility, forget about making 300, 500 or 150 pips, just take chance of a bounce from key levels, win or lose few pips and then again wait for the next volatile level. It is very painful to see pa going 100, 200 or 500 pips in one's favor soon after closing the position for 17 pip profit, but these small gains less losses keep one going for a long time in this business, mostly with consistent net gains. People like Jesse Livermore and Warren Buffett learned to trade based on fundamentals and holding longer term, but these were either commodities or stocks. Forex market has its own dynamics, no doubt it has some similarities with commodities and stocks but it is good market to trade small, frequent and grow a forex account balance by compounding small gains.
The bottom line therefore is, no one is right or wrong in buying or selling no matter what charts and fundamentals say, it all depends what is one's overall scheme.

We today, have this opportunity to trade small and for few pips, tomorrow will be altogether different with new trading rules and restrictions. At that time, we will realize how stupid we were by not digging the gold scoop by scoop but wanting to empty the goldmine we were sitting on in a day or two.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,982
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:00pm Sep 6, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Funny how people still go long and HOPE for a reversal. Yes, you can have a SL below 2920 and go long, but you can also wait for a 2960 re-test, set SL above 1.3 and go with the trend. Worst case, you lose 40+- pips, but if nothing changes, this will go all the way down to 1.21, which is 800+ pips. Why BET against the trend, when there is no reversal on any chart? None on monthly, none on weekly, none on daily, none on H4, not even one on H1...and you people still long it. I don't get it. If you want to go long, then wait for a clear reversal on...
People should start to listen, its true when the trends is trending, none of the technical matters .. they can go all the way oversold and still hitting rick bottom, or overbought and making higher high ...
  • #921,983
  • Sep 6, 2014 1:45pm Sep 6, 2014 1:45pm
Its been 4 weeks since I started trading Forex. I lost half my equity in 1st week, I examined my trades thoroughly over weekend and saw one main flaw. I almost always went against the trend. "The price is way down, it must come back up now" (and vice versa), this thinking killed half my equity. I wrote, "Never go against the trend" on paper and put it next to my screen. I didn't see a single unprofitable day for next 3 weeks.
  • #921,984
  • Sep 6, 2014 2:53pm Sep 6, 2014 2:53pm
Trend is your friend & Trend is down to go to 1.2750 atleast
  • #921,985
  • Sep 6, 2014 3:00pm Sep 6, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Thank you. I think I have internalized the RR concept although I still don't have the confidence to use these very small stops. In my case I bought 3015 with 15 pip stop AND split position, so reducing the potential to 23% but for 1% risk, which nevertheless is very good, I think. But the split on the other hand allowed me to get out at b/e. The problem is, that I as well longed the 3102 and the 3084, whereas I think you didn't, or only would have if you'd have confirmation. Do you have any advice for that?
any of the ones with a target you can blindly take. for instance 3102 before 4146.. near 4146 but below, u could have shorted. just because you put a pending, dont mean u will get a enty. lets say you put one at 4140 and we had gotten there. your stop was 6 pips +.. lets say 10 pips.. your r/r was 104 or more... at 1% thats 103.8%.... few will go that close to 4146... and of those some will blow through especially yen pairs or gbp.. but they may still go back after especially if it was a news spike. if u manage to get one like this. you also can add as you seeing other indicators showing the trade is right
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #921,986
  • Sep 6, 2014 3:07pm Sep 6, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting Nabz
Its been 4 weeks since I started trading Forex. I lost half my equity in 1st week, I examined my trades thoroughly over weekend and saw one main flaw. I almost always went against the trend. "The price is way down, it must come back up now" (and vice versa), this thinking killed half my equity. I wrote, "Never go against the trend" on paper and put it next to my screen. I didn't see a single unprofitable day for next 3 weeks.
It is also true that most of the time pa is NOT trending.

Trade what you see and not what you expect pa should do.

It seems to me that you had no rules for your trading nor did you have a plan in your first week.

And if you had no rules and not even a plan when to exit you lose not little but big time.

See it that way:

Now everybody is talking about a reversal because it SHOULD do. But honestly, has it done yet?
Is someone here to decide that? On what signs?
Would it not be more clever to leave out the the unknown rise of E/U until you can make a trade on a new fall again?

It is all about probabilities, nothing more. You can have levels like s***. After a day like Thursday you see that a lot of them can be broken in a row. But how many days a year do we have such moves? 1? 2?

Trend is the last thing I would care about. Too seldom nowadays.
Chicky already wrote it: Make 10-20 pips p.d. and you are done.
  • #921,987
  • Sep 6, 2014 3:18pm Sep 6, 2014 3:18pm
There has never been 9 consecutive down weeks on E/U, I doubt we will get a 9th one with that superb miss on NFP. May be if Russia bomb Ukraine you will get it but that is just a dream.

I just want to earn some pips that is why I go long, Im not an ennemy of your trend.
  • #921,988
  • Sep 6, 2014 3:42pm Sep 6, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting Imaywin
There has never been 9 consecutive down weeks on E/U
This is the easiest way to lose money...When GU was at 1.70, it had the most bear days in YEARS, so I thought its the best opportunity to buy it. What happened? Its 700 pips lower now and probably 500 more pips to go. Next week might be up, but there is no clear sign for that. Look at NFP, price before NFP was 2957, price after NFP 2950, bulls got raped so hard, their butts must still hurt, so no reversal yet whatsoever, there is simply no bull power. Once there is, I will happily buy.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #921,989
  • Sep 6, 2014 4:10pm Sep 6, 2014 4:10pm
The very bad NFP will weigh on USD the whole month, not just the day its released. Market will price a more dovish FOMC statement.
  • #921,990
  • Sep 6, 2014 6:32pm Sep 6, 2014 6:32pm
It appear most people like selling EU now. 2 weeks ago many people were buying. I would say that most people who will get hurt now are the sellers. As the move down is slower now, and the moves up sharper. You can see on graph
  • #921,991
  • Sep 6, 2014 7:39pm Sep 6, 2014 7:39pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} It is also true that most of the time pa is NOT trending. Trade what you see and not what you expect pa should do. It seems to me that you had no rules for your trading nor did you have a plan in your first week. And if you had no rules and not even a plan when to exit you lose not little but big time. See it that way: Now everybody is talking about a reversal because it SHOULD do. But honestly, has it done yet? Is someone here to decide that? On what signs? Would it not be more clever to leave out the the unknown rise of E/U until you can...
I agree, my stop loss strategy was a mess as well. Instead of putting stop loss above resistance or below support, I just made my own figure of 20 pips stop loss regardless of where support and resistance were. What I do now is never go against the main trend, like I only went long in USDCHF / USDJPY and short in EURUSD during last 3 weeks. I believe there are more chances the trend would continue than take a complete reversal. Mostly I avoid entry before important news, but on Thursday I took the risk and went with the trend.
  • #921,992
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:32pm Sep 6, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I am surprised why not 500 pips? Some crazy people always keep an eye on figures like these in addition to browsing for curvy figures while market is not moving. {image}
Because that would mean instability.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #921,993
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:35pm Sep 6, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting liquidice
{quote} People should start to listen, its true when the trends is trending, none of the technical matters .. they can go all the way oversold and still hitting rick bottom, or overbought and making higher high ...
If it wasnt so that would mean instability and everybody would catch fire and there would be brimstone and stuff.

My father asked me: "Did you learn how trade like the other people?"
I said: "No, thats impossible, everybody trades differently and if there was one good, widely known way to trade, the world economy would crash for nobody would do anything but sit and wait until its time to trade and nothing would happen."
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #921,994
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:37pm Sep 6, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} any of the ones with a target you can blindly take. for instance 3102 before 4146.. near 4146 but below, u could have shorted. just because you put a pending, dont mean u will get a enty. lets say you put one at 4140 and we had gotten there. your stop was 6 pips +.. lets say 10 pips.. your r/r was 104 or more... at 1% thats 103.8%.... few will go that close to 4146... and of those some will blow through especially yen pairs or gbp.. but they may still go back after especially if it was a news spike. if u manage to get one like this. you...
Yeah exactly. And if all that dont work, there is always astrology trading.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #921,995
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:41pm Sep 6, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting Nabz
Its been 4 weeks since I started trading Forex. I lost half my equity in 1st week, I examined my trades thoroughly over weekend and saw one main flaw. I almost always went against the trend. "The price is way down, it must come back up now" (and vice versa), this thinking killed half my equity. I wrote, "Never go against the trend" on paper and put it next to my screen. I didn't see a single unprofitable day for next 3 weeks.
It's not the trend, it's because you are taking too much of a risk. I am on my cell phone right now. Send me a pm if you need any help
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,996
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:45pm Sep 6, 2014 9:45pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} It is also true that most of the time pa is NOT trending.
But if there is PA 100% of the time, there is trend 0% of the time?

Or is it more like PA 75% of the time and then the candles goes away and there is trend for 25% of the time?

In that case can you show me something like that on a chart where you did NOT remove the candles yourself?

Better still, can you show me on a chart what you mean?
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #921,997
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:48pm Sep 6, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting Nabz
{quote} I agree, my stop loss strategy was a mess as well. Instead of putting stop loss above resistance or below support, I just made my own figure of 20 pips stop loss regardless of where support and resistance were. What I do now is never go against the main trend, like I only went long in USDCHF / USDJPY and short in EURUSD during last 3 weeks. I believe there are more chances the trend would continue than take a complete reversal. Mostly I avoid entry before important news, but on Thursday I took the risk and went with the trend.
You said you follow the trend direction, do you have it on D1 chart or 4H?
Thank you for sharing your experience, a lot to learn.
I'm tired of making many samll GREEN pips, then one BIG red wash them all.
  • #921,998
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:49pm Sep 6, 2014 9:49pm
Quoting yaed
{quote} If it wasnt so that would mean instability and everybody would catch fire and there would be brimstone and stuff. My father asked me: "Did you learn how trade like the other people?" I said: "No, thats impossible, everybody trades differently and if there was one good, widely known way to trade, the world economy would crash for nobody would do anything but sit and wait until its time to trade and nothing would happen."
Even if there was one successful way of trading, it still doesn't mean everybody would trade that way. Its like when you are in the store, where most people end up by finishing their shopping, thats where the biggest line is. You go further away from there and the line gets smaller and smaller and eventually you may find a cashier with no line at all. I don't want to be mean, but most people are just dumb and it will always be like that. Trading is all about psychology and even though many people have the right target in mind, they simply chicken out before it gets hit. I work on that one, too.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #921,999
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:49pm Sep 6, 2014 9:49pm
Quoting Imaywin
I just want to earn some pips that is why I go long, Im not an ennemy of your trend.
Oh thats nice to hear. If you actually WHERE an enemy of someones trend, what would happen? How does a person go about being an enemy of someones trend?
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #922,000
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:50pm Sep 6, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} they simply chicken out before it gets hit.
Before what gets hit? Not the chicken i assume?
My signature is: "Classified".
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