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  • #918,281
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:19am Aug 21, 2014 6:19am
Quoting KiwiTrada
might be a few pip on offer with aussie bear, retesting todays open
yup just got back in about hour ago sell triggered at .9279 kind of wished I waited a bit now since it went even higher but here hoping for some good unemployment data
  • #918,282
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:24am Aug 21, 2014 6:24am
Quoting gatorinla
just in case, i built a stairway. if i get s/o, oh well, thats trading. i dont know what will happen. 3258 is close atm.. maybe it can help. the high since the low is 1/4 {image}
Bear just ~50 pips below the Lower TL If you expect 338x then upper TL will fall into big trouble and weekly TF might confuse.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #918,283
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:32am Aug 21, 2014 6:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the lower trend is strong. if i am going to long near 3232.. what i think has little to do with this trade. i am blindly following a strategy. when it dont work it looks like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NShTpH9L0WI

. nice video .. i almost spit my coffee all over the keyboard !!
  • #918,284
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:32am Aug 21, 2014 6:32am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} yup just got back in about hour ago sell triggered at .9279 kind of wished I waited a bit now since it went even higher but here hoping for some good unemployment data
I already made a few pip of this mornings open, just trying to catch some more off the retest, quite a cluster of minor supports hidden close by appox 73 75 77ish so with the open as marker so with open 9286 allowed tiny sl of 5 pip worth a try
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  • #918,285
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:38am Aug 21, 2014 6:38am
Quoting forexings
{quote} Bear just ~50 pips below the Lower TL If you expect 338x then upper TL will fall into big trouble and weekly TF might confuse.
Thats how it usually works! because if every candle just followed the other untill it stopped and then went the other way in same fashion.. then it would be so easy making a analysis. something always fooks it up..
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  • #918,286
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:47am Aug 21, 2014 6:47am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} I already made a few pip of this mornings open, just trying to catch some more off the retest, quite a cluster of minor supports hidden close by appox 73 75 77ish so with the open as marker so with open 9286 allowed tiny sl of 5 pip worth a try
before any rocks thrown at my head, my entry is not 86 but 84, should have probably waitied for a retest of the ma cross just above which aligns with yesterdays open zone, so not overly confident until she drops thru todays open zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie 1hr 21 8 2014.png Size: 50 KB
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  • #918,287
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:59am Aug 21, 2014 6:59am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} before any rocks thrown at my head, my entry is not 86 but 84, should have probably waitied for a retest of the ma cross just above which aligns with yesterdays open zone, so not overly confident until she drops thru todays open zone {image}
Which pair is this?
  • #918,288
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:00am Aug 21, 2014 7:00am
as for eu 1hr pretty standard pa, no trade todays open as posted yesterday expecting 2pm today for bull to try stop this monster train thankfully wouldn't have got any pip anyways ,right now she is retesting today open from above, yesterdays open was nice entry 1/2 partial last night 1/4 already protected with fixed sl probably her out for me rest of week, if she breaks south great, if she continue bouncing will be looking to re enter higher been another good week for "mighty bears"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1hr 21 8 2014.png Size: 49 KB
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  • #918,289
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:04am Aug 21, 2014 7:04am
Quoting chazzle
GU D1 buying the dip in cable - think 576 will hold today ... {image}
closed 50% here ahead of data (still in reserve to poss. add lower) looking for 630 on the rest ... outta here gl all
  • #918,290
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:16am Aug 21, 2014 7:16am
Quoting SukkimLama
{quote} Which pair is this?
it is aussie, 1hr do you remember this chart the other day, its a batshit pattern, and has now played out for just over 100 pips, plenty of pip to make anyone happy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 1hr 19 8 2014.png Size: 88 KB
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  • #918,291
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:23am Aug 21, 2014 7:23am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} its a batshit pattern
  • #918,292
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:32am Aug 21, 2014 7:32am
Quoting yaed
{image} YIII HAAAW! If thats not enough, IVE GOT MORE WHERE THATS COMING FROM! DOWN YOU GO BOY! YIIII HAW! (I wonder if i drank too much coffee this morning) (6-12 espressos, thats about human dosage right?) Im at less then 0.2% drawdown so far! Gimme more!
Nice, Yaed! I do something similar but not so many trades. MM is KEY, people.
  • #918,293
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:34am Aug 21, 2014 7:34am
Quoting NoCoolNick
Mid day update, Bullflag /wedge on the smaller timeframes. We have been some 36 pips from the bottom, the largest bounce this week. Not super bullish buying, but not leaving the topside of todays range should indicate higher. Any US news out today and tomorrow that isn't very good will probably result in dollarselling, any sign that raising rates "sooner" might not happen would build pressure on dollarbulls, now thats my guess, want a better analysis go to FT dot com. What i'm expecting is news could drive EURUSD up regardless it not very good....
Looks like the number was not good enough even though better than expected... as suspected...
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  • #918,294
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:41am Aug 21, 2014 7:41am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} it is aussie, 1hr do you remember this chart the other day, its a batshit pattern, and has now played out for just over 100 pips, plenty of pip to make anyone happy {image}
too bad pa didn't want to stick to this
  • #918,295
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:46am Aug 21, 2014 7:46am
Quoting rehorst
{quote} Nice, Yaed! I do something similar but not so many trades. MM is KEY, people.
Well ive closed 17 positions today so far. But all those 17 where really more like bits of the same H4 trade. But i use M5 for the entries and exit. Think i maxed out my drawdown on -0.8%, of total account. Now that i closed on all of that i had upped my account something like +0.25% from what it was this morning . That sort of risk is low i guess, but is calculated for a H4 trade, its just that i scale into the trade and scale out. When i scale out i think mostly about reducing drawdown, not so much about getting profits. But the eventually at the end of the day i usually walk of with my accoung +0.1 to +0.6% bigger then it was in the morning.

In practice the AMOUNT of trades does not matter that much. Its just one of the variables in a very complex equation.

In the best of worlds, of course i would just use one position and close that when at 7 pip profit. However my calculations has led me to realize that if a place a nice position, even though it moves away from it say 30 pips, in a few hours i get to close it in profit most of the time. To me i have attained some form of insight into the average pattern of proce. It often means i have 4-5 open positions and i close 1-2 in profit at a time, but thats cool as long as my drawdown dont get higher then say 2%. I wouldnt want to take on more drawdown then i can make up for in a week.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #918,296
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:50am Aug 21, 2014 7:50am
some retrospective anal ysis

eu weekly
7weeks of ll lh not a market to be buying in, but there were plenty of mugs

4th candle to the left a nice reversal doji, needing the following candle to confirm some were suggesting it was, being a hammer, but a second reversal candle does not confirm the first but negate it

last weeks candle finally a hl (only a couple of pips but enough, still no signal to be buying, but there were plenty still trying
now those 3 leggy candles really were getting the bulls excited, poor things, because this weeks candle has slaughtered them all already
the bulls jumping in now or should be are new bulls, clever bulls, the ones being slaughtered over the last 8 weeks are mostly likely drunk on meths in some dingy corner

I guess if we get a decent bounce thread gonna be flooded with bulls saying see I told you so, all I can say is bears have feasted, have banked most of their coins and happily sipping bubbly at the clubs

this covers only the last 8 weeks, train started in May 760 pip above

bouncing from the bottom of todays open zone as typing,

not say they are finished, they are just taking a little break to re-freshen for the next battle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu weekly.png Size: 69 KB
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  • #918,297
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:56am Aug 21, 2014 7:56am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} it is aussie, 1hr do you remember this chart the other day, its a batshit pattern, and has now played out for just over 100 pips, plenty of pip to make anyone happy {image}
Ah, new pattern now.
  • #918,298
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:04am Aug 21, 2014 8:04am
Quoting SukkimLama
{quote} Ah, new pattern now.
yes this is the bat shit pattern up dated , as said has played out and bounced from previous support

it has just retraced 50% of the drop, so could be some fire works shortly, that 1hr close was a spinning top aka confusion maybe one more pop to 9296ish I am no rush to risk much pips just lost 5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie 1hr 22 8 2014.png Size: 68 KB
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  • #918,299
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:22am Aug 21, 2014 8:22am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yes this is the bat shit pattern up dated , as said has played out and bounced from previous support it has just retraced 50% of the drop, so could be some fire works shortly, that 1hr close was a spinning top aka confusion maybe one more pop to 9296ish I am no rush to risk much pips just lost 5 {image}
It's nice to know batsit pattern today. I just checked the AUD/USD, looks like 0.9296 potential intraday sell, huh?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_700.png Size: 29 KB
  • #918,300
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:31am Aug 21, 2014 8:31am
Quoting KiwiTrada
some retrospective anal ysis eu weekly 7weeks of ll lh not a market to be buying in, but there were plenty of mugs 4th candle to the left a nice reversal doji, needing the following candle to confirm some were suggesting it was, being a hammer, but a second reversal candle does not confirm the first but negate it last weeks candle finally a hl (only a couple of pips but enough, still no signal to be buying, but there were plenty still trying now those 3 leggy candles really were getting the bulls excited, poor things, because this weeks...
When we were in consolidation, we looked like we would turn up, but to much pressure. My thinking then was we need lower to get in new bears and then turn this thing around, by having a selloff. We have now had a selloff, a soft one comparing to old standards, but still.. sell sell sell and no real retrace. So maybe we could be looking at bears being trapped and the patient bull now taking over? The trend is always your friend until it backstabs you, then you need to find a new trendy friend.
In defense of the bear, i must say i would like to have seen some more bullpower here if we are trying to turn bears into skin. I'm still not sure which way, maybe we just get a pause today.. maybe we look at 3340 tomorrow..i would not be surprised as i try to stay openminded.
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