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The similarity system

  • #7,421
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:39am Sep 4, 2014 6:39am
My expectation is for a very strong upmove with todays news, targetting levels above 1.3180 . What are yours?
  • #7,422
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:46am Sep 4, 2014 6:46am
Quoting feline207
My expectation is for a very strong upmove with todays news, targetting levels above 1.3180 . What are yours?
well... maybe not today
  • #7,423
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:55am Sep 4, 2014 6:55am
Glad I stayed out.
Short from 3050
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,424
  • Sep 4, 2014 6:57am Sep 4, 2014 6:57am
Shorted from 1.31305 until 1.29xx . Awesome!!!
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #7,425
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:00am Sep 4, 2014 7:00am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Same here. Buys still valid though. stops was just too tight, especially considering high impact news day. Long again. Buys invalidated only if price closes below 3109. {image}
...and that's exactly what stops are for.(and sensible risk/money management!)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,426
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:01am Sep 4, 2014 7:01am
Quoting samaralala
Shorted from 1.31305 until 1.29xx . Awesome!!!
Mate that's awesome! Congrats! 1.3000 here we come!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,427
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:02am Sep 4, 2014 7:02am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} ...and that's exactly what stops are for.(and sensible risk/money management!) {image}
That's exactly it. It's not the wrong or right of a call... it's how to protect capital and jump on that moving train.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,428
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:03am Sep 4, 2014 7:03am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} ...and that's exactly what stops are for.(and sensible risk/money management!) {image}
No entries yet for me...market just showed it's cards. Now the stop hunt(or consolidation), THEN the entry...
  • #7,429
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:07am Sep 4, 2014 7:07am
Quoting vlady1974
Glad I stayed out. Short from 3050
Moved stops to +8, not being greedy.
I may just remove the trades before news. Nothing like a whiplash spike to wipe out profits.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,430
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:12am Sep 4, 2014 7:12am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Moved stops to +8, not being greedy. I may just remove the trades before news. Nothing like a whiplash spike to wipe out profits.
Out. Looking for any kind of retrace to 3076/3077.... but I'm getting lunch and staying away from news.
I'll put it on alert.

In my opinion, sub 1.3000 is where she's going.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,431
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:13am Sep 4, 2014 7:13am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Out. Looking for any kind of retrace to 3076/3077.... but I'm getting lunch and staying away from news. I'll put it on alert. In my opinion, sub 1.3000 is where she's going.
You could be right. I am out.
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #7,432
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:15am Sep 4, 2014 7:15am
Quoting samaralala
{quote} You could be right. I am out.


Lunch!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,433
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:38am Sep 4, 2014 7:38am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} K is not officially known
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} ...and that's exactly what stops are for.(and sensible risk/money management!) {image}
Quoting burnssss
{quote} jimsterk, we are working with discrete stochastic process. If you work with the closing of the bar, then your prices are referred to the closing price. If X (t) is the closing price of the bar ends at 12:05, then there must be a value "k" optimal, allowing us to calculate "h" and therefore areas transient and recurrent.
Thanks Vlady, LiteChild, Burnssss.
So the K is a static value and same for all TF ?
  • #7,434
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:38am Sep 4, 2014 7:38am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} It's certainly worth taking a look at other pairs. Easier money elsewhere no doubt. Just weigh ADR/SPREAD and you should know what else to pay attention to.
...like I said, easier money elsewhere. 198pips and counting!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZDDaily.png Size: 41 KB
  • #7,435
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:42am Sep 4, 2014 7:42am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} In the attachments of the thread I have uploaded a draft of my notes called "The ZigZag Bollinger Band Method 1.0". Simply put, if price Closes Outside Bollinger Band (COBB) then if it is above the band, the next COBB will be below the band, then reverse, then reverse. This then gives: Top, Bottom, Top, Bottom Complexity enters the equation during the process of transitioning from Top to Bottom. This is only ever really confirmed from the middle of the Bollinger Band. If the close goes over the line in a convincing way then its intention...
Thank you Vlady. It becomes more clear now ....
  • #7,436
  • Sep 4, 2014 8:05am Sep 4, 2014 8:05am
Quoting feline207
{quote} well... maybe not today
Here's general questions to you:

How did you come to the conclusion it was going up?
Given what happened to the market, what processes would you change in your analysis?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,437
  • Sep 4, 2014 8:13am Sep 4, 2014 8:13am
Quoting Kapkhunkha
{quote} {quote} {quote} Thanks Vlady, LiteChild, Burnssss. So the K is a static value and same for all TF ?
For me they're both static, and unique(different) for each TF.
  • #7,438
  • Sep 4, 2014 8:19am Sep 4, 2014 8:19am
Historically there have been 6-7 consecutive months of bull candles.
There hasn't been a 7 month consecutive bear, but given where we are on the Monthly tf, it's a possibility I'm beginning to entertain.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,439
  • Sep 4, 2014 8:21am Sep 4, 2014 8:21am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Here's general questions to you: How did you come to the conclusion it was going up? Given what happened to the market, what processes would you change in your analysis?
very appropriate line of questioning. For me, I'm seeing that the analysis is the least part of the process. More important is what to do in every case scenario. Like EURUSDD did while showcasing his 'NO THREE LOSSES IN A ROW' trades and Trade Explorer, I'm seeing the strong argument of using trade reversal strategies at levels marked as 'critical', instead of/or in addition to stop placements.( a form of hedging if you will). Would have worked beautifully on my EU trade today. Will start implementing it and see how it goes. Seems very effective in hindsight though.
  • #7,440
  • Sep 4, 2014 8:33am Sep 4, 2014 8:33am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} very appropriate line of questioning. For me, I'm seeing that the analysis is the least part of the process. More important is what to do in every case scenario. Like EURUSDD did while showcasing his 'NO THREE LOSSES IN A ROW' trades and Trade Explorer, I'm seeing the strong argument of using trade reversal strategies at levels marked as 'critical', instead of/or in addition to stop placements.( a form of hedging if you will). Would have worked beautifully on my EU trade today. Will start implementing it and see how it goes. Seems very effective...
Exactly. My thinking around this is putting in place the mental and mechanical triggers against the reversal strategies.
For instance, I was long but not long biased.... so my timeframe perspective was still Bearish on the Monthly and 4H but I was relying heavily on that 1H close. The flatness of the consolidation mentally made me "want" a bounce rather than trading the obvious break..... which I did.. but late.

The getting in bit, was literally not a trade decision, it was a mental switch decision.....

- No, it's not long anymore. It's short!
* But, are you sure? It might bounce?
- No, it's broken a price, trendline, the alert price you set, etc etc etc. It's short.
* Let's wait for the retrace to a price
- Okay it did that and NOW it's definitely short
* Are you sure?! What if it whiplashes?
- Look it's dropped 50+ pips and counting, it's a short.
* Oh okay then.... short.

That entire mental indecision.... was probably close to 70 pips on that move. LOL
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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