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  • #917,161
  • Aug 17, 2014 1:57pm Aug 17, 2014 1:57pm
Hey guys, it's sunday at 2:40 and I'm a complete noob with forex so you can disreguard this post but for those who just want a little read, your welcome to read. My background, I have an mechanical engineering degree and thought it would be fun to do technical analysis with calculus / slope/ and newton-ralphson method. My analysis is from using a daily chart from 1.28 to August 2013. Also, I did all the math by hand and cannot send to you at this point. My assumption for my prediction for the next peak is that 1.3350 was the bottom of the peak from 1.3700 from June 27th. My prediction whether valid or not is that Eur/usd will go up between 60 pips to 80 pips with a safety factor of + or - 20% from 1.335. So Sell orders/ downtrend continuation will occur between 1.3398 at the lowest to the top at 1.3450 and if correct; can be looking for approximately 150 pip drop at 15%. As for me, Imma wait till the drop is confirmed then I'm shorting eur/usd and see how my prediction goes. My reason, I want to trade with the trend to increase my odds.
  • #917,162
  • Aug 17, 2014 1:57pm Aug 17, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I am all ears, too. But claiming probability "1" which means "certainty" is all what I was complaining about. With a probability of "1" I will be someday dead. And even when we can claim (hypothetically) that a level XY will be revisited "sometimes" in the future with certainty - what value has this infoirmation, when we do not know a) the time it needs (maybe I am dead then) b) how far away the price will go from the XY level before returning there again Look on his own trade explorer: There you can witness three things: a) he does not...
thumbs up was for the "Delusion of Grandeur " statement

I have the feeling that many of us possessed that "Delusion" at one time or the other ...but FOREX took care of that .....Delusion of Grandeur is a sober assessment and should not be missed by ANYBODY......a must read ......thx for the article Infi......
  • #917,163
  • Aug 17, 2014 2:02pm Aug 17, 2014 2:02pm


http://www.libriscrowe.com/non/Image...%20mirror.jpeg
  • #917,164
  • Edited 2:25pm Aug 17, 2014 2:04pm | Edited 2:25pm
EU gap down 10 pips just now
but notice GU gap up 40 pips
is this real? Xe.com

Something happened in Ukraine again?
  • #917,165
  • Aug 17, 2014 2:56pm Aug 17, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} thumbs up was for the "Delusion of Grandeur " statement I have the feeling that many of us possessed that "Delusion" at one time or the other ...but FOREX took care of that .....Delusion...

I once diagnosed another member of FF with this illness. Can someone remember?
  • #917,166
  • Aug 17, 2014 2:58pm Aug 17, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} thumbs up was for the "Delusion of Grandeur " statement I have the feeling that many of us possessed that "Delusion" at one time or the other ...but FOREX took care of that .....Delusion...

credit for the article belongs to Ken A
  • #917,167
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:28pm Aug 17, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i give him enough rope to hang himself. i am personally rooting for someone to build a better mouse trap. if he/she/it presents one. i want to be their friend. i will not know till i see the mouses caught. if there is something out there that is even a 60/40 % shot of being good that works with a 1, 3. r/r. and i add it as a reason not to trade. it may cut down my trading. i just need to take out a few bad trades, to make more money. even if i miss some good ones.. if his thing works for a target... i can incorporate that with entries or...
gator, fini,
Ropes, grandeurs and probabilities, for entertainment sake, I tried to do some forensic re-reading of quotes but the picture is still quite blurry.

That aside, I enjoyed following eurusdd's trade explorer, pity it was only on for 5days but was quite impressed with the announcement and performance. wish I had a few more weekends and days like this that allow to stroll around the threads.
  • #917,168
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:32pm Aug 17, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I once diagnosed another member of FF with this illness. Can someone remember?
ME???
  • #917,169
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:32pm Aug 17, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I suspect 10 pips are like a noise for a weekly or quarterly time frame. Nobody will know what freaking news will appear in a month or 2, which will easily cause some spike of 50 pips or more, or violate the predicted top or bottom. Just my 0.00001 cents.
My cents say, news/data adjusts to the order flow

the order flow does not adjust to the news/data


rare exceptions are such cases like March 2011 for the yen, and still, that move was reversed very sharply

it could be predicted technically (just not the speed and depth of the move), but the move itself and the reversal were obvious before the earthquake
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #917,170
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:34pm Aug 17, 2014 3:34pm
  • #917,171
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:35pm Aug 17, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I once diagnosed another member of FF with this illness. Can someone remember?
might have an idea, and in general I could not say I have witnessed a lack of delusional characters ever on here
  • #917,172
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:37pm Aug 17, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting 2046
{quote} gator, fini, Ropes, grandeurs and probabilities, for entertainment sake, I tried to do some forensic re-reading of quotes but the picture is still quite blurry. That aside, I enjoyed following eurusdd's trade explorer, pity it was only on for 5days but was quite impressed with the announcement and performance. wish I had a few more weekends and days like this that allow to stroll around the threads.
Me too. I think he made many people extremely jealous with his unortodox methodology. He also made his point and did bring some different approach to the table. I wished he stayed a bit longer.
  • #917,173
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:39pm Aug 17, 2014 3:39pm
People don't seem to realize big money have been carrying Aussie longs even through 2012 and 2013 because they know eventually we will see parity again. The big money on one side has been buying every dip in Aus since we broke 1.01 floor...

and they will continue to accumulate 100,000s of lots until we go above parity once again. the negative drawdown means nothing to them, the yield is what they care about. there are funds out there so large that 1 million lots and a 10% movement from a currency pair does very little to their bottom line (that's a 10 billion P/L for those who can't do math)

i do expect a dip to .8850 before 1.01 (higher low)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #917,174
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:40pm Aug 17, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting 2046
{quote} gator, fini, Ropes, grandeurs and probabilities, for entertainment sake, I tried to do some forensic re-reading of quotes but the picture is still quite blurry. That aside, I enjoyed following eurusdd's trade explorer, pity it was only on for 5days but was quite impressed with the announcement and performance. wish I had a few more weekends and days like this that allow to stroll around the threads.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Demo King.PNG Size: 68 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Googletrader.PNG Size: 63 KB
  • #917,175
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:52pm Aug 17, 2014 3:52pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
People don't seem to realize big money have been carrying Aussie longs even through 2012 and 2013 because they know eventually we will see parity again. The big money on one side has been buying every dip in Aus since we broke 1.01 floor... and they will continue to accumulate 100,000s of lots until we go above parity once again. the negative drawdown means nothing to them, the yield is what they care about. there are funds out there so large that 1 million lots and a 10% movement from a currency pair does very little to their bottom line (that's...
Aha ok. So how much you yield per year if you are 20% down in half a year?
  • #917,176
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:55pm Aug 17, 2014 3:55pm
My brain cells exploded hilariously - probably the funny nerves
  • #917,177
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:56pm Aug 17, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} {image} {image}
Hi Ken,
not sure what you want to say with the two images in your post, who is googletrader, how is it related to the Eurusdd account and when is the latter from.

I was rather referring to this one...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post7676918
  • #917,178
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:58pm Aug 17, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting 2046
{quote} Hi Ken, not sure what you want to say with the two images in your post, who is googletrader, how is it related to the Eurusdd account and when is the latter from. I was rather referring to this one... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post7676918
Oh yes, what I am trying to say is he is the best of the best
  • #917,179
  • Aug 17, 2014 4:06pm Aug 17, 2014 4:06pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Oh yes, what I am trying to say is he is the best of the best
have not really been around enough to see the irony it it, if there is any.

however, and totally unrelated, I just discovered Fatpanda is still around, and that made me smile
  • #917,180
  • Aug 17, 2014 4:10pm Aug 17, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting 2046
{quote} have not really been around enough to see the irony it it, if there is any. however, and totally unrelated, I just discovered Fatpanda is still around, and that made me smile
I am beginning to believe that FX markets are controlled by FF DEMO accounts or probably getting the wrong impressions from here ............

Do you think I should seek help .............. or just staying away from this place to keep the sanity in check
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