USD/TRY

Was buying overnight and theres been a nice move up, USDZAR as well. Plan to keep trading in and out to avoid carry but if this gets going above 2.15 it seems like we can get a big move higher. So far USDTRY seems to be able to stand up above 2.15


THE ERDOGAN WAY: HIGH INFLATION? CUT RATES-- http://trendersgame.com/2014/08/11/t...ion-cut-rates/

I dont know if i agree. Especially with new president elected.

don't be FOOLed...OBVIOUSLY, there is nothing to do with the ELECTION....
the emerging markets were up

Man this pair really goes to extremes eh? crazy jumps...

SURE DOES but the sell swaps are great if you can get it high I have a permant sell on order 2.27 , 2.25 ,2.19

How big's the sell swap on $10 lot? I missed the up move recently to sell… was a screaming sell up there and came down real hard…. look forward to swinging any big up moves short in that case

USD/RUB has nice swap too.. looking for a very long term short there in coming months

Time to ride her down from here… but she's crazy and may go nuts to upside

well I have sells lets dance

Had a feeling they were about to do that.

Added here… will probably add if it goes up more.. but will try to manage it well. never know with this crazy pair.


Do think it will move down nicely from here in coming days though…

Decent run up. Hoping it finds some resistance at last weeks high(sooner hopefully)

Forming an engulfing bar on hourly potentially. Well see.

Swaps are really nice on this eh? $80 for every lot…. that's huge. Wednesdays 3x swap I believe…. so that's $560 a week for a $10/pip position… huge. Tough to pass up on that. If only I got in short last week near those highs.. was a great opportunity. Now we're pretty high again though..

YUPPPPPP great swaps mate so put in forward orders at the top on a day chart you cant go wrong

someone here?
i would like to short USD/TRY @2.1650 while long USD/ZAR @10.5890,
is anyone interested in that?

Back from short vacation and resuming information
Ukraine: Government is progressing towards regaining control over south eastern Gombass region but Friday evening panic on the markets due to confusion between night bombing by Ukrainian of a column of trucks and tanks crossing the border to support the Gombass rebels while negotiations were still in progress for the control of the +/- 250 trucks of foods to be transferred from Russia to Ukraine (apparently an agreement has been reached yesterday?) In fact the Russians made a statement that lead to believe that Ukraine had attacked militarily the humanitarian convoy while in Russia and all markets and FX went bazurk. Presently the conflict has generated over 2000 dead and over 4000 wounded (cumulative on both side) following UNO estimates ((in four months). It is expected that Lugansk should fall in Ukrainian hands this week and Donetsk within three weeks) ! Gombass rebels still refusing a cease fire! For people interested in understanding the logic of Putin politics there is an article of Moscow time rater interesting. But for EU, we have not yet seen the end of the conflict and the risk of an embrasement is still there as shown by the attempt of Putin to send further arms and ammunitions last Friday. Fighting was heavy during the week end and humanitarian convoy has not yet moved an inch so far! The Russian would still like to obtain from Ukraine a commitment not to join NATO, to grant a quasi-complete autonomy to Gombass region to allow it to link economically to USSR and to refrain from joining EU!
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...ne/504839.html



Israel The pursuing of the Gaza invasion has generated now over 2000 dead also, of which 70% woman and children! Also over 5000 wounded! For Israel, there has been to many Booboo such as bombing UNO refugees buildings or Hospitals. The cease fire of last Sunday has been prolonged but the key issues remains: the security of the Israel borders, the exchange of prisoners and the opening of the Gaza blocus (port and airport) With Netanyahu in command it is doubtful that an agreement can be reached. What will be next?

Thus the situation of the Turkish Lira remains solidly affected by the geopolitical situation with the Ukrainian conflict as well as the Baghdadi invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan which presents many risks for Turkey! EU has now decided to supply arms to the Peshmergas. Volume of displaced persons in Iraq and Syrian Kurdistan amounts now 1.200.000 people and UNO and EU do not follow the new daily volume despite lots of financial and logistics efforts and Mossoul Dam recuperated this night.

Thus the value of the lira at 12,16 may still fluctuates widely depending the reading of these geopolitical risks but the objective of Scotty to reach 2,15 by mid-august has been achieved but not necessarily for technical or economic reasons…!

Worth noting that last week the Zar abandoned the symmetry with the Turkish lira coming down from 10,80 to 10,55

Ukraine: Negotiations yesterday brought no progress on cease fire! The Russian even claimed no support on negotiations unless cease fire is agreed with Rebels in arms and Ukraine army retreating from Dombass territory! This night the Rebels shoot with missiles Grad a convoy of civilian flying the combat zone with large casualties. Angela Merkel is so frustrated at the Russian position denying everything, even the strongest evidence that She has decided to go to Ukraine by end of the week to support local government and analyses humanitarian (and military) needs.

The situation in Iraq is very delicate for Turkey because while de Peshmergas begin the regain grounds in Mossoul area (thanks to air support from US) the fact that they are now better armed create a lot of preoccupations in Turkey because the old antagonism between the Kurds and the Turks. This combined to the fact that rates could rise in the US sooner than expected, that the European markets should not increase much more in the weeks to come and that the lira should continue to devaluate (or the risk thereof) (particularly if the rumors of declining rates in Turkey are confirmed) generate also a flux of return of transfers from Turkey

hi everyone
i would like to trade this chart because it has a good volatility
but first from where i will know the fundemental analysis of the turkish currency
i know that link provide the economic statics
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

but where are the economic breaking news and statments of the turkish centarl bank manager and its members and their press conferences and the economic atricles generally like the news page of our great forexfacotry website
it is not only the statics that move the chart
please someone answer me

hi , I am in the same boat as you I trade zar and try I Google the news for those country's on a daily basis because I cant find a dedicated news for them

thanks ausi for reply but can you give me a link to google news that you mention

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/indicators

you can navigate between news/calender etc on the right side for each country.