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  • #920,621
  • Aug 30, 2014 4:31am Aug 30, 2014 4:31am
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} SHit happens.. i should have waited, but i had to leave and did not dare to hold on. Could have gotten 85, i see that now, but i also lucky i just killed it as I see we ended at 3131 the low of the week. My short got hit at 3149 and should be good to your 3102/4. After that i'm a but clueless at the moment, i had expected this to end at highs and turn north next week, but also understood if 3150 is taken out, the picture changes, as after 4 days of pounding the lows, i would most likely not just settle for a test of 3140 or even 3130. So...
  • #920,622
  • Edited 6:26am Aug 30, 2014 5:59am | Edited 6:26am
Building on my view. The channel we are in, and guessing we are trying to get out of it, is also indicating that a expected bounce at the 3100 area is highly expected. But the beginning off the channel is showing how it could react also.. notice the gap when it started to fall? That cluster before could become cluster in the lower part of the channel now, hinting we could break straight through and catch price at the 2800 ish level before ending at 2600 and build the cluster. Well i hope we are not that bearish as we have had a substansial move already, so for now i will stick with a bounce. The line right now is actually at 3080 ish if zooming in on daily. So a small overshoot at 3100 should be expected.. trigger some stops on new longs etc.. BUT if we stay with the channel, a bounce could target 3550 area..it don't have to but have been a norm.. decide for your self. Monday i guess the 3100 level will be quite important. Looking back at monthly candles ending at their absolute lows, there is not many... found some 6 candidates, 4 of them had an average at some 325 pips in opposite direction and two had nothing more than 50 pips.. so if real bearish, 3180 could be the high of september, if not then 3400 as mentioned in earlier posts could be real, or even more.

More observations, the stoch 522 weekly, the last time it was pinned to the floor for longer than this was 1997... So this is not our everyday bear either if we continue down..
Also, we are the bottom of our fat demandzone, and large stops are more than likely placed just below, so the 3080-3105 zone is very important. A trip of stops and fakeout is very likely if real bearish.

EDIT2: After checking the lines in Jforex, I get the same value on all timeframes, 1.3097
weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDailych.png Size: 83 KB


EDIT: This is where Metatrader suck so much it just sucks... when changing timeframes the trendlines get different values... not okay, will have to check the exact levels on some other software..
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #920,623
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:28am Aug 30, 2014 6:28am
ok too generous with retrace


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post7694298


Quoting Bones
so what your saying is w1 =bearish monthly = bearish but you see even 1.3700 ? but what I'm saying is that is not likely even if you then zoom in to d1 , but as always anythings possible , {quote} {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur USD d1 30 (DFB).png Size: 39 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #920,624
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:29am Aug 30, 2014 6:29am
right o

Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} Great don't.. I guess you're the one that is right even when you are wrong. Keep shorting as you will be right eventually. But who decides what is misconceptions and what is not? Another self-declared king of FF with too much ego.. cant even take a discussion on views. Jesus.. does FF make you people become like this..
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #920,625
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:34am Aug 30, 2014 6:34am
upper tl correct


Quoting NoCoolNick
Building on my view. The channel we are in, and guessing we are trying to get out of it, is also indicating that a expected bounce at the 3y likely if real bearish. EDIT2: After checking the lines in Jforex, I get the same value on all timeframes, 1.3097 weekly {image} daily {image} EDIT: This is where Metatrader suck so much it just sucks... when changing timeframes the trendlines get different values... not okay, will have to check the exact levels on some other software..
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #920,626
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:37am Aug 30, 2014 6:37am
no moon or sun alignment is required to know retrace is later

Quoting Bones
wow complex keep it simple chart is bearish {quote} {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur USD monthly (DFB).png Size: 27 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #920,627
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:47am Aug 30, 2014 6:47am
Quoting Bones
ok too generous with retrace http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post7694298 {quote} {image}
You think no stop at 1.3100 for a small bounce? I see the 1.3016-30 as fib level and we will get there, no doubt.. 1.3100 do have some credit too also as last september low, even though previous lows have not worked that well on this trip down, but 3100 is also the channel trendline that have been respected many times before.. I don't mind 3000 level first, but would not like too look at 3400 in a couple of weeks knowing i had it nailed but didn't take it because i wanted 3000!
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #920,628
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:55am Aug 30, 2014 6:55am
Quoting Bones
right o {quote}
Yup, i hate when people apear as they are all the great gods, and their view is uncontested. I guess you would not enjoy an answer like that to your analysis? I don't, i'm here to get different views on things and share my own.. So i got dissapointed with your answer! Looking back, my view was valid, and got kicked in the nuts on the gap open down.. I got it wrong as i have before and will get it wrong more times in the future else i would be rich as fook. Pretty sure u get it wrong also... so..you won i lost!? But i tried to have an open discussion on the view... I don't doubt that you are experienced trader and make many good calls, but always right? But thanks for your reply
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #920,629
  • Aug 30, 2014 7:05am Aug 30, 2014 7:05am
Quoting Bones
upper tl correct {quote}
Yes, but the others should be correct as they have respect all the way back to 1985, as the upper one also has...

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I don't even have a cool signature
  • #920,630
  • Aug 30, 2014 7:29am Aug 30, 2014 7:29am
I don't think I'm god and defiantly get it wrong thats your interpretation when I could see your type ,I decided I wouldn't engage ,
this is how you react


Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} Yup, i hate when people apear as they are all the great gods, and their view is uncontested. I guess you would not enjoy an answer like that to your analysis? I don't, i'm here to get different views on things and share my own.. So i got dissapointed with your answer! Looking back, my view was valid, and got kicked in the nuts on the gap open down.. I got it wrong as i have before and will get it wrong more times in the future else i would be rich as fook. Pretty sure u get it wrong also... so..you won i lost!? But i tried to have an open...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #920,631
  • Aug 30, 2014 7:31am Aug 30, 2014 7:31am
this doji has failed ,this chart is mega bearish ,


Quoting Bones
chart is bearish {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur CAD monthly 30 (DFB).png Size: 21 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #920,632
  • Aug 30, 2014 7:35am Aug 30, 2014 7:35am
I doubt that we get there in one stroke but I think 1.2939 will have some importance more sooner than later.
  • #920,633
  • Aug 30, 2014 7:49am Aug 30, 2014 7:49am
Forgot the yealy pivots, and the support is down there.. hate the numbers if they attract. Bounce to Pivotpoint?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeeklyYsup.png Size: 40 KB
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #920,634
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:00am Aug 30, 2014 8:00am
Quoting Bones
I don't think I'm god and defiantly get it wrong thats your interpretation when I could see your type ,I decided I wouldn't engage , this is how you react {quote}
I must be dumb... or you are.. don't know, feels like something went wrong after i wrote a simple contra analysis to yours. It was not patronising or meant bad in any way, i just feelt i had another view and i presented it for a discussion. In hindsight it did not play out as i had viewed, i failed. But your response to a valid discussion was patronising as I feelt it. If it was not meant so, then i guess we can blame it on languagebarrier... But i can assure you i'm not the type you think I am..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post7694026

Also, after looking at many of your charts, it's clear you are very based on long term goals/charts, and Im more swing. You might only see 3000 but in between that i also se a small bounce.. Anyway sorry for getting it wrong..
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #920,635
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:04am Aug 30, 2014 8:04am
Quoting CandleStar
I doubt that we get there in one stroke but I think 1.2939 will have some importance more sooner than later.
Thanks, throw in another level in the mix I don't want to look beyong 3000 right now. When going through the charts i noticed we were nearing Yearly sup 1 also.. could it be a magnet or just a level. The pivot didn't look like it had much effect, so i guess it will just be a level.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #920,636
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:14am Aug 30, 2014 8:14am
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} Thanks, throw in another level in the mix I don't want to look beyong 3000 right now. When going through the charts i noticed we were nearing Yearly sup 1 also.. could it be a magnet or just a level. The pivot S1 didn't look like it had much effect, so i guess it will just be a level.
That is not just a pivot S1, that is 50% ret weekly chart and oversold, PA reacted (twice) to the yearly central pivot by bouncing from 1.35 up before the big fall. We never know when this is going to bounce or reverse, we can only try to anticipate the levels from which that might happen and that is one of them.
I could come here and post stuff I posted 6 months ago saying I was short!! In reality all of us know this is going down the question is where to get the stops for the best R:R and where to close positions.
Thanks for your inquisitive mind.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #920,637
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:50am Aug 30, 2014 8:50am
ok wrong foot for both of us , I'm posting high tf but I'm not trading them directly ,


Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} I must be dumb... or you are.. don't know, feels like something went wrong after i wrote a simple contra analysis to yours. It was not patronising or meant bad in any way, i just feelt i had another view and i presented it for a discussion. In hindsight it did not play out as i had viewed, i failed. But your response to a valid discussion was patronising as I feelt it. If it was not meant so, then i guess we can blame it on languagebarrier... But i can assure you i'm not the type you think I am.. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post7694026...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #920,638
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:53am Aug 30, 2014 8:53am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} That is not just a pivot S1, that is 50% ret weekly chart and oversold, PA reacted (twice) to the yearly central pivot by bouncing from 1.35 up before the big fall. We never know when this is going to bounce or reverse, we can only try to anticipate the levels from which that might happen and that is one of them. I could come here and post stuff I posted 6 months ago saying I was short!! In reality all of us know this is going down the question is where to get the stops for the best R:R and where to close positions....
Exactly...

I know we are going deep, and for the most part it do not go in a straight line down. And before someone comes and say "it could move like 1500 pips in 2010 without skipping a beat.. why not now", i can also say true range and volatility was like 3 times as high as it is today, so with todays standard we have actually had a nasty drop much like the one in jan 2013 to march 2013 for 8 weeks. That one made some 1000 pips and the bounced 500 after. I think we are on a more slow descent as we have had 16 weeks now, and already had one minor retracement, so another around here should be valid and again at least some 300 pip bounce. I presented earlier a scenario where we would have a 3 wave down to 3000 and then larger retracement. And that would slow it down a bit. Even read that Goldman had a estimate of 1.2900 in 3 months 1.2500 in six months etc.. so not even banks sees this one straight down without reactions. Next week will most likely give some answers. I'm not longing anymore untill we hit the 3100 area, everything above next week will be shorted unless we suddenly see numbers above 3220.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #920,639
  • Edited 1:11pm Aug 30, 2014 12:49pm | Edited 1:11pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #920,640
  • Aug 30, 2014 1:13pm Aug 30, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Hey buddy, I am sad when you are not around. I was thinking about you this morning. Trying to figure out if method suggested by one of your friends is the second best in the world. I am referring to your friend who wrote that book "Trading in the Lion's Country"
Hey my friend, I hope and trust to be around more in the near future.
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