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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,521
  • Aug 11, 2014 3:18am Aug 11, 2014 3:18am
Quoting jimmywong
{image}
Not sure what to make of your chart. However I will say that the market will assess the success (or lack thereof) of the JG stimulus and make a guess at what policy will replace the expired one in March 2016. Prior to that there will be noises from JG indicating a likely path.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,522
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:16am Aug 11, 2014 4:16am
It looks like I am one of the few shorts on this pair...

Markets might be hoping for the best with Russia/Ukraine... I am not

I will see you all around 98.50
  • #47,523
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:24am Aug 11, 2014 4:24am
It looks like I am one of the few longs on this pair...

Markets might be hoping for the best with Russia/Ukraine... I am

I will see you all around 103.80
trade safe
  • #47,524
  • Aug 11, 2014 8:22am Aug 11, 2014 8:22am
I'm short on yen......The dollar is losing it's strength against the yen. In Forex I stick with the trend until a complete reversal.
  • #47,525
  • Aug 11, 2014 8:23am Aug 11, 2014 8:23am
Quoting Trader221
It looks like I am one of the few shorts on this pair... Markets might be hoping for the best with Russia/Ukraine... I am not I will see you all around 98.50
Actually you are about 1 in millions of people who are short on the yen in the world.
In Forex more than 75-90% of people lose......if the majority is long and the trend is downwards I stick always with the trend even if the majority are the reverse.

There's a reason why the statistic says 75-90% of traders in forex lose money. They think they can outsmart and outplay the trends when they should just relax for a minute and not be trigger happy. Look at all the people who were shorting post 2008 in the stock market....they missed out on the biggest bull market and tons of profit.

The biggest lesson I have learned in any trading is stick with the trend until a complete reversal. Long term it's the right play
  • #47,526
  • Aug 11, 2014 8:34am Aug 11, 2014 8:34am
Quoting yeniful
{quote} Actually you are about 1 in millions of people who are short on the yen in the world. In Forex more than 75-90% of people lose......if the majority is long and the trend is downwards I stick always with the trend even if the majority are the reverse. There's a reason why the statistic says 75-90% of traders in forex lose money. They think they can outsmart and outplay the trends when they should just relax for a minute and not be trigger happy. Look at all the people who were shorting post 2008 in the stock market....they missed out on the...
Shorting at this level is like showing the middle finger to BOJ. Be very careful.
  • #47,527
  • Aug 11, 2014 8:50am Aug 11, 2014 8:50am
YenUSD short or USDYen short? What are you talking about?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #47,528
  • Aug 11, 2014 8:53am Aug 11, 2014 8:53am
Quoting mima
YenUSD short or USDYen short? What are you talking about?
Shorting UJ
  • #47,529
  • Aug 11, 2014 9:11am Aug 11, 2014 9:11am
I'm short usd/jpy at 101.900 and 102.000.

The yen has been stronger than the us dollar since July 31.
Every 2 trading days since July 31 has seen a 30+ pip drop
There has been no indication of a rise since 6 months ago.

I follow the trends. USD/JPY keeps hitting resistance and dropping. Until it breaks through and reverses the current trend I'm short
  • #47,530
  • Aug 11, 2014 10:28am Aug 11, 2014 10:28am
Quoting yeniful
I'm short usd/jpy at 101.900 and 102.000. The yen has been stronger than the us dollar since July 31. Every 2 trading days since July 31 has seen a 30+ pip drop There has been no indication of a rise since 6 months ago. I follow the trends. USD/JPY keeps hitting resistance and dropping. Until it breaks through and reverses the current trend I'm short
It's been rising for 3 days now since friday
  • #47,531
  • Aug 11, 2014 10:31am Aug 11, 2014 10:31am
I think there is no right answer which direction USDJPY go at least in this month. USDJPY is now in control of Japanese government. Japanese government try to support USDJPY above 101.00 so that many traders are in long position without stop loss, at same time short traders also cant take profit as well...therefore USDJPY option LONG become stuck. this is why USDJPY volatility is very low now. In this situation, its easy to guess how tough JPY go weaken against USD. It might be much better for Japanese government or GPIF to move USDJPY up after USDJPY go down under 100 once. however hedge funds has no guts to fight with Japanese government in this situation.
  • #47,532
  • Aug 11, 2014 10:42am Aug 11, 2014 10:42am
i would share my TA why i long when UJ hit 103.80... LOL

and losing is part of the game.
trade safe
  • #47,533
  • Aug 11, 2014 10:56am Aug 11, 2014 10:56am
In HTF UJ is kind of flat ..can go either direction...What will determine direction is hard to say (at least for me) ...maybe ukraine/russia , maybe Iraq, Japan...something else...Of course I can be wrong.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #47,534
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:30pm Aug 11, 2014 2:30pm
lol, you guys must confuse the shit out of eachother.
lowest draw down possible please.
  • #47,535
  • Aug 11, 2014 3:50pm Aug 11, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting ehrek
lol, you guys must confuse the shit out of eachother.
  • #47,536
  • Aug 11, 2014 6:19pm Aug 11, 2014 6:19pm
The US Dollar is coming under tight scrutiny. 10 year notes are affecting the strength of the us dollar vs the major currencies.
The last 10 trading days of the major currencies have gained against the US Dollar.
RSI charts are at a peak and there is no long(weakening) sign for the yen right now

I agree with this article and it might change your view on currencies vs the us dollar over the next few months:
http://www.forex.com/post?SDN=e4c41e...7-2ee29261d638
  • #47,537
  • Aug 11, 2014 6:39pm Aug 11, 2014 6:39pm
Non Comm spec positioning for the Yen below (Yen inversed)

Looks stale to me.

I think it's a case of the USD/JPY HAS to go up to confirm that consensus and if it doesn't there will obviously be fireworks.

Obvious trigger points on the downside are 101.90 and 101.00
Attached Image
  • #47,538
  • Aug 11, 2014 11:29pm Aug 11, 2014 11:29pm
Beware when going to Long USDJPY now, as it might do a retest and trade back to its previous support level of 101.57 area. if price unable to close higher than 102.32 in a daily chart, I am preparing to short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 120814.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #47,539
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:41am Aug 12, 2014 1:41am
I am trying to decide whether 102.40 is a magnet or resistance.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,540
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:47am Aug 12, 2014 1:47am
USDJPY trend line break and retest with pin bar time to long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.jpg Size: 98 KB
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