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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,721
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:13am Aug 22, 2014 2:13am
Quoting pohchuan
Looks like the bull has lost steam.....it has been stagnant at 103.7xx region for long while. Time to short dollar?
Sorry, I'm not really active here anymore, but I just saw this post, and I'm not so sure. Haven't exactly looked at a chart yet butIknow the Uj trend is still up so I would be very cautious going short and if I did it would only be for a quick scalp. UJ can throw u off guard real fast so be ready to change ur mind in an instant.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,722
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:19am Aug 22, 2014 2:19am
Quoting pohchuan
Looks like the bull has lost steam.....it has been stagnant at 103.7xx region for long while. Time to short dollar?
A long while? Barely 2 days? LoL
  • #47,723
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:50am Aug 22, 2014 2:50am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Just trying to learn from those who have more experience with indicator .........
My friend, let me tell you about a Really Shitty Indicator. It is not worth the chart space it is written on!
All it will tell you is what you can see with your own eyes. ....it has a use in predicting trend reversal maybe.
Also it makes my chart look nice....

Quoting yeniful
I learned a valuable lesson. Stay with the current trend. I lost 107 pips on my short. I entered long on yen. maybe it will go past 105 high from January
If you are still holding this long be aware that UJ is now executing a flag, in the range 103.66 to 103.97, with a little tease yesterday.
Normally a break outside the boundaries indicates the direction of the next move, but not always.
Just to frustrate you UJ could be setting up for a short now, 104 is resistance - check the daily chart.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,724
  • Aug 22, 2014 3:48am Aug 22, 2014 3:48am
usd jpy------104.460
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: QQ截图20140822164542.png Size: 14 KB
  • #47,725
  • Edited 4:14am Aug 22, 2014 4:02am | Edited 4:14am
Could certainly keep going higher but we do seem a bit over extended in the short term. 130.50--103.70 area could attract sellers once we get back down there. I think this move higher to 104 is all part of the same game where price moves a bit higher to fool those who are seeing the next move correctly.

The mkt usually has another leg in that direction before reversing. It's just the way it works for some reason. At first I was thinking below 103 would fail but then PA showed 103.50+ was coming…. now up here it really does seem like a reversal is imminent. Likely to be trading back -103 next week.

If not from exhausted stock markets correcting, then from EUR/USD heading higher, or both.


Ridiculous that I have to say this but definitely don't listen to anything I'm saying because I'm admittedly clueless.
  • #47,726
  • Aug 22, 2014 4:18am Aug 22, 2014 4:18am
Quoting Ck87
Could certainly keep going higher but we do seem a bit over extended in the short term. 130.50--103.70 area could attract sellers once we get back down there. I think this move higher to 104 is all part of the same game where price moves a bit higher to fool those who are seeing the next move correctly. The mkt usually has another leg in that direction before reversing. It's just the way it works for some reason. At first I was thinking below 103 would fail but then PA showed 103.50+ was coming…. now up here it really does seem like a reversal is...
you are absolutely right , ck that a reversal is immenent.

however, the trend is still up and even a short term correction Cannot change that.

currently 30m 1h and 4h chArts heading south, but daily and weekly charts are so strong and bullish that it makes me think the correction will NOT be a severe one.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,727
  • Aug 22, 2014 4:23am Aug 22, 2014 4:23am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} you are absolutely right , ck that a reversal is immenent. however, the trend is still up and even a short term correction Cannot change that. currently 30m 1h and 4h chArts heading south, but daily and weekly charts are so strong and bullish that it makes me think the correction will NOT be a severe one.
Long term trend has been and still is clearly up. Just stuck sideways until we break out to new highs and can stay above that 105 level
  • #47,728
  • Aug 22, 2014 4:48am Aug 22, 2014 4:48am
Quoting Ck87
Long term trend has been and still is clearly up. Just stuck sideways until we break out to new highs and can stay above that 105 level
Exactly
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,729
  • Aug 22, 2014 5:34am Aug 22, 2014 5:34am
UJ has been range trading since January on the weekly and monthly. I see consolidation- not a bull trend.
  • #47,730
  • Aug 22, 2014 5:50am Aug 22, 2014 5:50am
Gidday YEN Master

Just took profit on short from high

Went back in pending short 104.5

Won't take longs at this level

Got caught last time it was up here.
  • #47,731
  • Aug 22, 2014 8:30am Aug 22, 2014 8:30am
Russian convoy already in ukraine territory but the market seems very cool,
Calm before storm?
Βelow 102.7 today?
  • #47,732
  • Aug 22, 2014 9:17am Aug 22, 2014 9:17am
Quoting thomaspaine
Russian convoy already in ukraine territory but the market seems very cool, Calm before storm? Βelow 102.7 today?
Today isnt about Ukraine, it's about Yellen and Draghi
  • #47,733
  • Aug 22, 2014 9:33am Aug 22, 2014 9:33am
Looks like the bulls are almostdone with yellen staying neutral. Time to short the greenback.
  • #47,734
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:09am Aug 22, 2014 11:09am
Still holding shorts-

Still not worried.

Yellen told us all we need to know. Until we hit 2% inflation- nothing changes. They can take the dollar to the moon if they want, its just gonna fall harder.
  • #47,735
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:13am Aug 22, 2014 11:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
Still holding shorts- Still not worried. Yellen told us all we need to know. Until we hit 2% inflation- nothing changes. They can take the dollar to the moon if they want, its just gonna fall harder.
Agreed.

Think we will see a fall soon with Ukraine heating up as well. Any levels in mind?
  • #47,736
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:17am Aug 22, 2014 11:17am
Bearish Divergence on H1
  • #47,737
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:17am Aug 22, 2014 11:17am
Added shorts again on ukraine/ 'steady as she goes' yellen.... 103.05, sl 104.03

Targeting 102.80 and lower
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  • #47,738
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:25am Aug 22, 2014 11:25am
Quoting Citiboy
Added shorts again on ukraine/ 'steady as she goes' yellen.... 103.05, sl 104.03 Targeting 102.80 and lower
I have this level as well.

101.45 is bottom of the weekly range we've been in since January.
  • #47,739
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:26am Aug 22, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Citiboy
Added shorts again on ukraine/ 'steady as she goes' yellen.... 103.05, sl 104.03 Targeting 102.80 and lower
same,
I also have x/JPY shorts on a seperate account...

G/J
EU/J
AU/J
N/J
  • #47,740
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:48am Aug 22, 2014 11:48am
To me the most relevant words abouth her Statement:

"The Committee reaffirmed its view “that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after our current asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.” But if progress in the labor market continues to be more rapid than anticipated by the Committee or if inflation moves up more rapidly than anticipated, resulting in faster convergence toward our dual objectives, then increases in the federal funds rate target could come sooner than the Committee currently expects and could be more rapid thereafter. Of course, if economic performance turns out to be disappointing and progress toward our goals proceeds more slowly than we expect, then the future path of interest rates likely would be more accommodative than we currently anticipate. As I have noted many times, monetary policy is not on a preset path."

I dont see any significant change in her rethoric for the USD to be so overbought, 103,30 seems like a good support for me, in January and March acted as support and resistance.
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