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EURUSD

  • #920,861
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:50pm Sep 1, 2014 12:50pm
Quoting JustAndy
This is how Oanda's Technical Analysis sees it: {image}
Why would they recommend stop 3 pips above the lows? Is this for those who need the liquidity to get out?

Or so they can buy your stops into the next drop into 1.312 double bottom?


I t hink it could head 1.3185/1.3222 but obviously the path is clear long term for 1.28 zone
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  • #920,862
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:51pm Sep 1, 2014 12:51pm
It seems EURUSD will touchdown its support @1.3118 and continue its bullish long way up to 1.3195...to form its perfect round bottom (one head) pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2Sept.jpg Size: 126 KB
  • #920,863
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:17pm Sep 1, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting Halimanjaya
It seems EURUSD will touchdown its support @1.3118
Lets see what asians do later...because lately, they do not want to touch only...they want to fool around and more.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #920,864
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:41pm Sep 1, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting JustAndy
This is how Oanda's Technical Analysis sees it: {image}
looks familiar
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #920,865
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:49pm Sep 1, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting egkid
g/u giving good set up zone
For longs from 6566? Or about now?
Fail better.
  • #920,866
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:11pm Sep 1, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting pedro319
"USDJPY Could still reverse down or at least re test Monthly R1 from the upside at 103.55 , we need reversal candle 4 hours chart." USDJPY This pair approaches area of confluence from which retracement should start. This area comprises , weekly R1 at 104.36. + 1.618 Extension 4 Hrs chart at 104.65. You can either close some, scalp down or do nothing, cause target for this trade weekly chart stands around 106.50. I will update later with levels to add up after retracement. As usual look for rejection before joining in any direction. USDCAD I will...
USDCAD
This is a reminder for Wednesday's data release that is expected to impact the market significantly and hints on future rate hikes. Having said that you know by now what levels shouldn't get broken in order for this trade to work, targets are the same, price is actually approaching both weekly and monthly central pivots. Control your risk!
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #920,867
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:13pm Sep 1, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} For longs from 6566? Or about now?
Anything below 6600. But SLs will have to be below the current range, because cable is a beast, once it breaks down, its another 100-150 pips, before it stops.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #920,868
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:27pm Sep 1, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting Halimanjaya
It seems EURUSD will touchdown its support @1.3118 and continue its bullish long way up to 1.3195...to form its perfect round bottom (one head) pattern. {image}
I like that and i think it will be soon . thank you.
  • #920,869
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:57pm Sep 1, 2014 2:57pm
General update

AUDUSD
We have been selling and so we should imo. Stops should be all BE from last short now and there is interest rate decision later on which could accelerate or cancel our trade.

GBPUSD
Since last update PA still holds above 1.27 Extension Daily chart and today struck against Weekly R1 but didn't touch the new Monthly pivot yet (very often PA tends towards new pivots). My plan is scalping short (which I have) and then look for long entry. We again will use same technique as before and most suitable level: 1.6579, it's 61.8 Ret 4 hours + weekly pivot (If you look at whole swing from the bottom to where we are now) or if you take only last swing 4 hours chart this is .786 Ret same tf. We will not always be able to make 100 pips with 1 pip stop but at least we have a plan, we just need to see rejection and step in. If price passes down leave it and wait for another setup. Fundamentals are better than PA might suggest.

EURUSD
Weekly target is 1.3050, I have talked about this level before and so any opportunity to short preferably around the 1.3156 50% Ret last swing 1 hour chart are welcome (if retracements keep small like they have been this should hold price).

Oil Brent
Retracement in progress, PA bounced off Weekly R1 + new monthly pivot + 50% ret very last swing and now heads towards the new weekly central pivot at 102.65 after closing gap. I am still bullish here but now we need to assess strength of this move down and whether 102.65 will resist given that this is located between the 50 and the 61.8 Ret 4 hours chart. Remember we are still trading weekly bullish pattern from 1.27 Extension and last weekly candle close is acceptable from bullish perspective.

Copper
Price slowly going down according to our forecast but somehow I see something might change soon. I need more confirmation to change my bias. Don't forget to take profit.

GOLD
My bias here is short but there are no clear setups to trade this now. (they don't all move at the same time)

Have a great week and any questions drop me a message.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #920,870
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:59pm Sep 1, 2014 2:59pm
The USD traded unchanged or lower against most of its G10 peers during European trading morning.
The "greenback" lost ground against the NOK, GBP, CHF, EUR and NZD, in that order, while in high only against the SEK. However the currency remained stable against the JPY, CAD and AUD.
  • #920,871
  • Edited 5:20pm Sep 1, 2014 3:01pm | Edited 5:20pm
Quoting hathor
2014.09.01. EurUsd H4: Butterfly target reached 161.8% extension (maroon fibo), given the butterfly buy signal. Target is also 161.8% extension (grey fibo). Invalidation point is the lowest low. What do You think? Edit: seems market is respecting the grey fibonacci so far. (attached image: m30) Edit2: while on m15...(attached image: m15) {image} {image} {image}
Oh boy, I was wrong , the butterfly's target is not the A-B leg's extension.
So I would like to correct myself:

A butterfly contains an X,A,B,C,D point.
The rules, which define the structure are:

  1. B point must be at the 0.768 extension (orange) of the X-A leg: COMPLETED
  2. C point must be between the 0.382-0.886 extension (pink) of the A-B leg: COMPLETED
  3. D point must be between the 1.272-2.618 extension (orange) of the X-A leg: ?

  1. Note: The ideal turn is between the 1.272-1.618 extension of the X-A leg!

This means D point must be between ~1.3040-1.31340 (~100pips!), but the ideal level is between 1.31100-1.31340.

! Invalidation: < ~1.30400 !

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.09.01. EurUsd ABCD H1 final.png Size: 23 KB
Attached Image
f(z)=z2+c
  • #920,872
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:18pm Sep 1, 2014 3:18pm
Germany going strong:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GW2BV20140901
  • #920,873
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:34pm Sep 1, 2014 3:34pm
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) got 9,6% of the votes and secures it's place in the German Parliament.

FYI-these guys hate everything Euro related
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #920,874
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:37pm Sep 1, 2014 3:37pm
OMG a 3 pip range H4 candle!!!
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  • #920,875
  • Sep 1, 2014 4:14pm Sep 1, 2014 4:14pm
For the next 24 Hours

3 . Resistance 1.3166
2 . Resistance 1.3157
1 . Resistance 1.3142


1 . Support 1.3115
2 . Support 1.3107
3 . Support 1.3084

Opinion....
  • #920,876
  • Sep 1, 2014 4:22pm Sep 1, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting Thebullone
For the next 24 Hours 3 . Resistance 1.3166 2 . Resistance 1.3157 1 . Resistance 1.3142 1 . Support 1.3115 2 . Support 1.3107 3 . Support 1.3084 Opinion....
For me 3155-65, perfect short entry for the break of 3118. But asians tend to break first and reverse after, lately, so they might to the opposite again. The only support I see is 3118 and then 3104, which when breaks, 3080 should be minimum target.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #920,877
  • Sep 1, 2014 4:50pm Sep 1, 2014 4:50pm
Last check for tonight.. Shitty action today, so.. first check at bottom should be here tomorrow, and therefor i belive we now see the bottom for asia session, and she will now build a bearish wedge on 1H with a high maybe at 3148 and then go down to 3130 ish and break out of the wedge when london wakes, and down to 3102, and just for the fun of it and throw everybody off slam dunk 3083, and be back at 3130 before anybody knew what hit them.. Sounds like a fun and stupid plan right now, but be sure i will quote myself to higher spam level if it turns out like that. God night..
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  • #920,878
  • Sep 1, 2014 4:51pm Sep 1, 2014 4:51pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
Last check for tonight.. Shitty action today, so.. first check at bottom should be here tomorrow, and therefor i belive we now see the bottom for asia session, and she will now build a bearish wedge on 1H with a high maybe at 3148 and then go down to 3130 ish and break out of the wedge when london wakes, and down to 3102, and just for the fun of it and throw everybody off slam dunk 3083, and be back at 3130 before anybody knew what hit them.. Sounds like a fun and stupid plan right now, but be sure i will quote myself to higher spam level if...
Exactly my plan. I plan to long 3080, too, but not sure it spikes up so fast.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #920,879
  • Sep 1, 2014 5:00pm Sep 1, 2014 5:00pm
people like to pick bottoms, next down leg will hurt alot of people...
  • #920,880
  • Sep 1, 2014 5:03pm Sep 1, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting triplecrown
people like to pick bottoms, next down leg will hurt alot of people...
Every down leg hurts a lot of people...retail is still long, probably since 1.34-35.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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