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The similarity system

  • #7,401
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:06am Sep 3, 2014 11:06am
Quoting vlady1974
15M didn't close outside Bollinger Band (COBB) so I would say it's gonna test the highs at 3160 again. {image}
A lot will depend on how newyork closes today. If NY closes below 3130, then expect 3110 to be tested again. If not I'm targeting 3220.
  • #7,402
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:34am Sep 3, 2014 11:34am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} A lot will depend on how newyork closes today. If NY closes below 3130, then expect 3110 to be tested again. If not I'm targeting 3220.
It's shitty when PA does this... I'm tempted to start looking at other pairs again but I really wanted to concentrate on EU the last two months but seriously then ranges in between moves is just abysmal. 10 days and only 1 decent day of volatility.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,403
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:38am Sep 3, 2014 11:38am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} A lot will depend on how newyork closes today. If NY closes below 3130, then expect 3110 to be tested again. If not I'm targeting 3220.
But to add to your post, the 4H to 4pm closed below the 3143 which is better for bears.
The 1H is right on the bollinger mid of 3135 as well, so a break of that south, I agree will see 3110 again.

It's still possible for NYC to creep into 3112 which sort of implies preparation for a bullish tone for the next 2 days.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,404
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:51am Sep 3, 2014 11:51am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} It's shitty when PA does this... I'm tempted to start looking at other pairs again but I really wanted to concentrate on EU the last two months but seriously then ranges in between moves is just abysmal. 10 days and only 1 decent day of volatility.
It's certainly worth taking a look at other pairs. Easier money elsewhere no doubt. Just weigh ADR/SPREAD and you should know what else to pay attention to.
  • #7,405
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:54am Sep 3, 2014 11:54am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} But to add to your post, the 4H to 4pm closed below the 3143 which is better for bears. The 1H is right on the bollinger mid of 3135 as well, so a break of that south, I agree will see 3110 again. It's still possible for NYC to creep into 3112 which sort of implies preparation for a bullish tone for the next 2 days.
I really don't give much weight to candle closes. Just NY closing prices, weekly closes and monthly closes.
  • #7,406
  • Sep 3, 2014 4:38pm Sep 3, 2014 4:38pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} A lot will depend on how newyork closes today. If NY closes below 3130, then expect 3110 to be tested again. If not I'm targeting 3220.
NewYork close above 3130 as expected, so 3220 in my crosshairs. Tomorrow should be very interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,407
  • Sep 3, 2014 6:10pm Sep 3, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} NewYork close above 3130 as expected, so 3220 in my crosshairs. Tomorrow should be very interesting. {image}
Awesome entry. I have to agree with your analysis based on the 4H.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.png Size: 121 KB

 

  1. Sequence so far is Bottom to Bottom, with a failed crossover of the Bollinger Mid at the "X"
  2. Current Bottom shows the next sequence to be a Top after price crossed the Bollinger Mid today.
  3. Price targets show Supply Zones in two areas: 3206-3220 and 3185 to 3190
  4. Playful projection of price movement by yellow arrows given the news evens of the coming days.

I am still bearish overall, but mindful that we need a correction to complete Wave 4. This correction should be a deep one, but that does not mean a change in trend unless the 1H crosses over the 300EMA which ain't gonna happen.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H.png Size: 143 KB


The 1H continues to stay above the Bollinger Mid, so even though price action has Closed Outside Bollinger Band (COBB) indicating a Bottom for the next sequence, price continues to hug the upper channel indicating higher moves. 4H trumps 1H and so I can project moves to the next Supply Zone above.

In addition, I've been looking at Average Daily Range (ADR) and can see that the above analysis is supported on a daily ADR projection from the opening prices. Northern target shows 319X supporting the 32XX price targets. If this is wrong, then the base of support is still 3109/3112 and again, the news would have to be pretty savage for it to drop through the floor without some northern spike.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H-ADR.png Size: 53 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,408
  • Sep 3, 2014 6:22pm Sep 3, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Awesome entry. I have to agree with your analysis based on the 4H. {image} Sequence so far is Bottom to Bottom, with a failed crossover of the Bollinger Mid at the "X" Current Bottom shows the next sequence to be a Top after price crossed the Bollinger Mid today. Price targets show Supply Zones in two areas: 3206-3220 and 3185 to 3190 Playful projection of price movement by yellow arrows given the news evens of the coming days. I am still bearish overall, but mindful that we need a correction to complete Wave 4. This correction should be...
  • #7,409
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:41am Sep 4, 2014 12:41am
Quoting jimsterk
I have just finished reading. Very interesting idea. recurrent and transient. I have never thought that the price p(t) is the projection to the space S. Has anyone proven the proposition1 ? (maybe burnssss ?) It would impose heavy calculation though. Thank you.
Maybe language barrier, but i do not exactly understand the proposition 1.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: proposition1.png Size: 18 KB


Eurusdd or anyone, could you please elaborate on this?

thank you.

edit: or maybe 1.31000+-0.00010, 1.31010+-0.00010, 1.31020+-0.00010, ... , 1.31100+-0.00010 ?
  • #7,410
  • Sep 4, 2014 1:28am Sep 4, 2014 1:28am
Quoting jimsterk
{quote} Maybe language barrier, but i do not exactly understand the proposition 1. {image} Eurusdd or anyone, could you please elaborate on this? thank you. edit: or maybe 1.31000+-0.00010, 1.31010+-0.00010, 1.31020+-0.00010, ... , 1.31100+-0.00010 ?
K is not officially known
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,411
  • Sep 4, 2014 1:38am Sep 4, 2014 1:38am
Quoting vlady1974

  1. Current Bottom shows the next sequence to be a Top after price crossed the Bollinger Mid today.

vlady, could you explain how do you project next sequence from previous one?
  • #7,412
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:51am Sep 4, 2014 2:51am
Quoting jimsterk
{quote} Maybe language barrier, but i do not exactly understand the proposition 1. {image} Eurusdd or anyone, could you please elaborate on this? thank you. edit: or maybe 1.31000+-0.00010, 1.31010+-0.00010, 1.31020+-0.00010, ... , 1.31100+-0.00010 ?
jimsterk,
we are working with discrete stochastic process. If you work with the closing of the bar, then your prices are referred to the closing price.
If X (t) is the closing price of the bar ends at 12:05, then there must be a value "k" optimal, allowing us to calculate "h" and therefore areas transient and recurrent.
  • #7,413
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:28am Sep 4, 2014 3:28am
Quoting feline207
{quote} vlady, could you explain how do you project next sequence from previous one?
In the attachments of the thread I have uploaded a draft of my notes called "The ZigZag Bollinger Band Method 1.0".

Simply put, if price Closes Outside Bollinger Band (COBB) then if it is above the band, the next COBB will be below the band, then reverse, then reverse.
This then gives: Top, Bottom, Top, Bottom

Complexity enters the equation during the process of transitioning from Top to Bottom. This is only ever really confirmed from the middle of the Bollinger Band.
If the close goes over the line in a convincing way then its intention is to go to the opposite end.

-------

The COBB was first highlighted by Eurusdd as a better probability indication of a dissimilarity when comparing the Bollinger of Price to a Bollinger of Stochastic that reflects Price. Almost all of the Dissimilarities occurred at COBB... and that was the idea that allowed me to develop the ZZBB method.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,414
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:40am Sep 4, 2014 3:40am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} In the attachments of the thread I have uploaded a draft of my notes called "The ZigZag Bollinger Band Method 1.0". Simply put, if price Closes Outside Bollinger Band (COBB) then if it is above the band, the next COBB will be below the band, then reverse, then reverse. This then gives: Top, Bottom, Top, Bottom Complexity enters the equation during the process of transitioning from Top to Bottom. This is only ever really confirmed from the middle of the Bollinger Band. If the close goes over the line in a convincing way then its intention...
i will take a look , thanks
  • #7,415
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:03am Sep 4, 2014 6:03am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} I really don't give much weight to candle closes. Just NY closing prices, weekly closes and monthly closes.
Hourly closes are proving their worth at the moment. The 4H closing below 3135 was indicative.
I've shorted at 33.

Edit: I'd like to see 3112 revisited before news.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,416
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:07am Sep 4, 2014 6:07am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hourly closes are proving their worth at the moment. The 4H closing below 3135 was indicative. I've shorted at 33. Edit: I'd like to see 3112 revisited before news.
Wow... volatility back. Err... stopped out at BE.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,417
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:18am Sep 4, 2014 6:18am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hourly closes are proving their worth at the moment. The 4H closing below 3135 was indicative. I've shorted at 33. Edit: I'd like to see 3112 revisited before news.
but 4h are different. mine closed at 1.3145
  • #7,418
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:25am Sep 4, 2014 6:25am
Quoting feline207
{quote} but 4h are different. mine closed at 1.3145
My 8am candle closed at 1.3128

Edit: Why don't you verify if the 11am candle closed at the same price as your 4H? Equally, what was the 15M close from 11:45am?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,419
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:27am Sep 4, 2014 6:27am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Wow... volatility back. Err... stopped out at BE.
Same here. Buys still valid though. stops was just too tight, especially considering high impact news day. Long again. Buys invalidated only if price closes below 3109.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 41 KB
  • #7,420
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:36am Sep 4, 2014 6:36am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} My 8am candle closed at 1.3128 Edit: Why don't you verify if the 11am candle closed at the same price as your 4H? Equally, what was the 15M close from 11:45am?
1.31458 . we have different time zones. so yours 8 am is not mine 8 am and yours 4h is not mine, it depends on broker time. Session times are fixed though. Your 12 am is not my 12 am but your and my NY close/open etc are always the same.
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