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  • #921,961
  • Edited 5:52pm Sep 5, 2014 5:33pm | Edited 5:52pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
I was thinking why 2920 was holding today, after such a strong daily candle and maybe weekly shows us why. The middle line is weekly trendline and the bottom line is monthly trendline. 2920 is a very important stop, either towards 1.38 or 1.21. Technically, both is possible, fundamentally, probably only 1.21. Its interresting how it stopped there exactly to the pip. I will try to buy 293x next week, with a SL at 2919, because if it bounces there, the rr ratio would be amazing. If it doesn't, I only lose 15+- pips. On the other side, I will have...
We can find other technical reasons for price stopping here.
Price stopped precisely at Monthly Pivot Support 2, + .864 Ret from last swing weekly chart from 1.27 to 1.40 and 2.00 Extension of very last swing. These are the ratios of bullish pattern but we don't have any reversal candles especially on this time frame.
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  • #921,962
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:49pm Sep 5, 2014 5:49pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} We can find other technical reasons for price stopping here. Price stopped precisely at Monthly Pivot Support 2, + .864 Ret from last swing weekly chart from 1.27 to 1.40 and 2.00 Extension of very last swing. These are the ratios of bullish pattern but we don't have any reversal candles especially on this time frame.
ECB is not acting is reacting and Mr Draghi is not finding solutions.
  • #921,963
  • Edited 6:41pm Sep 5, 2014 6:08pm | Edited 6:41pm
Quoting bewayopa
{quote} ECB is not acting is reacting and Mr Draghi is not finding solutions.
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD Technical I expect 1.35 as strong support including 1.3475 (Yearly pivot) which was my previous technical forecast, the reasons behind are too many bearish signs including this last week's Wash and rinse of the previous top, butterfly sell from Monthly R1 with 1.27 extension of swing before last and, also the strength of the move which imo can't be ignored. We could expect a bounce up from this area as respect from Fib levels .50 + .786 (confluence) from previous swings (Daily chart), and then try to join the party (if you haven't yet) sell...
This was written months ago and still holds.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #921,964
  • Sep 5, 2014 7:08pm Sep 5, 2014 7:08pm
Quoting bewayopa
{quote} ECB is not acting is reacting and Mr Draghi is not finding solutions.
It is very little known fact that Mr Draghi is a former member of FF. He made a couple of posts also here on EURUSD thread. If you want to see what he wrote and how, check user name Alghoze (not sure about the spelling)
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,965
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:15pm Sep 5, 2014 9:15pm
Will be looking to sell on rallies
I believe 1.27 is good area for position building on long side.There is no reason for me to buy a sinking ship now
H4 is bearish
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #921,966
  • Edited 11:15pm Sep 5, 2014 11:02pm | Edited 11:15pm
Gazal - is a poetic formconsisting of rhyming couplets and a refrain, with each line sharing the same meter. A ghazal may be understood as a poetic expression of both the pain of loss or separation and the beauty of love in spite of that pain. The form is ancient, originating in 6th-century Arabic verse. It is derived from the Arabian panegyric qasida. The structural requirements of the ghazal are similar in stringency to those of the Petrarchan sonnet. In style and content it is a genre that has proved capable of an extraordinary variety of expression around its central themes of love and separation. It is one of the principal poetic forms which the Indo-Perso-Arabic civilization offered to the eastern Islamic world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghazal

Your body color is like that of silver and hair like gold. You are the only rich in the world my beloved, rest are just bums.

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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,967
  • Sep 5, 2014 11:10pm Sep 5, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting pipster1
Hey guys for whoever is interested... this is my eval on how and when you should consider going counter trend. I took this long on the EU. This is conservative trading and gives you a higher probability of success rather than simply relying on fibo or pivots. The more evidence of a turn the better. Evidence For this trade. 1) We had a slightly higher low 2) Had a double bottom on the Midrange timeframe level. 3) Great entry pattern on the entry chart (M5 to M30) followed by a continuation pattern... which I took. 4) Made a HH on the midrange which...
Hey pipster1 how can I set up my charts like that? Any suggestions
  • #921,968
  • Sep 6, 2014 12:18am Sep 6, 2014 12:18am
rest are just bums?

bhai how did you concluded that translation?
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #921,969
  • Edited 12:38am Sep 6, 2014 12:20am | Edited 12:38am
Quoting KingHussain
rest are just bums? bhai how did you concluded that translation?
Kanghal is a Bum in slang.

I did not translate, just conveyed the meaning. There is a great difference between translating script word for word and translating a thought giving the same expression.

Translation of Cool is Thanda, but translation of Cool! is Oh Madarchod or Oh Behanchod.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,970
  • Sep 6, 2014 12:23am Sep 6, 2014 12:23am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Kanghal is a Bum in slang.
ruined is better translation
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #921,971
  • Sep 6, 2014 12:26am Sep 6, 2014 12:26am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Kanghal is a Bum in slang. I did not translate, just conveyed the meaning. There is a great difference between a translating script word for word and translating a thought giving the same expression. Translation of Cool is Thanda, but translation of Cool! is Oh Madarchod or Oh Behanchod.
bahot cool hai tu bhai

any says say my salam to your 4 wives
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #921,972
  • Sep 6, 2014 12:32am Sep 6, 2014 12:32am
Quoting KingHussain
{quote} bahot cool hai tu bhai any says say my salam to your 4 wives
Thanks for the compliments. Now you are learning.

I have leased all five of them to Killer Whale for 3 months.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,973
  • Sep 6, 2014 3:17am Sep 6, 2014 3:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} those strong move ones are face to face with a freight train.. i did one yesterday at 3015. but my stop was 3011.. i did it blindly. i lost,,, i lost 1/4%,,, now had i been successful. 100 pips divided by the 4 pips is 25X.25%. =6.25. that ones norm was 3747,, 3747-3011 at 6.25 per 100 = 46% at a trade i can set and forget. i didnt think we would reverse, i did think it had a possible decent bounce. it cost me 1/4% to take the chance. those larger setups are few and far between. most times they are widder like 4146 was to 3102. but if one...
Thank you. I think I have internalized the RR concept although I still don't have the confidence to use these very small stops. In my case I bought 3015 with 15 pip stop AND split position, so reducing the potential to 23% but for 1% risk, which nevertheless is very good, I think. But the split on the other hand allowed me to get out at b/e.
The problem is, that I as well longed the 3102 and the 3084, whereas I think you didn't, or only would have if you'd have confirmation. Do you have any advice for that?
Fail better.
  • #921,974
  • Sep 6, 2014 3:33am Sep 6, 2014 3:33am
After being stopped at 1.33, I am reentering for same contrarian reasons (futures positionning, lack of any decent retracement for more than 2 months). SL at close under 1.2900 and target at 1.3210.
  • #921,975
  • Edited 7:13am Sep 6, 2014 3:48am | Edited 7:13am
Copper
After trading the red Bfly Buy (posted here) we can try to anticipate the formation of another Bfly this time a Sell. So far the ratios are looking good and there is only 1 condition I would like to see met. 1- PA close above Monthly Pivot. Targets for this trade: 1.27 and 1.618 extensions the latter close to MR2 at 3.32.
If you want to trade it using the last low daily chart (.786 Ret) no problem as long you adjust the size of the position to the distance of the stop, you don't want to risk more than 2% Max.
If you are more conservative then look at the last 2 candles daily chart, draw your fib lines and look at 61.8 and 78.6 Ret for Buy entries hourly chart.
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  • #921,976
  • Edited 4:47am Sep 6, 2014 4:35am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} USDJPY Here is the chart: I wouldn't be surprised with another dip just to touch fibs and clear some stops, but this is what I am looking for. From now on I am only looking for reversal candles 4 hours, daily and intraday patterns. GL {image}
USDJPY
Pa closed above MR1 and that is a sign that confirms bullish power, as well first extensions were broken pretty quick. Next confluence level is located at 106.03 this is 1.618 Ext Weekly chart + MR2, use pullbacks to add more.
If you look at Dollar Index weekly chart you will see there is more room to the upside before next resistance.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #921,977
  • Edited 7:12am Sep 6, 2014 5:30am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting pedro319
USDCAD Daily picture remains the same despite the sell off. You may want to watch the possibility of Bfly Buy 4 hours chart, where the left wing is already formed, price needs to come down to .618 or .786 Ret 4 Hours chart and that should be the limit. AUDUSD I am short, however daily candle too big and created new swing, so I need to see another selling signal on Daily. GBPUSD Price still sitting at MS1 + WS3 + bullish pattern (Cypher daily) PA doesn't confirm this yet. EURUSD Same update. Today there will be ECB Interest decision and press conf....
USDCAD
This is the Bfly I was talking about. Now couple of moments we need to see here: The retracement down was more than .786 Ret 4 hours chart (.864) but this still allows harmonic formation as long the low on daily chart remains, I prefer to see the mentioned ratios but that it's not the case. We have some of the elements in place namely: Bullish retracement (Daily chart confluence), reversal candles (daily + 4 hours), what we should have as well is a close above MPivot and 200 Ma, this is the Risk + the fact that Oil still has a bullish pattern.
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  • #921,978
  • Sep 6, 2014 8:51am Sep 6, 2014 8:51am
Funny how people still go long and HOPE for a reversal. Yes, you can have a SL below 2920 and go long, but you can also wait for a 2960 re-test, set SL above 1.3 and go with the trend. Worst case, you lose 40+- pips, but if nothing changes, this will go all the way down to 1.21, which is 800+ pips. Why BET against the trend, when there is no reversal on any chart? None on monthly, none on weekly, none on daily, none on H4, not even one on H1...and you people still long it. I don't get it. If you want to go long, then wait for a clear reversal on the chart, don't just hope you catched the bottom, because "its oversold, it has to go up now". It can be as oversold as it wants...it can still fall as deep as it wants...don't trade against the trend, its suicidal.

I will go short from 2960-70, if 2920 breaks, I will just keep adding on each way up.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #921,979
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:25am Sep 6, 2014 9:25am
Quoting OnlineAddict
Funny how people still go long and HOPE for a reversal. Yes, you can have a SL below 2920 and go long, but you can also wait for a 2960 re-test, set SL above 1.3 and go with the trend. Worst case, you lose 40+- pips, but if nothing changes, this will go all the way down to 1.21, which is 800+ pips. Why BET against the trend, when there is no reversal on any chart? None on monthly, none on weekly, none on daily, none on H4, not even one on H1...and you people still long it. I don't get it. If you want to go long, then wait for a clear reversal on...
That's also how I see it. Better to go with the trend.
  • #921,980
  • Edited 2:32pm Sep 6, 2014 11:36am | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Funny how people still go long and HOPE for a reversal. Yes, you can have a SL below 2920 and go long, but you can also wait for a 2960 re-test, set SL above 1.3 and go with the trend. Worst case, you lose 40+- pips, but if nothing changes, this will go all the way down to 1.21, which is 800+ pips. Why BET against the trend, when there is no reversal on any chart? None on monthly, none on weekly, none on daily, none on H4, not even one on H1...and you people still long it. I don't get it. If you want to go long, then wait for a clear reversal on...
The trend is not down on the very long term, there is a perfect support line that lies at 1.29, I like to be contrarian here at least for next week because a rebound is highly likely. When Fed announced QE2 on November 3th 2010 we had a big rally in USD during the whole month, same with QE3 announcement on September 12th 2012, another short term bottom for US$ index. Watch your history guys, why would euro go down when ABS was largely expected before end of year anyway ?

And don't get me wrong, Im not expecting a big reversal aka a return to 1.40. Actually nobody expect that so may be that is what will happen, anyway Ill be happy to go back to neutral if we reach my target at 1.3210
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