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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,821
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:38pm Aug 27, 2014 9:38pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Share your thoughts please- I enjoy your EU analysis, never see you in these threads. Are you lost?
lost a lot one or two years ago trading UJ (got caught by the JPY QE). Since then never touch Yen pairs again.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #47,822
  • Aug 27, 2014 10:09pm Aug 27, 2014 10:09pm
surprised god and country haven't called the H&S... pretty clear on the 4H timeframe. I typically don't buy into this particular technical formation, but she does look like she wants to roll over.

either way, poor liquidity in the markets have driven me to rechecking my positions after 1 to 2 dozen pips in the black. Yeah, I've missed some recent runs, but something tells me holding on to a position into the end of this week is asking for a whip saw, ass slapping worthy of a submissive. If I do hold the fall, I'll be targeting to get out at 103.5'ish.

good luck to yall... been a lifetime since I've posted on here.

.......by the way the EA in my template is simply for charts and indicators I've picked up along the way from a savvy trader gracious enough to share on this site... I validate with a standard ichimoku cloud (4H timeframe)
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  • #47,823
  • Aug 28, 2014 8:35am Aug 28, 2014 8:35am
sell
  • #47,824
  • Aug 28, 2014 9:04am Aug 28, 2014 9:04am
Bulls made a run at first news- only to be eaten up by bears, phenomenal housing news for US and bulls are nowhere to be found.

Could it be that people are finally catching on that the news out of US is cooked?
  • #47,825
  • Aug 28, 2014 9:04am Aug 28, 2014 9:04am
Who broke the USD ?

Good data but USD not moving....Ukraine concerns ?
  • #47,826
  • Aug 28, 2014 9:52am Aug 28, 2014 9:52am
HI guys..
I've sell UJ at 104.22 last monday...is it posible UJ reach 103.50?
  • #47,827
  • Aug 28, 2014 11:36am Aug 28, 2014 11:36am
Quoting Pharm0r
Bulls made a run at first news- only to be eaten up by bears, phenomenal housing news for US and bulls are nowhere to be found. Could it be that people are finally catching on that the news out of US is cooked?
GDP was already priced in. Too soon to say one way or another which way this is going; it is still very much range bound. Need sustained trading above 2013/2014 high 105.30 to confirm continued uptrend. Otherwise, until it stays under 101.00, I would not be very confident in selling. My long term bias is bearish, but I don't think we've hit a top just quite yet.
  • #47,828
  • Aug 28, 2014 12:32pm Aug 28, 2014 12:32pm
buyers might be waiting at 103.5 ... either way, the pair is acting strangely, twice this week no movement with news, as well as overwhelming bear pressure with just a nudge back up ...... bulls have lost their derek rose lol
  • #47,829
  • Aug 28, 2014 1:23pm Aug 28, 2014 1:23pm
Let's face the reality.
No one knows which direction it will continue.

However, one thing to remind you is that,
there were some, I meant to say 'a lot' trained day-traders writing in this forem "sell" before this pair was crossing strongly 103.00 and 104.00 finally.

Some are gone because their money are gone all out of their pocket,
but few still telling people to 'sell' at 103.70 in this forum.
I just wish that those people would actually supporting reasons, instead to tell people only 'sell' .
  • #47,830
  • Aug 28, 2014 1:35pm Aug 28, 2014 1:35pm
https://www.tradingcentral.com/chart...0828182651.GIF
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #47,831
  • Aug 28, 2014 1:36pm Aug 28, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting wellforex
Let's face the reality. No one knows which direction it will continue. However, one thing to remind you is that, there were some, I meant to say 'a lot' trained day-traders writing in this forem "sell" before this pair was crossing strongly 103.00 and 104.00 finally. Some are gone because their money are gone all out of their pocket, but few still telling people to 'sell' at 103.70 in this forum. I just wish that those people would actually supporting reasons, instead to tell people only 'sell' .
every single post of mine for the last eight days...starting with this at 103.30

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post7686454
  • #47,832
  • Aug 28, 2014 1:43pm Aug 28, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting wellforex
Let's face the reality. No one knows which direction it will continue. However, one thing to remind you is that, there were some, I meant to say 'a lot' trained day-traders writing in this forem "sell" before this pair was crossing strongly 103.00 and 104.00 finally. Some are gone because their money are gone all out of their pocket, but few still telling people to 'sell' at 103.70 in this forum. I just wish that those people would actually supporting reasons, instead to tell people only 'sell' .
i said the same thing, people been saying sell since forever... the number of sellers and buyers in UJ has been purely sell since the 103 mark, (even before that) and continues to be that way, why is that? no one really says why, technical analysis from certain price levels would indicate a certain short term sell for a pullback, but fundamentally, it was going to continue up, i was thinking todays news would have it bounce right off the 103.7 level to continue upwards, but didnt do anything because with 1 short spike, bears pushed it right back down, hmm, one thing i do know, bear pressure is serious at the present....share opinions
  • #47,833
  • Aug 28, 2014 1:52pm Aug 28, 2014 1:52pm
I would still be looking for buying opportunities on this pair.. I have been saying this for months now. This thing is still probably going to touch 105 or higher within the next few weeks imo
  • #47,834
  • Aug 28, 2014 3:40pm Aug 28, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} i said the same thing, people been saying sell since forever... the number of sellers and buyers in UJ has been purely sell since the 103 mark, (even before that) and continues to be that way, why is that? no one really says why, technical analysis from certain price levels would indicate a certain short term sell for a pullback, but fundamentally, it was going to continue up, i was thinking todays news would have it bounce right off the 103.7 level to continue upwards, but didnt do anything because with 1 short spike, bears pushed it right...
Its clear that the gdp data is not going to change the feds perspective, thats why usdjpy didnt bother alot today. Plus we have the geopolitical ukraine vs russia story, thats at this moment more important to this pair, and thats whats creating some shortterm sell pressure.
Still the US Data is coming in above expectations, and of course the dollar is not going to react to every data release like one would expect because there are other drivers in the market like for example the geopolitics, but the mediumterm picture is influenced by the data, and as long as we get good us data, the dollar will benefit, if not today or tomorrow then next week, when the world once again forgets about these ridiculous sanctions and childish war games and keeps turning, then data and the general divergence between the central banks will be back on focus and the dollar will rise as the good data releases keep coming.

and thats why i am buying in shortterm weakness based on shortterm politics and staying in the position for fundamental monetary policies, but of course never without an emergency stop.

good luck.
consistency wins
  • #47,835
  • Aug 28, 2014 6:48pm Aug 28, 2014 6:48pm
Quoting iTrader
{quote} Its clear that the gdp data is not going to change the feds perspective, thats why usdjpy didnt bother alot today. Plus we have the geopolitical ukraine vs russia story, thats at this moment more important to this pair, and thats whats creating some shortterm sell pressure. Still the US Data is coming in above expectations, and of course the dollar is not going to react to every data release like one would expect because there are other drivers in the market like for example the geopolitics, but the mediumterm picture is influenced by the...
nice, good breakdown, good knowledge, thank you for that, .......... so just to get the end part straight.... you are shorting short term? or you are buying in dips?
  • #47,836
  • Edited 7:42pm Aug 28, 2014 6:59pm | Edited 7:42pm
Buying in this "dip" (if you will) should i say
  • #47,837
  • Aug 28, 2014 7:43pm Aug 28, 2014 7:43pm
Quoting iTrader
{quote} Its clear that the gdp data is not going to change the feds perspective, thats why usdjpy didnt bother alot today. Plus we have the geopolitical ukraine vs russia story, thats at this moment more important to this pair, and thats whats creating some shortterm sell pressure. Still the US Data is coming in above expectations, and of course the dollar is not going to react to every data release like one would expect because there are other drivers in the market like for example the geopolitics, but the mediumterm picture is influenced by the...
I like your analysis. From my own tech point of view the past few days of selling still looks like a correction. I am 220p up on this pair over the past couple of weeks and am happy to expand my stop to give it room to prove us correct.
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  • #47,838
  • Aug 28, 2014 9:53pm Aug 28, 2014 9:53pm
i am long for this pair cos' the fundamental says so...
  • #47,839
  • Aug 28, 2014 11:22pm Aug 28, 2014 11:22pm
That was an awful close on the daily. Reduced my risk by 50%.
  • #47,840
  • Aug 29, 2014 12:09am Aug 29, 2014 12:09am
Quoting Pharm0r
That was an awful close on the daily. Reduced my risk by 50%.
It actually is awful close for those who called for 'sell' half a day ago from now.
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