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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #2,361
  • Aug 27, 2014 5:06am Aug 27, 2014 5:06am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Its all a fine balance my friend. I sleep 12 hours on weekend. EAs are both a grid martingale system that uses veryyy low leverage with high balance so I will always have nice consistent gains that give me a good paycheck every month
Ok, 12 hours are 25% of my weekend time.....so I`ll stay with my rhythm.....

EAs sounds good....but then there are several trades open (which max trades do you allow?) in wrong direction, what do you or the EA do?
Do you intervene manually? Hedge-Trades or averaging after trend-change? There is your max loss barrier? Measured by pips or % of equity/account? Are they free or paid EAs?
You haven`t to answer if you don`t want....
Have a nice day
  • #2,362
  • Aug 27, 2014 5:13am Aug 27, 2014 5:13am
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Ok, 12 hours are 25% of my weekend time.....so I`ll stay with my rhythm..... EAs sounds good....but then there are several trades open (which max trades do you allow?) in wrong direction, what do you or the EA do? Do you intervene manually? Hedge-Trades or averaging after trend-change? There is your max loss barrier? Measured by pips or % of equity/account? Are they free or paid EAs? You haven`t to answer if you don`t want....
Im sure you can find a good EA on fxbook there are lots to choose from!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #2,363
  • Aug 27, 2014 5:24am Aug 27, 2014 5:24am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Im sure you can find a good EA on fxbook there are lots to choose from!
Have a nice day
  • #2,364
  • Aug 27, 2014 5:51pm Aug 27, 2014 5:51pm
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Ah, ok .....if getting less than 6-6,5 hours for more than 3 days in a row I`ll be intolerably and grumpy.... Would you like to tell more about your EA? Only closing trades in profit? Using grids? Thanks and have a nice trading day
A lot of days I get less than that. I am generally waiting for positions to add and then to modify the TP if that occurs.

I always promise myself at the New York close that I'm "just going to hop on for a few minutes ... ."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,365
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:10pm Aug 27, 2014 9:10pm
Insomniacs do have that advantage. I have to get up and pee four, five times a night. Silver lining.Maybe that is why EAs don't appeal to me.
  • #2,366
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:21pm Aug 27, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
Insomniacs do have that advantage. I have to get up and pee four, five times a night. Silver lining.Maybe that is why EAs don't appeal to me.
Your sugar level is not right. Get some Gymnema dry leaves from a herbal store, boil few leaves like green tea and drink it twice a day. Your sugar level will be perfect in 2 days.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #2,367
  • Aug 28, 2014 3:25am Aug 28, 2014 3:25am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} A lot of days I get less than that. I am generally waiting for positions to add and then to modify the TP if that occurs. I always promise myself at the New York close that I'm "just going to hop on for a few minutes ... ."
Ok,.....

Quote
Insomniacs do have that advantage. I have to get up and pee four, five times a night. Silver lining.Maybe that is why EAs don't appeal to me.

....me too 2-3 times...and no urologist can help...
Have a nice day
  • #2,368
  • Edited 6:14pm Aug 28, 2014 9:44am | Edited 6:14pm
What I did this week:
%change in equity:+65%/annum
%change in balance:+94%/annum
%change in P/L(11%)
Margin Level %: 599.01
no of weeks since last taking a loss:3
no of trades open:13, 0 pending
noted that Wednesday, a normally busy day, was busy again even with relative paucity of news events. - Are news events a cause, or simply a symptom of volatility?
  • #2,369
  • Aug 28, 2014 7:31pm Aug 28, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
What I did this week: %change in equity:+65%/annum %change in balance:+94%/annum %change in P/L(11%) Margin Level %: 599.01 no of weeks since last taking a loss:3 no of trades open:13, 0 pending noted that Wednesday, a normally busy day, was busy again even with relative paucity of news events. - Are news events a cause, or simply a symptom of volatility?
Awesome possum ... .

Guess I am kind of easing out of positions if possible heading into the Labor Day holiday. Always seems that things can get kind of hairy on the Tuesday following a major Monday holiday ... which can be good ... or bad ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,370
  • Aug 29, 2014 12:12am Aug 29, 2014 12:12am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Awesome possum ... . Guess I am kind of easing out of positions if possible heading into the Labor Day holiday. Always seems that things can get kind of hairy on the Tuesday following a major Monday holiday ... which can be good ... or bad ... .
I close all pending trades every Friday at one pm and anything in profit, not to be renewed. MT-4 plays funny games with pending trades on the weekend. I look to go into Tuesdays as lean and mean as possible. 2d of September, the banks will be back with a vengeance, looking to make up the money they missed on Labor Day.
  • #2,371
  • Aug 29, 2014 4:36am Aug 29, 2014 4:36am
Rap, Bob and Bilstein

Thank you for all your contribution here in this thread.
Really much appreciated!!!

I have a quick question regarding using this approach and how you deal with each pair's volatility/position sizing.
For example, looking at today's 20-Day ATR for EUR/USD (55pips) and GBP/NZD (122 pips), how do you ensure that each pair has the same "weight" within your "inventory"?

Would you take this info into consideration to define how many lots of each pair you are carrying?

Thanks in advance for your reply!

TF1
  • #2,372
  • Edited 10:24am Aug 29, 2014 5:57am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting trader-f1
Rap, Bob and Bilstein Thank you for all your contribution here in this thread. Really much appreciated!!! I have a quick question regarding using this approach and how you deal with each pair's volatility/position sizing. For example, looking at today's 20-Day ATR for EUR/USD (55pips) and GBP/NZD (122 pips), how do you ensure that each pair has the same "weight" within your "inventory"? Would you take this info into consideration to define how many lots of each pair you are carrying? Thanks in advance for your reply! TF1
As for me I don't. Too complicated. I take advantage of breakouts, and I have seen staid and stable, low ATR turn wild and wooly in an instant.

For instance the relatively staid USDCAD pair, with its plunge the last few days, doubling it's recent ATR is a piker compared to the one a few weeks ago where the plange outstripped Ibfx's ability to keep up, so that it gave me back much more than the tp I had set for it. Twice. (I am in the habit of setting more than one pender on a pair that is coming up in the news, as the USACAD is today. Cascading penders on all pairs involving the CAD until 1pm. My lot size is determined by my equity. I prefer to increase the number of trades of a fixed size than to increase lot size. increasing lot size only when equity increases by quantum leaps.

Smaller lot size , distributed over may pairs, which correlations reducing risk. Honor the swaps an this occurs automatically. Yes I pass up trades against the swap, but have found other pairs in motion enough to keep my margin comfortably full.

11:30 gleaned some 30 pips from pairs with CAD. Quiet day, fridays usually are.

AN ATR of 55 pips is great if your tp is set at 20

When it hits, you can be influenced by ATR if you wish. I like a parabolic move enough to ignore such things.
  • #2,373
  • Aug 29, 2014 5:42pm Aug 29, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} As for me I don't. Too complicated. I take advantage of breakouts, and I have seen staid and stable, low ATR turn wild and wooly in an instant. For instance the relatively staid USDCAD pair, with its plunge the last few days, doubling it's recent ATR is a piker compared to the one a few weeks ago where the plange outstripped Ibfx's ability to keep up, so that it gave me back much more than the tp I had set for it. Twice. (I am in the habit of setting more than one pender on a pair that is coming up in the news, as the USACAD is today. Cascading...
I agree with the notion of not attempting to weight a pair in light of its ATR, volatility, and such. The less thinking I have to do, the better.

... and there's nothing like slippage that goes in your favor ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,374
  • Aug 29, 2014 5:52pm Aug 29, 2014 5:52pm
I continue to not use stop losses ... .

Here are my week's results, which mainly derive from pivot point-based entries:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Week's Results.jpg Size: 154 KB


And my month's, which derive from pivot point-based entries, directional grids, and (just a few trades at the end of the month) ZigZag entries:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Month's Results.jpg Size: 145 KB


I started out the month with a balance of $7099.29, withdrawing $1412.44 mid-month to bring the account down to $6000 even. Even assuming that I had kept the entire 7k plus in the account, I earned a total of $649.46, resulting in an ROI of $649.46/$7099.29 or .0915 (9.15%) with per leg lot sizes that I ran at .5 times equity through the middle of the month, 1 times equity mid-month through the 25th or so, and then with .5 times equity for the few ZigZag trades I finished up this week with.

Although I think a 9.15 % ROI is more than satisfactory for my purposes, that number could be improved modestly upwards if I consistently use lot sizes that are larger than .5 times equity and up to 1 x equity, as I long as I don't go overboard with my maximum exposure, which I think can be achieved through limiting the number of pairs in which I have open trades and keeping the amount of usable maintenance margin at or above 80%. I don't think I've really thoroughly tested my tolerance for an exposure that involves legs of 1x equity (I only did that for a couple weeks, really), and I may continue to attempt to do that as I test entries and exits using ZigZags throughout the month of September.

I want to continue testing out different things until the end of the year before settling on a strategy I like and can be successful at (and by successful, I mean, 5-10% ROI per month), at which time I will devote more substantial capital to this type of trading. I naturally don't want to do that if I am unsuccessful (like I was January through the end of June doing things the "old school" way) or inconsistently successful, and, frankly, eight weeks of success is not enough to go "all in" ... yet.

I would also note that this marks the eighth consecutive profitable week in a row, and the eighth week in a row during which I have been able to close out all positions (initial entries + additional legs) in net positive territory for the entire position -- all without setting a single stop loss.

For some reason, this month (in terms of pure pippage gained) was far better than last. In July, I made 81 total trades for 1007.5 pips; this month 204 trades for 2525.5 pips. Without digging into all the trades, my sense is that this month saw a little bit more dramatic movement in certain pairs than last and the directional grid trades I had set up as an experiment took major advantage of that. That being said, those are not particularly consistent results; they are both positive results, but this month's pippage is two times larger than July's, leading me to believe that it will not always be possible to get a 9% + ROI each and every month. I guess time will tell ... . The average pippage for July and August is 1766.5 pips per month ... . Again, not really statistically significant given the fact that it only involves two months' worth of trades, but, hey, I'm way more happier doing things this way than trying to go for those 2-1 risk/reward set-up's all the brokers websites advocate.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,375
  • Aug 29, 2014 6:06pm Aug 29, 2014 6:06pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I continue to not use stop losses ... . Here are my week's results, which mainly derive from pivot point-based entries: {image} And my month's, which derive from pivot point-based entries, directional grids, and (just a few trades at the end of the month) ZigZag entries: {image} I started out the month with a balance of $7099.29, withdrawing $1412.44 mid-month to bring the account down to $6000 even. Even assuming that I had kept the entire 7k plus in the account, I earned a total of $649.46, resulting in an ROI of $649.46/$7099.29 or .0915 (9.15%)...
Zebra,Keep on keeping on man Managing your trades via money management as you have just provided is key. I'm in the same boat as you....no stop losses.
  • #2,376
  • Aug 29, 2014 6:11pm Aug 29, 2014 6:11pm
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Hi ZebraSquirl and all, please allow a newbie to ask: If trading with a micro-lot account (0,01 lot=1000 units) one pip in price means about 0,10 Euro($ similar). Than an Equity of 500 Euro (Dollar) x 10= 5000 units. If I understood right your rule of thump its only allowed/save to trade maximum 5x0,01 lot? So if price moves against my 5 positions opened with 0,01 lot (or 1 position opened with 0,05 lot) than 100 pips against my account=-50,-€/$= 10% of equity. This is what you want to say by this? Thanks a lot to you all for this established...
Well, here, let me give you an example.

Say you have deposited $10,000 (10k) in your account (that is your equity), and you're trading with a microaccount (which allows you to trade in 1K increments, which equal to .01 standard lot).

In that case, 1 x equity is 10K or 10 microlots, and the maximum I would want to generally commit to a trade in a particular pair would be 5 x equity or 5 x 10k or 50k worth of exposure for the position.

The amount of margin available to you is a total different animal. For example, if your broker allows you to margin up to 50 times your equity and you have $10,000 in your account, you can open positions up to 50 x $10,000 or $500,000 (500k) worth of positions. If you are looking at that number on which to base your exposure rule of thumb (and your broker allows you to trade on margin up to 50:1), you would not want to expose more than 2% of your total available margin on any one open position/trade.

The reason I don't refer to exposure in terms of margin is because some people have different margin rules 50:1, 100:1, 500:1.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,377
  • Aug 29, 2014 6:13pm Aug 29, 2014 6:13pm
Quoting Benevolent
{quote} Zebra,Keep on keeping on man Managing your trades via money management as you have just provided is key. I'm in the same boat as you....no stop losses.
Thanks man ... . Added benefit of no stop losses: one less thing for this addled mind to have to think about ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,378
  • Aug 29, 2014 7:33pm Aug 29, 2014 7:33pm
Quoting trader-f1
Rap, Bob and Bilstein Thank you for all your contribution here in this thread. Really much appreciated!!! I have a quick question regarding using this approach and how you deal with each pair's volatility/position sizing. For example, looking at today's 20-Day ATR for EUR/USD (55pips) and GBP/NZD (122 pips), how do you ensure that each pair has the same "weight" within your "inventory"? Would you take this info into consideration to define how many lots of each pair you are carrying? Thanks in advance for your reply! TF1

I will be happy to answer this question but I am going to be very busy this weekend. So I will give you some advice on this. GBP/NZD is the most volatile pair among the majors and trade it often. So until I have the time..........
  • #2,379
  • Aug 30, 2014 1:27am Aug 30, 2014 1:27am
Many thanks Rap and Zebra for your replies!
Looking forward to your views on this one as well, Bob.
Have a nice weekend, all!
  • #2,380
  • Aug 30, 2014 3:20am Aug 30, 2014 3:20am
I found some free time here so uploaded my volatility spread sheet.

I use this chart to determine what pairs I will trade on a regular basis. It is the average pips per day a currency moves over the last year. This way I dont waste my time trying to trade pairs that simply dont move. For example the eur/chf move 29.3 pips a day. To me that is not worth waiting 24 hours, a move of 30 pips. I havent tried trading the eur/chf in years. Same thing with the eur/gbp at 42 a day. I concentrate on currencies that will move and make my trading time worth the effort. Most of my trades take place with the top 13 currency pairs. The top 7 move over a 100 pips average a day so I can look for 40-80 pips profit in a day. I can expect these kind of moves and adjust my thinking on what kind of profit I can reasonably get on a pair. By the time a pair moves and finishes I can expect getting 30-50% of the days move. That will usually happen in the eur or usd session.

The second group if I can get 25-50 pips I have done well for the day. The third group 20-40 pips. The rest just arent worth my time. Sometimes a news spike will let you get more but that is rare for this year. You will see from the chart the usd is not very volatile this year but the gbp and eur draw the most action. That is probably because they are traded around the clock with moves both in the eur and usd sessions. The usd/cad for example only trades well during the usa session. That is because the usa session is the only time usa and Canadian banks are open. So I dont even bother to look at it during jpy or euro sessions, just simple not enough movement to bother with. If I want to trade the JPY session I will look at cross pairs that have the jpy,nzd, and aud in them. Why? that is when the banks in those countries are open and they are conducting business. Euro session look at the eur, chf, gbp crosses, their banks are open.

The first 3 hours of the USA session is usually the wildest because both euro and usa banks are open and its trading time worldwide. If and when China ever allows open trading of the RMB then the Asia session would see more volatility. So study your charts and look at what time a currency will move and then prepare to trade it at those times.

Attached is a summary of volatility by day for each major currency pair. You can mix and match to your tastes. I remember when the gbp/nzd used to move almost 300 a day back in 2008. Now those were the days that were not for the faint hearted.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf CURRENCY VOLATILITY DAILY July 2014.pdf   176 KB | 1,406 downloads
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