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  • #915,901
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:00am Aug 11, 2014 4:00am
Quoting MrNow
{quote} Teased?
5M bar says so...got to 83
  • #915,902
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:01am Aug 11, 2014 4:01am
if not in. i try to wait for bounces like intraday 3407/14.. not that it will bounce.. i just dont like much drawdown. depending on 3382/83 allowance
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #915,903
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:02am Aug 11, 2014 4:02am
Quoting MrNow
{quote} I am trying to short it against the kiwi and the euro, both stop orders.

not normally interested in Mondays, just trying to get a few pips, she has potential is 2nd attempt on her from todays open, right now she is flirting with fridays open, this hourly close could prove important bearish engulfing 1hr,

eu is standard daily / weekly open trade was going to close it 6hrs of nada not unusual for asia pacific session but considering defending 34, she was worth a try, might turn out ok
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #915,904
  • Edited 4:15am Aug 11, 2014 4:03am | Edited 4:15am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hi Wael, Just wanted to comment on that channel..... what is the criteria? it doesn't make sense.
Hi vlady

channel Depends on period separators
for the time frame one hour the red channel for yesterday and the blue for the day before yesterday
from one hour to daily i deal them as a group of gears if the price on daily will be up on the one our and four hour will take some changes until be up on daily
  • #915,905
  • Edited 4:24am Aug 11, 2014 4:10am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} The way usdx looks it should be very possible. The breakout of the wedge did not get bear started as it should. Could it be a fakeout and usdx just goes higher? that will fook with a lot of ppl. {image}
not a fake out.. most moves retrace, not always. this usd bull is strong and proving it with the shallow retraces since eu 3992. the bull eu setup for 345x was just 120 pips, and so for, even 120 after 600 is hard to do.. my st target has 3289 or more. this is depending on 3312/25 allowing it. these are in important positions to target 3102. like 81.59 is on the usdx... btw 3444 is also a 3102 #... as is 3325... if you take the mid point of those, you end up with 3383.5+-.
if you take that mid attraction or any attraction number.. and a recent/fresh high or low. before its crossed it, depending on time frame. many times you can count the chain links to see how far a dog can run. since it broke 3383.5 friday, we can see that run is about = to the high. if we break 3444. we already know how long the chain is.. so we pay attention when the chain is stretched. on the inside of these i find numbers like 3407.. but know there is some more chain close to 3444... if one did some math, one could see these are all in sequence of 3102/3992... or random numbers to the ones who frequent ff less or not at all.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #915,906
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:10am Aug 11, 2014 4:10am
REVISED probabilities puts 1.3434 at 2%. That means we may not see it again today or morrow!!!

I am not forcing anyone to follow me just like you asked me not to. I am just doing my thing; calling 1.3343 and below!
  • #915,907
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:12am Aug 11, 2014 4:12am
Quoting Strawbale
{quote} ok mr.. let me state this in another way i think you understand.. I think there is a "problem" at 1.3343 and price will aggressively try to correct it by tomorrow.. speaking eurusdd language cos you seem you understand that pretty well and you dont ask for reasoning
Well firstly, TIME was already a contentious issue when making these kinds of predictions. I have no problem with price - which can be validated by a variety of means. When you say Tomorrow as opposed to Today, then it's either you know something - which on public post will attract the appropriate question of "WHY" - OR you are just speculating or agreeing with Eurusdd.

Your language suggests I am attacking you when all I want is clarification. Since you relate it to Eurusdd's calls, I don't ask Eurusdd for an explanation because he already said it's probability based. He didn't mention time, but he aludes to the problem being corrected quickly - kind of implies today but no certainty. Not a problem.

I personally don't expect 3343 to be hit today because of low volatility, Aug holidays and a perception of slight easing of the Ukranian situation... your reasons?Stating there is a "problem" means you....agree with Eurusdd. Fine. Reasons for tomorrow???...... News?

See what I mean?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #915,908
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:12am Aug 11, 2014 4:12am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} not normally interested in Mondays, just trying to get a few pips, she has potential is 2nd attempt on her from todays open, right now she is flirting with fridays open, this hourly close could prove important bearish engulfing 1hr, eu is standard daily / weekly open trade was going to close it 6hrs of nada not unusual for asia pacific session but considering defending 34, she was worth a try, might turn out ok
ok..

On AN, I got an inside green bar after a bearish trend bar, below the low of the inside bar I am interested...

For EA I have a small bar after a bull trend bar, above the small bar I am interested......

For EU I am trying to get 10 pips out of it, prices are hovering between 84-90.....I am just HERE, feeling the pulse....they having a good fight...a bit slow...but can move quickly any time....I have time...
  • #915,909
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:15am Aug 11, 2014 4:15am
Quoting Eurusdd
Never lost three trades in a row!!! Max SL = 10 pips. 1ST ATTEMPT!!!! SELL EURUSD within 5pips(+spread) of 1.33949 during the next 5mins. Profit is left to you. I am a high-frequency-trader and anything from 1pip to 100pips is ok for me!
Thanks Eurusdd, i pay attention to your call today .... and have booked some pips profit already ... Will see another opportunity at US open / CAD news ...
  • #915,910
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:18am Aug 11, 2014 4:18am
Quoting wael0102003
{quote} Hi vlady channel Depends on period separators for the time frame one hour the red channel for yesterday and the blue for the day before yesterday
Ok, that makes more sense. So they're not necessarily trendlines against the Daily but composites of the 1H.
So you're looking for a countertrend move to finish at the black midline of blue which could range from anywhere between 3450 to 3430 in the next 1-5 days?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #915,911
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:24am Aug 11, 2014 4:24am
eurusd JUST created a 2nd degree error. So, very soon one of the following must happen! She will push down or NEVER go above 1.3400 again till she corrects the error!!!
  • #915,912
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:25am Aug 11, 2014 4:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not a fake out.. most moves retrace, not always. this usd bull is strong and proving it with the shallow retraces since eu 3992. the bull eu setup for 345x was just 120 pips, and so for, even 120 after 600 is hard to do.. my st target has 3289 or more. this is depending on 3312/25 allowing it. these are in important positions to target 3102. like 81.59 is on the usdx
But the outbreak was already tested, failed to go lower after that (more than a couple of pips) and is now rising. Giving us a greater probability that it will return inside the wedge and even make a HH. If it faked the break down it usually means higher highs. And with a weak EURUSD retrace i'm looking at 3325 and down, backed by bullish usdx
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I don't even have a cool signature
  • #915,913
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:28am Aug 11, 2014 4:28am
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} But the outbreak was already tested, failed to go lower after that (more than a couple of pips) and is now rising. Giving us a greater probability that it will return inside the wedge and even make a HH. If it faked the break down it usually means higher highs. And with a weak EURUSD retrace i'm looking at 3325 and down, backed by bullish usdx {image}
Hmm.. liking that, mate. But I guess, if it closes above that retest price for a HH.... and ideally retest the last swing high 81.70ish and bounce off your lower wedge line.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #915,914
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:32am Aug 11, 2014 4:32am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hmm.. liking that, mate. But I guess, if it closes above that retest price for a HH.... and ideally retest the last swing high 81.70ish and bounce off your lower wedge line.
nice!
  • #915,915
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:33am Aug 11, 2014 4:33am
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} But the outbreak was already tested, failed to go lower after that (more than a couple of pips) and is now rising. Giving us a greater probability that it will return inside the wedge and even make a HH. If it faked the break down it usually means higher highs. And with a weak EURUSD retrace i'm looking at 3325 and down, backed by bullish usdx {image}
the usdx break out in 2013 makes me seek 90.58... 81.59 is just 1/4 of whats indicated. this move is strong.. the usdx has already done the normal retraces. the eu has not, but it may not need too. since the usdx is weighted mostly with the euro. on the other hand the eu is not moving like other usd pairs .. those may be the better trades,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #915,916
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:35am Aug 11, 2014 4:35am
the price of the problem was 1.3386-87 eurusdd?
Don't use both feet to test the depth of the river
  • #915,917
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:36am Aug 11, 2014 4:36am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hmm.. liking that, mate. But I guess, if it closes above that retest price for a HH.... and ideally retest the last swing high 81.70ish and bounce off your lower wedge line.
God.. I need to be reminded that nothing goes in staight lines, how newbie-ish do i feel now! . Yes you are right, we will test and retest levels, ofcourse we wont go straight, and firstly we need to actually get back into the wedge. It's not that simple either i guess, but the first point. Could be the 3375 level as gator had friday.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #915,918
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:37am Aug 11, 2014 4:37am
Quoting Strawbale
the price of the problem was 1.3386-87 eurusdd?
The kind of problem correction i showed you people on this forum belongs to the third class(3rd degree). 2nd degree contradictions, show direction and momentum!! I did not show you that!
  • #915,919
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:41am Aug 11, 2014 4:41am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote}The kind of problem correction i showed you people on this forum belongs to the third class(3rd degree). 2nd degree contradictions, show direction and momentum!! I did not show you that!
cool!
Don't use both feet to test the depth of the river
  • #915,920
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:46am Aug 11, 2014 4:46am
LAST probabilities update!!!
REVISED Price movement and closing probabilities going forward.!!!

1.3434 = 0.0001

1.33980 = 0.1

1.33872 = 1.00

1.33785 = 0.91

1.33644 = 0.86

What do these numbers mean?
At the time the numbers were calculated the current price always has probability 1. To have an idea of where price will go, One has to look at other price levels above or below the current one. It is clear that price levels below 1.33872 have higher probabilities. Therefore, I will call DOWN for EURUSD going forward.

I am out!!!
Old probabilities

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