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Sonic R. System

  • #75,621
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:05am Sep 1, 2014 10:05am
I closed my short positions on the support, because I have lost confidence in the retracement. Besides, it is time to rest, to me.
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Donde hay Patron no manda Marinero
  • #75,622
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:35am Sep 1, 2014 10:35am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} GBPUSD: I think the important thing here is to realize that on the first day of any week it is hardest of all to find best clues as to what the MMs have planned. For example, if price moves up on Monday the MMs might be starting a bull run, but they might whack the price severely down again a day or two later, before the bull run progresses. But also, they might just be resetting prices higher to start re-accumulating shorts for a big bear move later in the week. This has dropped a lot, but so has EU, etc. With any big drop it is...
Thx, Prof TAH and others....
I'll learn n learn more again, btw i have one short position now, may b that is my bad decision to entered the market on this monday. need to be patient until the confirmation is clear
- MJ
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #75,623
  • Edited 11:28am Sep 1, 2014 11:14am | Edited 11:28am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} Thx, Prof TAH and others.... I'll learn n learn more again, btw i have one short position now, may b that is my bad decision to entered the market on this monday. need to be patient until the confirmation is clear - MJ
GBPUSD:

Look at this M1 chart. See the volume following the bear drive down candle. This is very high volume at the bottom of the drive. This is a PVSRA indication in real time that the MMs manipulated the price down the queue to soak up liquidity for trading at those lows. Either that liquidity was due to pending buy orders, in which case the MMs are bears, or the liquidity was due to pending sell orders, in which case the MMs are bulls. Simply put, on the basis of "buy low, sell high" we might presume the MMs are bulls and the liquidity was due to pending sell orders there due to shorters figuring if the price dropped to that level then it might begin to drop further.
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Now look again at M15 and see the SR area which price has today broken up thru and then come back down to and bounced, twice.
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  • #75,624
  • Edited 11:40am Sep 1, 2014 11:28am | Edited 11:40am
I like the quietness of Mondays.

EURUSD, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD

Scalped M1 totalling 64,8 pips

89.9 (first scalps )+ 64.7 = 154.7 pips or 1547 points TODAY.

Forgotten NZDUSD: 195 points.
Total 1742 points or 174.2 pips.
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Donde hay Patron no manda Marinero
  • #75,625
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:40am Sep 1, 2014 11:40am
AUDUSD:

Note that there are several AUD high impact releases coming in the next Asian session....

1. The Frankfurt MMs bought the price up with no sign of closing of longs at the highs. This was their last trading opportunity before the releases. This is bullish.
2. The LO MMs whacked the price back down to the previous consolidation area. This is an area where there is more liquidity for taking on a position.
3. The USO MMs also kept the price in this range, whacking it back down in the range soon after their buying spree caused the price to go high in the range, and then continuing respectable trading in the range - all this on a US bank holiday and the last opportunity to trade before the releases.

I think the best clue comes from the Frankfurt trading, but all of PA today has a bullish look.
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  • #75,626
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:24pm Sep 1, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPUSD: Look at this M1 chart. See the volume following the bear drive down candle. This is very high volume at the bottom of the drive. This is a PVSRA indication in real time that the MMs manipulated the price down the queue to soak up liquidity for trading at those lows. Either that liquidity was due to pending buy orders, in which case the MMs are bears, or the liquidity was due to pending sell orders, in which case the MMs are bulls. Simply put, on the basis of "buy low, sell high" we might presume the MMs are bulls and the liquidity...
The price broken down the SR level. the volume following the bear drive down candle is very high volume, after that followed by up bar with high volume too (blue) but not close on top of the bar.
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #75,627
  • Edited 12:54pm Sep 1, 2014 12:39pm | Edited 12:54pm
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} The price broken down the SR level. the volume following the bear drive down candle is very high volume, after that followed by up bar with high volume too (blue) but not close on top of the bar. {image}
GBPUSD:

What is consistent here is that the trading activity is highest at/near the bottom of each step down. In these after hours the MMs have their computers set to work the price up and down the queue and soak up liquidity at the lows of each new step down. This can only mean they are accumulating long orders by triggering pending short orders or by triggering stops on existing longs.

This does not mean that the price won't continue lower. Tomorrow, when the US MMs are back from the US bank holiday, they might whack the price lower, just for good measure (and to accumulate even more long orders). What this does mean is that the MMs are bulls. They are mostly focused now on accumulating long orders. And therefore it is logical to now be anticipating that there is coming some event at which the MMs plan on initiating a nice bull run.

In the final analysis, we should be trading the Classic setup - either direction - but this qualifies any long setup and puts up the caution flag on any short setup.

IMHO,
-tah
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  • #75,628
  • Edited 1:25pm Sep 1, 2014 1:11pm | Edited 1:25pm
AUDUSD:

M1 shows the MMs, during these after hours, have their computers set to aggressively work the price down the queue to obtain liquidity at lower and lower prices. This is PVSRA indicating the MMs are focused bulls now, ahead of the several AUD high impact releases coming up in the Asian session.

Warning: This does not in any way indicate an end to the drop in price. And we should anticipate the possibility a Whack n' Whip - Stop Hunt of longs - will occur at some time.

We should be trading Classic setups (either direction). All this information does is to put up the green flag on long setups and the yellow caution flag on short setups. And we should be mindful and cautious about entering anything just before major releases, due to the increased chances the Whippin' Whackin' Robber Bank MMs will engage in extreme manipulations of the price. These extreme price manipulations are designed to suck in "wrong side" traders, Stop Hunt "right side" traders, and liquidate the accounts of "right side over-traders" that cannot be stopped out.
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  • #75,629
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:24pm Sep 1, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD: M1 shows the MMs, during these after hours, have their computers set to aggressively work the price down the queue to obtain liquidity at lower and lower prices. This is PVSRA indicating the MMs are focused bulls now, ahead of the several AUD high impact releases coming up in the Asian session. Warning: This does not in any way indicate an end to the drop in price. And we should anticipate the possibility a Whack n' Whip - Stop Hunt of longs - will occur at some time. We should be trading Classic setups (either direction). All this information...
USD JPY H4

MM's doing a good job of keeping USD/JPY up above 104… It looks bearish up here but they may not be done crushing the right side over traders…. Seems we are in distribution 103.70-104.30. Expecting a move back to 103 sometime in the next week or two. Never know though, dirty MM's could jack price up to 105+ and higher for all we little "peasants" know.
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  • #75,630
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:18pm Sep 1, 2014 3:18pm
AUDJPY:

Here is another clue that the MMs are planning to run the Aussie up. Look how, as the time dwindles for the US MMs to finish positioning themselves, they whack the price and trade heaviest at the lows. This is very late in after hours, and the MMs are still manipulating the price to accumulate longs.
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  • #75,631
  • Sep 1, 2014 7:21pm Sep 1, 2014 7:21pm
Can anyone confirm or deny my broker is still showing accurate volume? AUDUSD had been trading Daily volume ranges between 15000 and 40,000, but for the past 2 weeks tick count has been between 2000 and 7000.
If it is accurate it sure would be interesting to learn the reason behind the recent non-interest for this pair.
Thanks..


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  • #75,632
  • Sep 1, 2014 7:37pm Sep 1, 2014 7:37pm
Quoting slimypips
Can anyone confirm or deny my broker is still showing accurate volume? AUDUSD had been trading Daily volume ranges between 15000 and 40,000, but for the past 2 weeks tick count has been between 2000 and 7000. If it is accurate it sure would be interesting to learn the reason behind the recent non-interest for this pair. Thanks.. {image}
slimypips,

These two brokers show no remarkable changes in volume. I doubt most other brokers show any remarkable change in volume. You will want to call and ask your broker to explain what is the reason for this apparent notable decline in their volume. It might be that this is a broker that has recently tinkered with the method they use to produce the volume numbers, much the same way as the broker TradersWay did a couple months back. TradersWay apparently factored their raw volume of ticks by dividing it by some number, thus showing lower levels, but with the apparent same relationships. They said this enabled them to better accommodate the increasing volume of ticks being accounted for across their expanding network of liquidity providers. This sounds reasonable, but until any TF chart advances enough so that only the changed data shows, there will be this place where the volume seems to suddenly drop.
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  • #75,633
  • Edited 9:16pm Sep 1, 2014 7:56pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD: M1 shows the MMs, during these after hours, have their computers set to aggressively work the price down the queue to obtain liquidity at lower and lower prices. This is PVSRA indicating the MMs are focused bulls now, ahead of the several AUD high impact releases coming up in the Asian session. Warning: This does not in any way indicate an end to the drop in price. And we should anticipate the possibility a Whack n' Whip - Stop Hunt of longs - will occur at some time. We should be trading Classic setups (either direction). All this information...
agree with u prof,, have a long Scout placed, dragon still pointing downward, but higher low spotted nicely..AUD news later.. let the market decide..

update: i was wrong, SL hit,, decide to watch further PA no hard feeling once decision made..
feinan
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  • #75,634
  • Edited 8:53pm Sep 1, 2014 8:36pm | Edited 8:53pm
AUDUSD:

This looks like a Stop Hunt on longs, with the Robber Bank MMs whacking price down to a Magic Number.....so far. There are more releases to come.
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These Robber Bank MMs, with a nice TL head fake/Stop Hunt move, might have this down to RDL before the day is over with.....
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  • #75,635
  • Sep 1, 2014 8:50pm Sep 1, 2014 8:50pm
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD: This looks like a Stop Hunt on longs, with the Robber Bank MMs whacking price down to a Magic Number.....so far. There are more releases to come. {image}
looks like loading up something at this level... magic number hits, watching the box...

feinan
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  • #75,636
  • Sep 1, 2014 8:59pm Sep 1, 2014 8:59pm
[quote=traderathome;7710313]{quote} slimypips, These two brokers show no remarkable changes in volume. I doubt most other brokers show any remarkable change in volume. You will want to call and ask your broker to explain what is the reason for this apparent notable decline in their volume. It might be that this is a broker that has recently tinkered with the method they use to produce the volume numbers, much the same way as the broker TradersWay did a couple months back. TradersWay apparently factored their raw volume of ticks by dividing it by some number, thus showing lower levels, but with the apparent same relationships. They said this enabled them to better accommodate the increasing volume of ticks being accounted for across their expanding network of liquidity providers. This sounds reasonable, but until any TF chart advances enough so that only the changed data shows, there will be this place where the volume seems to suddenly drop.

Thanks "T" I should have noticed this back on the 20th, I even posted counter to Sonic when AUDUSD rose nearly 75 pips because I didn't see supporting volume.
For anyone else who is noticing this, this is from Oanda one of the larger "legal" brokers for the US. I've already made contact and after quickly dismissing their claims it was Metaquotes I was told they would consult their coders and get back in a day or two.
  • #75,637
  • Edited 9:45pm Sep 1, 2014 9:25pm | Edited 9:45pm
Quoting slimypips
Quoting traderathome
{quote} slimypips, These two brokers show no remarkable changes in volume. I doubt most other brokers show any remarkable change in volume. You will want to call and ask your broker to explain what is the reason for this apparent notable decline in their volume. It might be that this is a broker that has recently tinkered with the method they use to produce the volume numbers, much the same way as the broker TradersWay did a couple months back. TradersWay apparently factored their raw volume of ticks by dividing it by
...
slimypips,

If it turns out that Oanda is now factoring (by integer division) their raw data of ticks from their liquidity providers so that the "volume" numbers in their MT4 data feed are smaller (more manageable) then everything should be okay. The key here is to know that what they have done via their tinkering with the raw tick data has not prostituted the relationships of the data from one bar to the next. This is the concern to express to them and request an explanation of exactly what method Oanda is using to produce more manageable "volume" numbers. It is difficult to believe they would do anything but a simple factor by division (using a result of 50%, or 30%, etc.) so as to not destroy this relationship. But, if they do not understand the consequences of what they are doing, they might have ended up with a Rube Goldberg method that prostitutes the relationships. In which case, plead your case and show them how much easier and more accurate it would be to simply divide their raw tick data by a constant integer to yield a smaller number and one that preserves relationships. These brokers only see their convenience, and might need their eyes (and their brains) opened if they have prostituted the relationships of the bars in the volume display.

This is the process cigarguy went thru with TradersWay, who listened to him and made another change, and apparently the result is a volume display that remains satisfactory.

-tah
  • #75,638
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:23pm Sep 1, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD: Note that there are several AUD high impact releases coming in the next Asian session.... 1. The Frankfurt MMs bought the price up with no sign of closing of longs at the highs. This was their last trading opportunity before the releases. This is bullish. 2. The LO MMs whacked the price back down to the previous consolidation area. This is an area where there is more liquidity for taking on a position. 3. The USO MMs also kept the price in this range, whacking it back down in the range soon after their buying spree caused the price to go...
...and furthermore..... lowered price under full numbers
  • #75,639
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:48pm Sep 1, 2014 11:48pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPUSD: What is consistent here is that the trading activity is highest at/near the bottom of each step down. In these after hours the MMs have their computers set to work the price up and down the queue and soak up liquidity at the lows of each new step down. This can only mean they are accumulating long orders by triggering pending short orders or by triggering stops on existing longs. This does not mean that the price won't continue lower. Tomorrow, when the US MMs are back from the US bank holiday, they might whack the price lower, just...
Agree with u prof...
Aware with the MMs plan to make a bull run for the London n Newyork season in the next few hour.
Shorts GU closed, now just wait n see till the confirmation of bullisment become clear.
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #75,640
  • Sep 2, 2014 12:01am Sep 2, 2014 12:01am
Quoting KecoaKecil
Hi all sonicers. I would like to share, how my last view of GBPJPY is developing. Last time, i sense a 2nd wave, base on my interpretation of sonic system. For a couple of days forward, i sense a classic entry of third wave. For some time, i refrain myself of posting, because i am not sure if i add some value or not. But now, i convince. Thanks TAH for building this tool. I can say, your tool work perfectly, to aid us trader gain some bearing on MM way of thinking. Do not discourage by hard words from others that can not see the value of your sonic...
Hi all sonicers. For me it looks like the end of bull run for GBPJPY, i presume, MM will switch position confirmed by a massive changing position today. Warning:Speculative, long term. What do you all think of it?
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