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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,541
  • Aug 12, 2014 2:32am Aug 12, 2014 2:32am
Quoting fxmir
USDJPY trend line break and retest with pin bar time to long. {image}
fxmir, i don't think we are going there anytime soon at least not before the October FOMC meetings. Plus now the geopolitical risk from Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine, dollar future is uncertain.

The pin bar was on the day US called air strikes on Iraq, If it's me, i would think twice use it as a triggering signal bar.
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  • #47,542
  • Aug 12, 2014 2:35am Aug 12, 2014 2:35am
Quoting usdjpy1234
I think there is no right answer which direction USDJPY go at least in this month. USDJPY is now in control of Japanese government. Japanese government try to support USDJPY above 101.00 so that many traders are in long position without stop loss, at same time short traders also cant take profit as well...therefore USDJPY option LONG become stuck. this is why USDJPY volatility is very low now. In this situation, its easy to guess how tough JPY go weaken against USD. It might be much better for Japanese government or GPIF to move USDJPY up after...
I would suggest you pay attention to when Fed is going to finish its QE. From that day on, we would expect when Fed is going to raise the interest. Tackle down these two subjects, you would get a much better idea where the direction is going to be for UJ.
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  • #47,543
  • Aug 12, 2014 2:44am Aug 12, 2014 2:44am
Quoting fxmir
USDJPY trend line break and retest with pin bar time to long. {image}
.
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  • #47,544
  • Aug 12, 2014 2:54am Aug 12, 2014 2:54am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I would suggest you pay attention to when Fed is going to finish its QE. From that day on, we would expect when Fed is going to raise the interest. Tackle down these two subjects, you would get a much better idea where the direction is going to be for UJ.
Fed raise the interest, which means US stocks going down. but Fed will not ignore US stock big fall in this situation. then who buy and support US bonds instead of Fed? thats Japanese GPIF, shifting their portfolio. US government cant make a complaint even if JPY go weaken against USD because GPIF support US bonds) . Ofcourse this is one of scenarios and it might be wrong. but as long as Abenomics continues, they try to raise stocks UP and weaken JPY against USD. For Abenomics, Stock price is everything because they have no other secret weapons))
  • #47,545
  • Aug 12, 2014 3:05am Aug 12, 2014 3:05am
Quoting usdjpy1234
{quote} Fed raise the interest, which means US stocks going down. but Fed will not ignore US stock big fall in this situation. then who buy and support US bonds instead of Fed? thats Japanese GPIF, shifting their portfolio. US government cant make a complaint even if JPY go weaken against USD because GPIF support US bonds) . Ofcourse this is one of scenarios and it might be wrong. but as long as Abenomics continues, they try to raise stocks UP and weaken JPY against USD. For Abenomics, Stock price is everything because they have no other secret...
I am not saying your JP analysis is incorrect, it's just when it comes to trading UJ, we put a lot more weight on dollar than yen. As for dollar, as now, QE exit and rate hike.

It's fine that you probably like to dig a little more into the Yen side, but for me, I don't pay too much attention on it other than Yen needs to be lowered since its inflation is hitting record high.
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  • #47,546
  • Aug 12, 2014 3:43am Aug 12, 2014 3:43am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I am not saying your JP analysis is incorrect, it's just when it comes to trading UJ, we put a lot more weight on dollar than yen. As for dollar, as now, QE exit and rate hike. It's fine that you probably like to dig a little more into the Yen side, but for me, I don't pay too much attention on it other than Yen needs to be lowered since its inflation is hitting record high.
I agree with your earlier post regarding the effects of ending QE, and the subsequent wait for increase in rates.
However if you just said that Japan is starting to experience inflation then I do not see that as a problem for Abe, that is just what he wanted.

I also believe that Japan would like to see UJ at something like 110. The range from about here, 102, to 125 has been the norm for previous years and that kind of range would encourage more manufacturers to bring their operations onshore. Those trading the monthly chart might be interested, but the rest of us....

I wonder if Soros has a new short-Yen position.
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  • #47,547
  • Aug 12, 2014 4:02am Aug 12, 2014 4:02am
Quoting Exodus
However if you just said that Japan is starting to experience inflation then I do not see that as a problem for Abe, that is just what he wanted.
Hi Exodus, You are right, thanks for the catch. I almost forgot Abe wanted yen at high inflation. I must mixed it up with its current account numbers. but anyway, like i said above, I do not care so much in Yen at this moment especially when QE exit is projected in 2 months and follow by the rate decision. These are the only two things I concerned about for UJ. I also believe if there is nothing too major surprise out of Yen, dollar would stay within the current 101-103 range till its (QE and rate) future is clear.

At current pace with the data we had in the past couple weeks, most believed QE will exit on schedule.
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  • #47,548
  • Aug 12, 2014 4:16am Aug 12, 2014 4:16am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I am not saying your JP analysis is incorrect, it's just when it comes to trading UJ, we put a lot more weight on dollar than yen. As for dollar, as now, QE exit and rate hike. It's fine that you probably like to dig a little more into the Yen side, but for me, I don't pay too much attention on it other than Yen needs to be lowered since its inflation is hitting record high.
yes...I worry about the high inflation. what Abe doing is to make rich plp more rich by stock dividends etc and leave normal and poor plp as they are.
  • #47,549
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:07am Aug 12, 2014 5:07am
Tomorrow will be key as the deciding factor whether Abenomics has succeed or failed or met their expectations after the implementation of sales tax.
  • #47,550
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:22am Aug 12, 2014 5:22am
IMO, UJ like some other currency pairs is in no man's land. I will wait with pending short near PRZ @102.65

Green pips to all

PS. Its ok to laugh at my crudely drawn harmonic patterns. I crave negative attention
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  • #47,551
  • Aug 12, 2014 7:25am Aug 12, 2014 7:25am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I am not saying your JP analysis is incorrect, it's just when it comes to trading UJ, we put a lot more weight on dollar than yen. As for dollar, as now, QE exit and rate hike. It's fine that you probably like to dig a little more into the Yen side, but for me, I don't pay too much attention on it other than Yen needs to be lowered since its inflation is hitting record high.
I think that you're missing half of the picture here, one of the main reasons the pair has been stuck in a tight range is that the BoJ has failed to deliver additional QE as expected by October and the Bankīs rhetoric has not signaled the expected measures according to recent worse data, measures which obviously should lead to weaken the JPY; Kuroda is just saving bullets to keep raising Exports, Growth and also Inflation. As said by Usdjpy1234 Japanīs GPIFs are going to have a relative important role in the upcoming months.
  • #47,552
  • Aug 12, 2014 7:31am Aug 12, 2014 7:31am
USDJPY likely to re-test 102 levels.
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  • #47,553
  • Aug 12, 2014 7:52am Aug 12, 2014 7:52am
Quoting Fx_Anil
USDJPY likely to re-test 102 levels. {image}
then shoot down below 102
  • #47,554
  • Aug 12, 2014 8:13am Aug 12, 2014 8:13am
Quoting sergeibell
{quote} I think that you're missing half of the picture here, one of the main reasons the pair has been stuck in a tight range is that the BoJ has failed to deliver additional QE as expected by October and the Bankīs rhetoric has not signaled the expected measures according to recent worse data, measures which obviously should lead to weaken the JPY; Kuroda is just saving bullets to keep raising Exports, Growth and also Inflation. As said by Usdjpy1234 Japanīs GPIFs are going to have a relative important role in the upcoming months.
My understanding is that BoJ was never going to do any more or any different before October.
October is the decision point at which a change to the current policy may occur.

I am really fed up with these tight ranges.....
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  • #47,555
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:41am Aug 12, 2014 9:41am
My crystal ball is saying USD JPY will be below 101.500 in the next 24 hours
  • #47,556
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:48am Aug 12, 2014 9:48am
Quoting yeniful
My crystal ball is saying USD JPY will be below 101.500 in the next 24 hours
Good luck to you.....

it will take another Iraq event to drop the pair......I maybe wrong.
  • #47,557
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:13am Aug 12, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} My understanding is that BoJ was never going to do any more or any different before October. October is the decision point at which a change to the current policy may occur. I am really fed up with these tight ranges.....
I really like them, support and resistances work great!, Yes October should be the turning point but it seems that Kurodaīs rhetoric is just neutral and is delaying additional measures. I chose the wrong wrongs previously .."BoJ WILL fail to deliver additional measures in October"..
  • #47,558
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:23am Aug 12, 2014 10:23am
short 102.21 target 99x until the end of the month sl 102.4
  • #47,559
  • Edited 1:08pm Aug 12, 2014 12:54pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting sergeibell
one of the main reasons the pair has been stuck in a tight range is that the BoJ has failed to deliver additional QE as expected by October and the Bankīs rhetoric has not signaled the expected measures according to recent worse data, measures which obviously should lead to weaken the JPY; Kuroda is just saving bullets to keep raising Exports, Growth and also Inflation. As said by Usdjpy1234 Japanīs GPIFs are going to have a relative important role in the upcoming months.
sergeibell, everyone titled to their own option. That's fine.
In trading UJ pair, I weight a lot more on dollar than Yen and have good success rate. If you favor more in Yen, I'd say you go for it.
BTW, when you say one of the "main" reason, how much is "main" in terms of percentage? 10%? 50%? 80%?

Now, in terms of how the monetary policies from both Dollar and Yen in reaction to USDJPY, someone just have to knock me out silly to make me believe the 26-week range in UJ has more to do with Yen than Dollar.
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  • #47,560
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:40pm Aug 12, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting thomaspaine
short 102.21 target 99x until the end of the month sl 102.4
Right play my man!
It's in that 102.100 to 102.350 range but its in a downward movement the last 12 days so its the right move. stick with the trend!
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