Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
- #75,181
- Aug 19, 2014 9:44am Aug 19, 2014 9:44am
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: In the learning phase.. | 1,377 Posts
- #75,182
- Edited 9:56am Aug 19, 2014 9:46am | Edited 9:56am
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: In the learning phase.. | 1,377 Posts
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
- #75,183
- Edited 10:56am Aug 19, 2014 10:29am | Edited 10:56am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
The PVSRA Lesson From Today:
The Robber Banks totally control and manipulate market prices. They are in the business to make a profit. They make a profit by building positions and then manipulating the price to make a profit on the positions. The focus is on obtaining the liquidity to build the positions. They can only obtain the liquidity to build two ways: getting traders into the market on the wrong side, and getting traders into the market on the right side and stopping them out.
This is why price moves up and down. It is to get traders on the wrong side, and to get traders on the right side and stop them out.
You can see, therefore, how important it is to determine if the Robber Banks are bulls or bears. Once you do, the PA will make more sense and will take on more meaning. But, we still cannot know how these Robber Banks will move the price next. So, while PVSRA helps us to determine if they are bulls or bears, we must always expect to be fooled by them. We counter that by trading light so we can open positions or add to any of our open positions when good opportunities arise, making those unexpected moves like Stop Hunts not the ones that stop us out, but ones that give us superb entry opportunities.
In summary, use PVSRA to determine if the Robber Banks are bulls or bears so that PA will begin to make some sense, and trade light so as to be in a position to take advantage of sudden price swings when the Robber Banks are swinging price to take advantage of traders. Remember, the goal of these rotten Robber Banks is to get traders on the wrong side. If traders are too good for them to do that, their goal is to get traders to trade on the right side so heavy relative to the sizes of their accounts that when the Stop Hunt comes they will either be stopped out or liquidated out!
-tah
The Robber Banks totally control and manipulate market prices. They are in the business to make a profit. They make a profit by building positions and then manipulating the price to make a profit on the positions. The focus is on obtaining the liquidity to build the positions. They can only obtain the liquidity to build two ways: getting traders into the market on the wrong side, and getting traders into the market on the right side and stopping them out.
This is why price moves up and down. It is to get traders on the wrong side, and to get traders on the right side and stop them out.
You can see, therefore, how important it is to determine if the Robber Banks are bulls or bears. Once you do, the PA will make more sense and will take on more meaning. But, we still cannot know how these Robber Banks will move the price next. So, while PVSRA helps us to determine if they are bulls or bears, we must always expect to be fooled by them. We counter that by trading light so we can open positions or add to any of our open positions when good opportunities arise, making those unexpected moves like Stop Hunts not the ones that stop us out, but ones that give us superb entry opportunities.
In summary, use PVSRA to determine if the Robber Banks are bulls or bears so that PA will begin to make some sense, and trade light so as to be in a position to take advantage of sudden price swings when the Robber Banks are swinging price to take advantage of traders. Remember, the goal of these rotten Robber Banks is to get traders on the wrong side. If traders are too good for them to do that, their goal is to get traders to trade on the right side so heavy relative to the sizes of their accounts that when the Stop Hunt comes they will either be stopped out or liquidated out!
-tah
- #75,184
- Aug 19, 2014 10:30am Aug 19, 2014 10:30am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Senior Member | 6,517 Posts
EU, quick scalp 5 units +27.5, Entered from pullback to quarter number 1.33250/resistance key level. Just got to my desk and was late to the party, but grabbed some anyway
Cigarguy
Cigarguy
Keep It Simple
- #75,187
- Aug 19, 2014 11:20am Aug 19, 2014 11:20am
The PVSRA Lesson From Today: The Robber Banks totally control and manipulate market prices. They are in the business to make a profit. They make a profit by building positions and then manipulating the price to make a profit on the positions. The focus is on obtaining the liquidity to build the positions. They can only obtain the liquidity to build two ways: getting traders into the market on the wrong side, and getting traders into the market on the right side and stopping them out. This is why price moves up and down. It is to get traders on the...
forexfactory needs "Like" button. Perfect lesson.
- #75,188
- Aug 19, 2014 11:51am Aug 19, 2014 11:51am
[quote=traderathome;7684019]Comment EU: "And we cannot know how the Robber Banks will move the price next." See? Yet another Stop Hunt on longs! This time taking price thru bottom of range. And with almost two days before the upcoming EUR high impacts they might keep price down here to accumulate more longs. As it stands right now, this is not a big move down for the US Robber Banks, so that is an indication that they are only taking out support levels, not running the price on a Bear Run for Profits. In other words, they take the price down to those support levels (where there are pending buy orders) that are close enough, and trigger the buy orders and then continue the price on down to stop them out. This looks like what these Robber Banks are up to today, and if so, they are very bullish. If you look at this range area as a Wyckoff Accumulation phase, we might classify the move down today as the "Spring". This move down has not yet reached RDL, nor the lower whole number. These are viable targets, and since they have not yet run the price down even the full day range one has to wonder if the Robber Banks are supporting the price now, for a while to let more longs join up, and then maybe they will complete the run down,......another Stop Hunt on longs. Well, once again, time will tell.
This is simply my read and limited understanding of the awesome Volume Exhaustion PDF's from Gupito. Again, simply my understanding and I am posting in hopes of gaining a better understanding.
EURUSD on my H1 chart I can see several times MM's whack price above whole number and this is where I see the highest volume. We all know MM likes to build position around whole numbers. Highest volume just above whole number to my understanding could mean MM building shorts. Again COULD BE!
If I disregard volume bar colors I simply notice volume bars growing as PA rises and in return Volume decreasing with PA decreasing.
I posted last week that MM's might still be Bears in attempt to play devils advocate, because I surely have none the experience of TAH or Sonic. But, even today I still see Bear action due to the higher volume at the highs.
Buy high, sell low...
If I'm reading this wrong that's fine, I'm just trying to learn.
This week FOMC, Fellon Yellen talk, and ECB talks so lots of opportunity to break out of the range EU has been trapped in.
This is simply my read and limited understanding of the awesome Volume Exhaustion PDF's from Gupito. Again, simply my understanding and I am posting in hopes of gaining a better understanding.
EURUSD on my H1 chart I can see several times MM's whack price above whole number and this is where I see the highest volume. We all know MM likes to build position around whole numbers. Highest volume just above whole number to my understanding could mean MM building shorts. Again COULD BE!
If I disregard volume bar colors I simply notice volume bars growing as PA rises and in return Volume decreasing with PA decreasing.
I posted last week that MM's might still be Bears in attempt to play devils advocate, because I surely have none the experience of TAH or Sonic. But, even today I still see Bear action due to the higher volume at the highs.
Buy high, sell low...
If I'm reading this wrong that's fine, I'm just trying to learn.
This week FOMC, Fellon Yellen talk, and ECB talks so lots of opportunity to break out of the range EU has been trapped in.
- #75,190
- Aug 19, 2014 1:06pm Aug 19, 2014 1:06pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trade what you see... | 224 Posts
[quote=slimypips;7684650] PVSRA come in action on EURUSD...
Many being trapped at EURUSD, and that's include mine... Today bearish acting MM on EURUSD is a premise of PVSRA that come in play, and MM already prepared since FRIDAY.... Last friday, EURUSD shows long pinbar, and that pinbar candle showed MM opening short with a massive order. After that, MM manipulated the price higher, at afterhours with extremely low volume.... That's known as "Fixing the Price". today, I still not seeing MM change their course. So, I looking a great and better price to fold or if PA with PVSRA shows that MM switch to bull, I'll fixed my loosen position with "add"....
One tip about reading PVSRA, always watch both side... As retail trader, we are limited to the amount of order we can do in a minute (leverage and capital limitation). But MM can switch their position any time, with a massive order in minute (around 3000 order/minute each trader from MM with a gigantic money, so they will move the price according their will). In another word, as a guerilla equipped with a pistol, versus elite army with Minigun from Blackhawk, you got to be sneaky and very careful. Trade lightly will not helpful if you can't read and exploit their weakness. Sooner or later, margin call or stopped out will come and make yours busted. Your own judgement about your equity safety will be required here. For tomorrow FOMC, EUR news, and the other fancy stuffs that trader can called, if this MM still acting like today, and opened short at high (a long tail above candle body on H1 with significant volume), bear still reign.
One last thing to remember, all of us need to pay higher spread than what MM do. So, count each risk well, and use safety judgement each trade you did.
Chart Legend :
Blue Square : bullish Sign
Red Square : Bearish sign.
Regards,
-GP-
Comment EU: "And we cannot know how the Robber Banks will move the price next." See? Yet another Stop Hunt on longs! This time taking price thru bottom of range. And with almost two days before the upcoming EUR high impacts they might keep price down here to accumulate more longs. As it stands right now, this is not a big move down for the US Robber Banks, so that is an indication that they are only taking out support levels, not running the price on a Bear Run for Profits. In other words, they take the price down to those support levels (where there are pending buy orders) that are close enough, and trigger the buy orders and then continue the price on down to stop them out. This looks like what these Robber Banks are up to today, and if so, they are very bullish. If you look at this range area as a Wyckoff Accumulation phase, we might classify the move down today as the "Spring". This move down has not yet reached RDL, nor the lower whole number. These are viable targets, and since they have not yet run the price down even the full day range one has to wonder if the Robber Banks are supporting the price now, for a while to let more longs join up, and then maybe they will complete the run down,......another Stop Hunt on longs. Well, once again, time will tell. This is simply my read and limited understanding of the awesome Volume Exhaustion PDF's from Gupito. Again, simply my understanding and I am posting in hopes of gaining a better understanding. EURUSD on my H1 chart I can see several times MM's whack price above whole number and this is where I see the highest volume. We all know MM likes to build position around whole numbers. Highest volume just above whole number to my understanding could mean MM building shorts. Again COULD BE! If I disregard volume bar colors I simply notice volume bars growing as PA rises and in return Volume decreasing with PA decreasing. I posted last week that MM's might still be Bears in attempt to play devils advocate, because I surely have none the experience of TAH or Sonic. But, even today I still see Bear action due to the higher volume at the highs. Buy high, sell low... If I'm reading this wrong that's fine, I'm just trying to learn. This week FOMC, Fellon Yellen talk, and ECB talks so lots of opportunity to break out of the range EU has been trapped in. {image}
Many being trapped at EURUSD, and that's include mine... Today bearish acting MM on EURUSD is a premise of PVSRA that come in play, and MM already prepared since FRIDAY.... Last friday, EURUSD shows long pinbar, and that pinbar candle showed MM opening short with a massive order. After that, MM manipulated the price higher, at afterhours with extremely low volume.... That's known as "Fixing the Price". today, I still not seeing MM change their course. So, I looking a great and better price to fold or if PA with PVSRA shows that MM switch to bull, I'll fixed my loosen position with "add"....
One tip about reading PVSRA, always watch both side... As retail trader, we are limited to the amount of order we can do in a minute (leverage and capital limitation). But MM can switch their position any time, with a massive order in minute (around 3000 order/minute each trader from MM with a gigantic money, so they will move the price according their will). In another word, as a guerilla equipped with a pistol, versus elite army with Minigun from Blackhawk, you got to be sneaky and very careful. Trade lightly will not helpful if you can't read and exploit their weakness. Sooner or later, margin call or stopped out will come and make yours busted. Your own judgement about your equity safety will be required here. For tomorrow FOMC, EUR news, and the other fancy stuffs that trader can called, if this MM still acting like today, and opened short at high (a long tail above candle body on H1 with significant volume), bear still reign.
One last thing to remember, all of us need to pay higher spread than what MM do. So, count each risk well, and use safety judgement each trade you did.
Chart Legend :
Blue Square : bullish Sign
Red Square : Bearish sign.
Regards,
-GP-
It's all started from page one
- #75,192
- Aug 19, 2014 1:55pm Aug 19, 2014 1:55pm
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: In the learning phase.. | 1,377 Posts
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
- #75,193
- Aug 19, 2014 2:32pm Aug 19, 2014 2:32pm
Wherever price will go, this will be a big move. On my broker there was no such big volume for more than half of a year now.
This week's move so far is 100 pips. Last times with volume like that there were moves going for 2 to 3 hundreds of pips. So with a big chance there is a big move to play going on soon.
This week's move so far is 100 pips. Last times with volume like that there were moves going for 2 to 3 hundreds of pips. So with a big chance there is a big move to play going on soon.
- #75,195
- Edited 7:14pm Aug 19, 2014 4:40pm | Edited 7:14pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
Comment EU: .....If you look at this range area as a Wyckoff Accumulation phase, we might classify the move down today as the "Spring"......
.....what I'm sure is that smart money taking long positions during that down move because volume is very high and there has to be both trades in there, retailers shorts and smart money longs. H4 - looks like accumulation, so I don't see this down trend could continue long.....
..... Many being trapped at EURUSD, and that's include mine.....I looking a great and better price to fold or if PA with PVSRA shows that MM switch to bull, I'll fixed my loosen position with "add".....
As loeil and I have pointed out, here is solid reason to suspect the Robber Bank MMs have been swinging price - whipping and whacking it - in order to build their long positions by getting other traders on the wrong side, and traders on the right side and then stopping them out. But, as Gupito said, the current strong bear action these MMs are engaged in is unpredictable as to when and how it ends.
As has been said over and over, we cannot know how the MMs will move the price next. What we can do is determine if they are bulls or bears, look for a turning of the price such that if they are bulls the price turns up or if they are bears the price turns down, and then trade that side using light entries. And yes, we should always be aware of upcoming releases that could serve as the timing for the start or end of significant swings. In other words, why waste an entry "now" if there is a good chance there will be a climatic high or low still to come?
Trade Management/Money Management
Any first entry into a trade can be Classic if there is a setup. Otherwise don't enter. This is the conservative approach. Or, the first entry can be a Scout based on good PVSRA and in anticipation the price is finishing in one direction and will be headed back the other way, to and thru the Dragon. This is the much higher risk approach. But once a trade has been entered, we cannot allow ourselves to think because we intend on a single entry trade of large size, that things are going to go in our direction and work out that way. The price could suddenly and strongly reverse, taking the trade into the red and with new PVSRA signs to indicate it might continue that way. But how far? For how long? What do we do, fold, hold or add? This is exactly the situation the Robber Bank MMs continuously put traders in. And we need to have our game plan - fold, hold or add - based on previous and current PVSRA, the size of our single entry, and the size of our account. Obviously, if we have a large single entry, we cannot be so flexible because the ledger goes too deeply blood red too quickly. Only the very best of setups with the very best of higher supporting TF charts and PVSRA should be "larger single entry" trades. And even then things can sour very quickly. Smaller size entries give the trader more flexibility, more time and places to re-assess and decide if to fold, hold or add.
I do not have any statistics to prove what I am about to say, but I believe the best way for most traders to assure a growing account is to not focus on big profits from trades, but to focus on stemming the tide of big losses from them. Single entry trades that are large relative to the account size is the least flexible, and therefore the least manageable way to trade because your options are more limited and time runs out on you more quickly. Remember, the Robber Banks MMs set up PA to encourage right side traders to over trade. That way, when they do their Stop Hunt, right side traders will be busted either with a SL being hit or by trade liquidation due to a margin call. Over trading by making entries too large in size for your account, and setting stop loss pending orders, are exactly the two things the Robber Bank MMs want you to do because it gives them two ways to steal your money when they go Stop Hunting: hit your SL, or give you a margin call.
If we desire to be successful traders, we need to exercise patience. We need to exercise patience in stalking for good trade opportunities so we don't waste our entries. And we need to exercise patience in growing our accounts by flexibly nibbling away at the market with small entries instead of risking our money in a succession of less manageable large entry attempts to get big profits from the market.
-tah
- #75,197
- Aug 19, 2014 6:10pm Aug 19, 2014 6:10pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2014 | 1,289 Posts
Neural Network Algorithm and Econophysics
- #75,198
- Edited 7:55pm Aug 19, 2014 6:48pm | Edited 7:55pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
{quote} Tah Thank you for all your analysis and theories regarding as to what you believe will happen next in the Forex market. I am here to learn and not to complain but I have noted the following observations and please do correct me if I am off a tangent. What I fail to comprehend is that in the majority of all your trades that you post, why do you not simply trade what you see on the chart and follow the trend instead of trading what you think should happen? It is like going into an examination room and you do not find the questions you hoped...
Okay, now for some serious humor. When I trade the charts, things almost always soon go belly up. When I trade my suspicions instead, things almost always soon go belly up. So, I pick a direction and trade light. And most of the time - not always - it works out. And I feel those times that it does not work out entitles me to swear at the rotten Robber Banks.
I need to improve in three areas:
1. Assessing direction - not just per M15, but per all that there is to assess, including pure candles on Week and Day charts.
2. Timing entries and with better separation - to avoid over trading,....patience, patience, patience.
3. Folding more instead of holding/adding - Accept when PA looks too great against me and current PVSRA does not support me, and get the hell out!
Sonicers, remember that Master Sonicdeejay owns this estate. I am just the poorly paid overseer, and gardener that likes to stick his hands in dirt.
-tah
- #75,199
- Edited 8:24pm Aug 19, 2014 8:07pm | Edited 8:24pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
Market Comment:
Sonicers,
In this session (in about 17 hours) comes the FOMC high impact, but in the following session are more USD and EUR high impact releases. And there is a "Draghi Speaks" later in the week. This week there are lots of "news to confuse" releases, just what the rotten Robber Banks love.
Now, to my suspicious and whacko way of thinking, if the rotten Robber Bank MMs are building positions, then these release give them plenty of excuse to whip and whack prices, maybe repeatedly, in order to draw in wrong side traders and in order to draw in right side traders and stop them out. The up and down market price moves are all about the rotten Robber Bank MMs being able to obtain the liquidity they need to build their position on which they will profit once they complete it and start their Run for Profits.
Which side is the right side? We do our PVSRA, assess whatever Classic setups come, and take our chances. Trade light initially. The week is still young. More Stop Hunts can be coming.
-tah
Sonicers,
In this session (in about 17 hours) comes the FOMC high impact, but in the following session are more USD and EUR high impact releases. And there is a "Draghi Speaks" later in the week. This week there are lots of "news to confuse" releases, just what the rotten Robber Banks love.
Now, to my suspicious and whacko way of thinking, if the rotten Robber Bank MMs are building positions, then these release give them plenty of excuse to whip and whack prices, maybe repeatedly, in order to draw in wrong side traders and in order to draw in right side traders and stop them out. The up and down market price moves are all about the rotten Robber Bank MMs being able to obtain the liquidity they need to build their position on which they will profit once they complete it and start their Run for Profits.
Which side is the right side? We do our PVSRA, assess whatever Classic setups come, and take our chances. Trade light initially. The week is still young. More Stop Hunts can be coming.
-tah
- #75,200
- Aug 19, 2014 8:16pm Aug 19, 2014 8:16pm
Sonicers, remember that Master Sonicdeejay owns this estate. I am just the poorly paid overseer, and gardener that likes to stick his hands in dirt.
-tah
Yes sir we know that Master Sonicdeejay owns this estate, BUT I believe that you are the "BEST GARDENER" in his estate! Pls continue with your analysis, projections! best guide for us, newbies! GOD bless!
-tahYes sir we know that Master Sonicdeejay owns this estate, BUT I believe that you are the "BEST GARDENER" in his estate! Pls continue with your analysis, projections! best guide for us, newbies! GOD bless!