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EURUSD

  • #917,121
  • Aug 17, 2014 2:41am Aug 17, 2014 2:41am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I am all ears, too. But claiming probability "1" which means "certainty" is all what I was complaining about. With a probability of "1" I will be someday dead. And even when we can claim (hypothetically) that a level XY will be revisited "sometimes" in the future with certainty - what value has this infoirmation, when we do not know a) the time it needs (maybe I am dead then) b) how far away the price will go from the XY level before returning there again Look on his own trade explorer: There you can witness three things: a) he does not...
simply : it's a demo account with "over lot" for a position

even it used super over lot...... no risk at all coz it's demo . or there is risk .."playing" with demo account ?

IMHO
not euphoria follower
  • #917,122
  • Aug 17, 2014 2:58am Aug 17, 2014 2:58am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
SPX is too easy (technically). Soros increased his bet 6 fold. I honestly don't think he's that good, I think he has a trusted technician make the calls/place the trades. Hard to imagine 80 year old guy with that much technical precision. {image}
Hi, do you have a quote/source for that? Thanks.
Fail better.
  • #917,123
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:03am Aug 17, 2014 3:03am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Hi, do you have a quote/source for that? Thanks.
Kate Kelly - CNBC
not euphoria follower
  • #917,124
  • Aug 17, 2014 3:07am Aug 17, 2014 3:07am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} Kate Kelly - CNBC
Thank you!
Fail better.
  • #917,125
  • Aug 17, 2014 4:14am Aug 17, 2014 4:14am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Hi, do you have a quote/source for that? Thanks.
See here:
http://whalewisdom.com/filer/soros-fund-management-llc
  • #917,126
  • Edited 7:38am Aug 17, 2014 5:29am | Edited 7:38am
GOLD
These scenarios still possible after plunge to 1296, 70.7% Ret area 4 hours chart. That becomes the area where stops should be below. Now we have a 70.7 Ret 4 Hrs chart inside 61.8 Ret Daily chart. Best and most secure way to trade this is to wait for ret on 1 hour chart, 50, 61.8 or 78.6 and scale in if price breaks 86.4 start to scale out. Ahead lies 1320 strong resistance as you were able to see, after that 1324 (MR1) and when if we pass it 1345, final destination should be 1360-65 area. If price breaks down I will wait for another setup.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD possible Bfly Daily.png Size: 151 KB
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  • #917,127
  • Edited 8:06am Aug 17, 2014 5:39am | Edited 8:06am
EURUSD
What do I see here?
Very little, there are several opportunities for patterns forming including the 4 hours 3 drive buy at 1.3296 (posted last week), but none completed yet and market still coiling in this range. If you are scalping then this range offers good ops up and down. I need more clarity to build a solid position based on a clear pattern.
Looking at CFTC you will see how short positions are building up to levels suggesting reversal or bounce up so kind of a warning sign about what may be coming soon, as well monthly pivot still to be tested, 70 % probability of that happening.
Have a good weekend.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #917,128
  • Aug 17, 2014 5:44am Aug 17, 2014 5:44am
Quoting USDollar
Why Im bullish EURUSD and answer to email question I have received.. http://youtu.be/Xdiw05i3jhQ
why didn't you just respond by email and guarantee they saw your answer?
  • #917,129
  • Aug 17, 2014 6:49am Aug 17, 2014 6:49am
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  • #917,130
  • Aug 17, 2014 6:53am Aug 17, 2014 6:53am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} signing out:

but take this wise statement. eurusd is targeting 1.3347!!!

Thank me later.

I am out
By the time of your post the rate was at 1.3375

Guess that must be the reason you hide your demo trade explorer, again

Or .............

You probably will say don't want people to copy your trade on Saturday and Sunday

I can praise you now if you want or wait after price went to 1.3347

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http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1408231033
  • #917,131
  • Edited 8:07am Aug 17, 2014 6:56am | Edited 8:07am
USDJPY
This Bfly sell daily (posted here 3 weeks ago) still in play, after trading it on the way down and up from .786 Ret + MS1 price wasn't able to make a new high and again .786 Ret daily with strong resistance. I see this pair going lower again and the reason why we can't stick with one single direction is simple: Indecision. So I am trying to remain always on the right side, plan now is to add shorts at 1 hour chart main levels for fibonacci retracements, as usual trying to combine this retracements with pivots either daily or weekly ones.(this type of entry allows very small losses in case setup doesn't work versus possible reward in case it does).
S&P was rejected at the exact same level.
Risk: Price finished the week above Monthly pivot.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #917,132
  • Aug 17, 2014 7:35am Aug 17, 2014 7:35am
Copper
This could be a good buy opportunity as two patterns formed but most importantly it has formed them at good levels.
Price is currently sitting at 48% Ret weekly, so hasn't touched 50% yet, at the same time on the Daily chart price accomplished 70.7 ret and this is a 1 to 1 bullish pattern along with a bfly buy. We haven't got reversal candle or candlestick pattern yet so we wait till the end of Monday to see whether it provides further clarity.
This is counter trend/momentum, so very risky!!
Always start small position and then incrementally add to it if it's going in your direction after respective retracement.
If I have the chance will post here best time to get in.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #917,133
  • Aug 17, 2014 8:26am Aug 17, 2014 8:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it does look weak. it usually does, usd bears need to break support. thats not a done deal atm. bulls had the b/o last. atm may just be a retrace before bounce on the usdx chart. the r/r shaded green verse red {image}
3.5 months later. 80.59 is in play in this chart. with a calculator or head math 80.77 (atm high since eu 2992) will be present.. 80.59 is the 1/4 mark of whats usdx indicated. on the eu 3325 is 3/4 way to 3102. some some bouncing in the current areas was/is expected. how much is the question. if the usdx b/o is true, then the eu may be only 1/4 of the way to a minimal destination. in normal times a bounce of 300 eu would not be a surprise, it would be more expected, then not. i personally dont think this is normal times. 1/2 of 300 is 150. close to the mpp.. 1/2 of the 150 is 75.. 75 pips + atm low is in the 3407 area. not a day closed above it yet since low. not a 4h close above 3412 mid point of 3383.5 and 3442. since 3992 bounces have been below normal.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #917,134
  • Aug 17, 2014 8:34am Aug 17, 2014 8:34am
eu d1 =consolidation

Quoting wael0102003
{image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur USD w1 17 (DFB).png Size: 25 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #917,135
  • Aug 17, 2014 8:37am Aug 17, 2014 8:37am
w1 past ,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #917,136
  • Aug 17, 2014 8:45am Aug 17, 2014 8:45am
Quoting pedro319
Copper This could be a good buy opportunity as two patterns formed but most importantly it has formed them at good levels. Price is currently sitting at 48% Ret weekly, so hasn't touched 50% yet, at the same time on the Daily chart price accomplished 70.7 ret and this is a 1 to 1 bullish pattern along with a bfly buy. We haven't got reversal candle or candlestick pattern yet so we wait till the end of Monday to see whether it provides further clarity. This is counter trend/momentum, so very risky!! Always start small position and then incrementally...
out of curiosity, what is these levels i see 3.90 what are them all? 1,2,3,
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #917,137
  • Aug 17, 2014 8:55am Aug 17, 2014 8:55am
Quoting pipster1
{quote} ... a precise location to place a pending buy/sell line along with a great area for a solid SL level and are HIGHLY effective (as long as the pattern occurs in the correct area matched with correct PA). For instance a midrange chart HH followed by a HL at supt, accompanied by favorable daily candles ( the Euro trade I missed this morning). When this happens, I drop down to my immediate time frame entry chart (M3 renko) for a more precise entry and to minimize my stop. I would never take one of these triggers if they randomly appear outside a supt/resistance box, unless I am going with a strong trend. The BASIC progression: 1) Consider daily; 2) consider midrange, 3) if PA points to it, look for the entry trigger in a supt/resistance box on your lowest time frame, hopefully with the medium term and long trend. If counter trend stay 1-1 RR, and let areas of s/r acting as your lock profit and take profit areas. AND trade around key news events. NEVER speculate based on some news release.

Can't tell you how many bad trades I have taken thinking price was going to go to a certain level based on some news release. Trade around news, wait for the news event to clear, and take your entry based on price action. I rarely know what was said in the news while trading, only that a news release has passed and that now I can look for an entry. Too many people speculate on what was said in the news on this board in my opinion. Be aware of the news release, then let PA dictate your entry, and never hold a large position prior to a major news release...this is gambling especially once high volume trading returns in September.

... Here are two 3 point turn entries I took as the trend passed through key levels. I have many other examples if you are interested 14-07-16_(rob) (1).png

... I find pure price action much more reliable than indicators and retrace levels. The cleaner a chart is with less noise the clearer I tend to think. Trading ain't easy, I've made every mistake in the book, lost my ass on occasion, but I understand now that this game takes experience....and that means trading live with substantial lot sizes that have the potential to change your life. My rule is 0.1 lot for every $2000 in my account is the most I risk. IF a person is a career demo or micro trader...then what's the point? You can't truly evaluate your trading ability unless you have some true skin n the game..... Said much here, but explaining my trading to others helps solidify things for me. Cheers! {image} {image} {image}

Thanks Pipster. Thanks for the detailed outline, i love reading every word you write in your post, because i agree to the philosophy behind.
especially the view you have regarding news events. this reminds me of the teaching 'trade with your eyes, not ears, and not even your mind.'

regarding your 3 point turn pattern, they are lovely. and can you describe a bit about the leaning ghost too?

median renko charts are new to me. any good pointers for a starter like me?

is your online peer group accepting new members? i would love to join.

any reason to use M3 for your immediate TF?


Again, thanks for the wise words that you shared.
  • #917,138
  • Aug 17, 2014 9:09am Aug 17, 2014 9:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} out of curiosity, what is these levels i see 3.90 what are them all? 1,2,3, {image}
1- 3.293
2- 3.277
3- 3.167
  • #917,139
  • Aug 17, 2014 9:17am Aug 17, 2014 9:17am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I am all ears, too. But claiming probability "1" which means "certainty" is all what I was complaining about. With a probability of "1" I will be someday dead. And even when we can claim (hypothetically) that a level XY will be revisited "sometimes" in the future with certainty - what value has this infoirmation, when we do not know a) the time it needs (maybe I am dead then) b) how far away the price will go from the XY level before returning there again Look on his own trade explorer: There you can witness three things: a) he does not...
i give him enough rope to hang himself. i am personally rooting for someone to build a better mouse trap. if he/she/it presents one. i want to be their friend. i will not know till i see the mouses caught. if there is something out there that is even a 60/40 % shot of being good that works with a 1, 3. r/r. and i add it as a reason not to trade. it may cut down my trading. i just need to take out a few bad trades, to make more money. even if i miss some good ones.. if his thing works for a target... i can incorporate that with entries or tp from a totally different method..

simply if he can prove we will go to a level with a high % of accuracy, i can use that. with my entries being close to edges with a near s/l.. when he said it would not go to 3399, i was expecting 3405/ up till 3444. it went to 3432. then to his level. if he can do that consistent , when i do my thing.. there is gold if it can be bottled.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #917,140
  • Edited 9:55am Aug 17, 2014 9:25am | Edited 9:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} out of curiosity, what is these levels i see 3.90 what are them all? 1,2,3, {image}
If it's the fib numbers you are asking for then:
1- .707 Ret Weekly chart previous swing + 1.618 Extension Daily chart
2- .864 Ret Daily chart (so .864 of .707)
3- .447 Ret Daiy chart
Cheers.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
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