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The similarity system

  • #7,461
  • Sep 4, 2014 10:36am Sep 4, 2014 10:36am
I think the psychological barrier that 1.300 played in terms of being a bounce point for any descent coming from 1.39, 1.38 and particularly 1.36-1.34 has now been wiped out. The fundamentals have been absorbed and I take note of the Swiss and Yen effect on the EUR.

I would be looking to capitalise on the break of 1.30 and be entering as close as possible to 1.30 within safety of your SL because projections all the way down to 1.28 and 1.27 now don't seem like fairytale possibilities. Whether it bounces higher than 1.30 is the risk, but that can be easily managed given the opportunity of 300-400 pips towards 1.27. Heck, you even have good ole MaxDoom projecting 1.21 / 1.16 / 1.12 and 1.08 (near parity) .... and Max's predictions have above 90% accuracy based on tech and fundie. So today is a watershed moment. 4th September - shouldn't really be a surprise as these things tend to happen in Sep and Oct.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,462
  • Sep 4, 2014 10:55am Sep 4, 2014 10:55am
Quoting vlady1974
I think the psychological barrier that 1.300 played in terms of being a bounce point for any descent coming from 1.39, 1.38 and particularly 1.36-1.34 has now been wiped out. The fundamentals have been absorbed and I take note of the Swiss and Yen effect on the EUR. I would be looking to capitalise on the break of 1.30 and be entering as close as possible to 1.30 within safety of your SL because projections all the way down to 1.28 and 1.27 now don't seem like fairytale possibilities. Whether it bounces higher than 1.30 is the risk,...
Short from 2932
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,463
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:05am Sep 4, 2014 11:05am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Short from 2932
apparently there is a stop at 2.9000
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #7,464
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:14am Sep 4, 2014 11:14am
Aaaaaand to add to the EUR short cause..... http://news.sky.com/story/1330146/ukraine-3000-russian-troops-in-country
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,465
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:41am Sep 4, 2014 11:41am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Pls pardon my ignorance, but are those the zones you mean???
Attached Image


Sorry for bringing up an old post. These 4 transient zones in the chart, are they from a higher time frame?
  • #7,466
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:47am Sep 4, 2014 11:47am
Quoting summicron
{quote} {image} Sorry for bringing up an old post. These 4 transient zones in the chart, are they from a higher time frame?
No Summicron. They are from the current TF. There's an indicator posted that draws those zones automatically now.
  • #7,467
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:21pm Sep 4, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting vlady1974
I think the psychological barrier that 1.300 played in terms of being a bounce point for any descent coming from 1.39, 1.38 and particularly 1.36-1.34 has now been wiped out. The fundamentals have been absorbed and I take note of the Swiss and Yen effect on the EUR. I would be looking to capitalise on the break of 1.30 and be entering as close as possible to 1.30 within safety of your SL because projections all the way down to 1.28 and 1.27 now don't seem like fairytale possibilities. Whether it bounces higher than 1.30 is the risk, but that...
EUR flushed down the toilet.
Attached Image
  • #7,468
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:05pm Sep 4, 2014 2:05pm
Maybe this is the start of the Autumn volatility!.. fingersxd
  • #7,469
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:23pm Sep 4, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Short from 2932
Bit of a bad trade... but shorted at 55 and 44 and closed everything at 34.
Out and flat.

Looking to short again at:
2955
2973
2995
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,470
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:25pm Sep 4, 2014 2:25pm
the lowest level i have for euro/doller is 12476,longer term monthly potential,

umm food for thought
  • #7,471
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:43pm Sep 4, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting diceman555
the lowest level i have for euro/doller is 12476,longer term monthly potential, umm food for thought
All very possible.
Ironically, I have 2764 as my first monthly target using the Daily tf

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1D.png Size: 95 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,472
  • Edited 10:25pm Sep 4, 2014 5:26pm | Edited 10:25pm
i just saw dissimilarity @GU, i wonder if GU going to up if find similarity?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu dis.jpg Size: 140 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DIS GU.jpg Size: 160 KB
  • #7,473
  • Sep 4, 2014 10:28pm Sep 4, 2014 10:28pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Exactly. My thinking around this is putting in place the mental and mechanical triggers against the reversal strategies. For instance, I was long but not long biased.... so my timeframe perspective was still Bearish on the Monthly and 4H but I was relying heavily on that 1H close. The flatness of the consolidation mentally made me "want" a bounce rather than trading the obvious break..... which I did.. but late. The getting in bit, was literally not a trade decision, it was a mental switch decision..... - No, it's not long anymore. It's...
Hi Vlady, great prediction. For today, without looking at technical signals, is there a "Rule" that after a big down move yesterday, it will go up or swing (up, then down) by nfp today?
  • #7,474
  • Sep 5, 2014 12:04am Sep 5, 2014 12:04am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} jimsterk, we are working with discrete stochastic process. If you work with the closing of the bar, then your prices are referred to the closing price. If X (t) is the closing price of the bar ends at 12:05, then there must be a value "k" optimal, allowing us to calculate "h" and therefore areas transient and recurrent.
Hi, burnssss.

Thank you for reply!
Close price. That make sense and make calculation easier.

btw, do you have any idea about how we can produce revolution with transient/recurrent and DNA?

Thank you.
  • #7,475
  • Sep 5, 2014 1:50am Sep 5, 2014 1:50am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} All very possible. Ironically, I have 2764 as my first monthly target using the Daily tf {image}
ironically ,but theres a number of strange coincidences i find in my calculations !

starting to see convergence building at these extrme low levels of 124/5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg epic 1.jpg Size: 309 KB
  • #7,476
  • Sep 5, 2014 2:23am Sep 5, 2014 2:23am
Quoting probabilita
{quote} Hi Vlady, great prediction. For today, without looking at technical signals, is there a "Rule" that after a big down move yesterday, it will go up or swing (up, then down) by nfp today?
I would not hear what the advertising say. Without a solid technical analysis (some people using fundamental information) and calculation, for me it is just guessing. And guessing is gambling, you just have 50% probability all the time. If your system/indicator is wrong, then it is good that you know it. You need to improve it, until you get good result with your system. Once you solve the problem, you will have a good system soon ....
  • #7,477
  • Sep 5, 2014 2:33am Sep 5, 2014 2:33am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} All very possible. Ironically, I have 2764 as my first monthly target using the Daily tf {image}
Quoting diceman555
{quote} ironically ,but theres a number of strange coincidences i find in my calculations ! starting to see convergence building at these extrme low levels of 124/5 {image}
i have 1.2740 - 1.2755, or may be it will fall deeper ?
  • #7,478
  • Edited 3:30am Sep 5, 2014 3:03am | Edited 3:30am
Quoting probabilita
{quote} Hi Vlady, great prediction. For today, without looking at technical signals, is there a "Rule" that after a big down move yesterday, it will go up or swing (up, then down) by nfp today?
There is no such rule.

A while back I posted that price is a bunch of points of data. Data points flow, just like a stream.The law of inertia applies to data flows.So if price moved down in a big way, what makes you think it MUST bounce unless you know the fundamental price that will stop it. Since nobody knows, we wait for a reaction.

Edit: (now that I'm not on a train)
There are times when you see a deep bar followed immediately by another deep bar in the opposite direction. They make pin bars on a higher timeframe.
But in this case with EU... it was a DAY bar. 2 hours of descent and it didn't bounce immediately afterwards. You also know the reason why - Draghi ECB.... these are real reasons not technical reasons that impact a global economy. So it's NOT going back up. What would make it go back up???? Retrace yes. To clear 3152??? Absolutely not!! Momentum was down. It will remain down because that is what Europe needs.... a lower currency to ease debt and favour exports just to name a tiny few.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,479
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:36am Sep 5, 2014 3:36am
Quoting probabilita
{quote} Hi Vlady, great prediction. For today, without looking at technical signals, is there a "Rule" that after a big down move yesterday, it will go up or swing (up, then down) by nfp today?
Your question is a gift that keeps on giving!
I forgot about NFP..... this phenomenon creates 100 pip swings. Sometimes it slides into it and goes in one direction. More times it whipsaws from one end to another.
There's no way of knowing what direction unless you have invested money into streams of news and data feeds. So I would wait on reaction. NFP news is not normal market conditions... wait until it comes back to tell you which direction.

Having said that.... if you have critical levels mapped out then if news passes those critical levels and you have orders in place, then perhaps you're on a winner. But waring: Stop Loss has to be very big. If you put in a SL of 5 pips at example 2919 you will get done. But perhaps if you pending short at 2890, you may get away with it.... but what if it goes to 2888 and then retraces to 2922 before going down???? Is it worth it?

I have traded news before... I win, I lose. I remember the losers rather than the winners. There are some news trading systems but again.... worth it? NFP is once a month. Surely you can get your 50+ pips on any other week/day!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,480
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:15am Sep 5, 2014 4:15am
I have levels below that I'm looking for shorts at:

2993
2973
2955

So I may fade in from 71.
2942 and 2918 are obvious supports to look at for breaks lower
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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