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  • #921,341
  • Sep 3, 2014 8:59pm Sep 3, 2014 8:59pm
Closed my longs. US data is pretty impressive and I don't know why it is staying above 1.3141

On the sidelines for now.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,342
  • Sep 3, 2014 9:21pm Sep 3, 2014 9:21pm
down and target 3120
  • #921,343
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:55pm Sep 3, 2014 10:55pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Thanks!
Yesterday I am not sure about short, I think someone pushing it higher. I always found 1.3184 and 1.3215 while playing with s/d. Someone talking about fibo yesterday, try to draw one and find 1.3163 and 1.3215. I think there is where short should be placed. Btw, fibo stacked in 1.3215 while I try several level to draw.

Ps: I do not trade fibo, but I know how to draw one.
  • #921,344
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:12pm Sep 3, 2014 11:12pm
I plan to short GJ and UJ if opportunity shows, and might load long around 1.64 which is tentative. I think GJ and UJ still left some pips to short, esp. UJ. GJ will be capped by GU if demand shows around 1.6400 on GU. Not holding anything atm, already overshoot weekly target atm. I will thread lightly from today on. I just didn't find a trade worth the risk atm.


Only my personal view, I could be wrong.
  • #921,345
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:24pm Sep 3, 2014 11:24pm
These many years of trading gave me something very special, that is, proof that He exists.

No matter what, which pair, when and how you place a trade, it only takes three seconds after placing a trade that you realize it isn't the right one. This is the biggest proof of His existence. This law never fails.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,346
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:25pm Sep 3, 2014 11:25pm
Quoting Chicky
These many years of trading gave me something very special, that is, proof that He exists. No matter what, which pair, when and how you place a trade, it only takes three seconds after placing a trade that you realize it isn't the right one. This is the biggest proof of His existence. This law never fails.
Hahaha... Well said...
  • #921,347
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:55pm Sep 3, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting snprr
I was short from 1.2176 sl: 1.2265. I took the position Friday morning around 8AM EST. I wanted to trail the stop, but fell asleep because of whacky sleeping patterns that week. Luckily price didnt suddenly reverse on me through my stop again. I moved the s/l to 1.2170, and that was the greatest mistake of my life.

I remained detached from my this very own thread for years, but now I am back. It is a high probality we will see more downside, but it's still kind of iffy as to when for me. Thanks snprr
Thanks for the clarification buddy. Keep on posting again.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,348
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:14am Sep 4, 2014 12:14am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} was why am interested if anyone else can see the potential for a decent dump, not so much swissy appreciation but more usd depreciation, if both happen could be a massive move, which by reading posts, is going to catch a lot of peeps off guard anyway ddoesn'thurt to stay on guard {image}
I see a potential drop of swissy, followed by a bounce again.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #921,349
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:15am Sep 4, 2014 12:15am
Quoting Chicky
Closed my longs. US data is pretty impressive and I don't know why it is staying above 1.3141 On the sidelines for now.
eur/usd not gonna do shit til the ECB announcement on Thursday. I'd have to lay odds Draghi will not say enough re: impending QE to satisfy the masses and that risk assets will slide and eur/usd will catch a bounce. If that's the case, I'd be looking to fade that bounce. They likely made the deal for euro steep drop at Jackson Hole. I am looking for $1.25 or lower by Xmas, e-zone QE or not.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #921,350
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:18am Sep 4, 2014 12:18am
Quoting snprr
I'm back and thank you all for your contributions to my thread. I'm not happy about some of the twists and turns this thread took, though. So the next days I'll will go thru my ignore list to reduce the number of regular posters to about 50. Thanks snprr
Great changes coming!
Fail better.
  • #921,351
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:21am Sep 4, 2014 12:21am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} eur/usd not gonna do shit til the ECB announcement on Thursday. I'd have to lay odds Draghi will not say enough re: impending QE to satisfy the masses and that risk assets will slide and eur/usd will catch a bounce. If that's the case, I'd be looking to fade that bounce. They likely made the deal for euro steep drop at Jackson Hole. I am looking for $1.25 or lower by Xmas, e-zone QE or not.
Most are expecting a 500/600 pip drop to 1.25 and some even to 1.2000. Will it drop to this level, rather, will it be permitted to drop to this level is a one billion dollar question. IMHO, it won't even cross 1.3000 in the near future. If it drops 500/600 pips, will first move that many pips higher.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #921,352
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:32am Sep 4, 2014 12:32am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} eur/usd not gonna do shit til the ECB announcement on Thursday. I'd have to lay odds Draghi will not say enough re: impending QE to satisfy the masses and that risk assets will slide and eur/usd will catch a bounce. If that's the case, I'd be looking to fade that bounce. They likely made the deal for euro steep drop at Jackson Hole. I am looking for $1.25 or lower by Xmas, e-zone QE or not.
1.25 this year? ECB may not welcome same mistake again. I think 1.30 will be decent level for both
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #921,353
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:34am Sep 4, 2014 12:34am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Most are expecting a 500/600 pip drop to 1.25 and some even to 1.2000.
It's easier for them to engineer a euro selloff than doing all the messy political maneuvering to actually get full-blown QE happening. I'm not sure eur/usd <$1.20 would help anything in the e-zone anyway, but at least I could afford to do the cheaper sex tours of Rotterdam then.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #921,354
  • Edited 12:58am Sep 4, 2014 12:35am | Edited 12:58am
USDCAD
Daily picture remains the same despite the sell off. You may want to watch the possibility of Bfly Buy 4 hours chart, where the left wing is already formed, price needs to come down to .618 or .786 Ret 4 Hours chart and that should be the limit.

AUDUSD
I am short, however daily candle too big and created new swing, so I need to see another selling signal on Daily.

GBPUSD
Price still sitting at MS1 + WS3 + bullish pattern (Cypher daily) PA doesn't confirm this yet.

EURUSD
Same update. Today there will be ECB Interest decision and press conf. My bias on this event is on the easing side which will cause this pair to sell and meet weekly target.

USDJPY
Retracement has started as suggested.

S&P
Bouncing from 1.27 Extension weekly chart + WR1, usually this leads to sizable moves.

GOLD
Pattern is working, the only thing I don't like is the fact that PA didn't touch 1.618 in it's last attempt below MS1. That remains our risk.

Copper
Appears to be turning up, .786 daily, reversal swing 4 hours and WS1 just below, a good move upwards should follow if this analysis is correct.

Oil Brent
Very sophisticated technicals indeed! On Monday I said retracement started and PA proceeded all the way down to 1.128 Ext Daily chart (I said here before this is the favorite extension for clearing stops) and then turning all the way up again, I think weekly pattern is still working and that is the context for trading Oil however I am looking and USDCAD at the same time and can't see them both going up.
Control your risk and good trading!!
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  • #921,355
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:39am Sep 4, 2014 12:39am
The pair confirmed a closing above the top of the previous session suggesting we may have a s/t bottom. However to confirm higher levels we need another strong closing possibly above 1,3161, yesterday’s top! The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative and oversold but those of the s/t charts are still in positive territory suggesting further consolidation/ correction with the 200 hours line at 1,3163 the first attraction. Only a break above this line will support higher levels suggesting a return toward the 1,3250 area!! A break below 1,3125 will instead re-launch the decline suggesting a s/t target at 1,3057!!
  • #921,356
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:40am Sep 4, 2014 12:40am
Quoting Chicky
These many years of trading gave me something very special, that is, proof that He exists. No matter what, which pair, when and how you place a trade, it only takes three seconds after placing a trade that you realize it isn't the right one. This is the biggest proof of His existence. This law never fails.

One of the deepest thoughts that I read on FF in recent times.
Yes ... it's true !!! But the problem is to understand if He lives inside of us
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #921,357
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:42am Sep 4, 2014 12:42am
Anybody else noticed the bullish symmetrical triangle wave pattern forming in H1 ?
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #921,358
  • Sep 4, 2014 12:58am Sep 4, 2014 12:58am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Most are expecting a 500/600 pip drop to 1.25 and some even to 1.2000. Will it drop to this level, rather, will it be permitted to drop to this level is a one billion dollar question. IMHO, it won't even cross 1.3000 in the near future. If it drops 500/600 pips, will first move that many pips higher.
3 legs down, 2 legs up.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #921,359
  • Sep 4, 2014 1:00am Sep 4, 2014 1:00am
Nice numbers for the German Factory Orders
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #921,360
  • Sep 4, 2014 1:37am Sep 4, 2014 1:37am
Bull attempt is weak. Usd is not ready to retrace.
No emotions, just trade
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