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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,501
  • Aug 8, 2014 12:03pm Aug 8, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote} And yet, the USD/JPY is not going down with them, but rising somewhat still. To me it means it's a good long still.
Indeed it is a good long however is worth noting that treasuries are a heavy burden for the USD right now despite equities and commodities reaction as told by san99.
  • #47,502
  • Aug 8, 2014 2:14pm Aug 8, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting sergeibell
{quote} Indeed it is a good long however is worth noting that treasuries are a heavy burden for the USD right now despite equities and commodities reaction as told by san99.
Yes it was an eye-opener for me that in actuality US treasury yields remained subdued for longer than the time it took for the equities futures and the commodities to recover/snap back. U/J continues to confound. There was that semi-"flash crash" on Wednesday, but then Thursday Asian session pushed it back up to 102.40, at one point in a matter of minutes. But since then it drifted back to below 102.25 followed by yesterday's geopolitical pressure knocking it back down to the crash level of Wednesday. It can't break above 103 still, despite many banks' forecasts calling for 105-110 by year's end! Fed won't be helping it much I feel since the tone is overall dovish for US rates still. I would be very surprised if job growth continues in 200K+ range for several more months. But I don't believe BOJ wants strong yen, especially as export levels are a cause for concern. And yet, Yen is a safe haven. Go figure!
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  • #47,503
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:18pm Aug 9, 2014 12:18pm
it has been said that Yen weaken against USD since beginning this year, expecting BOJ intervension. it didnt happen! Now that many traders say GPIF shifting their portfolio to equity and its supposed Yen weaken again. However USDJPY still up and down being riskon/off. I changed my trading style from swing core long to daytrading long for this few months. if assuming Yen weaken sooner or later, this week UJ drop seems good timing to put long as core posion. but im still not sure how serious GPIF can weaken Yen against USD in this geopolitics risk..
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  • #47,504
  • Aug 10, 2014 1:50pm Aug 10, 2014 1:50pm
one look at the US10y yields and I'm ready for buying UJ in Monday :
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"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #47,505
  • Aug 10, 2014 8:14pm Aug 10, 2014 8:14pm
Quoting bikov
one look at the US10y yields and I'm ready for buying UJ in Monday : {image}
Indeed this week would be a nice long, also since Ukraine crisis is starting to fade ´cause Russia finished drills on the frontier. However my technicals dont set up for a Long just yet, I would wait for the 101,60 but I think it would hardly go to that price in the near term.
  • #47,506
  • Aug 10, 2014 8:27pm Aug 10, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting san99
{quote} Yes it was an eye-opener for me that in actuality US treasury yields remained subdued for longer than the time it took for the equities futures and the commodities to recover/snap back. U/J continues to confound. There was that semi-"flash crash" on Wednesday, but then Thursday Asian session pushed it back up to 102.40, at one point in a matter of minutes. But since then it drifted back to below 102.25 followed by yesterday's geopolitical pressure knocking it back down to the crash level of Wednesday. It can't break above 103 still, despite...
Yes, Fed is still dovish but pressure will start mounting since Data has been positive and rate Hikes are expected as of Q2 2015, so their tone I think would be slightly hawkish, but with ultra Dovish Yellen nothing is for sure; I read a very good analysis somewhere that prior to 6 months of raising rates the market begins adjusting to the Fed´s policy. I agree with Major Banks forecasts around 105 since the BoJ is on hold for more quantitative easing and indeed their Trade balance has not been as good as expected specially since Tax adjustments.
  • #47,507
  • Aug 10, 2014 8:31pm Aug 10, 2014 8:31pm
Yen has been going down now for a week.......long is not the play right now
  • #47,508
  • Aug 10, 2014 9:10pm Aug 10, 2014 9:10pm
buy da U/J now if you wanna make money
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  • #47,509
  • Aug 10, 2014 9:12pm Aug 10, 2014 9:12pm
10 Year US Treasuries starting to sell off.. USD/JPY preparing for another assault on 103 imo
  • #47,510
  • Aug 10, 2014 9:16pm Aug 10, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting teddybomber
10 Year US Treasuries starting to sell off.. USD/JPY preparing for another assault on 103 imo
Yeah I agree, although 103 is a bit high to start off this week... I'm gonna go with 102.60 area for now as my best guess, but we'll see.
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  • #47,511
  • Aug 10, 2014 9:18pm Aug 10, 2014 9:18pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Yeah I agree, although 103 is a bit high to start off this week... I'm gonna go with 102.60 area for now as my best guess, but we'll see.
Oh I would say by 6 to 10 AM EST tomorrow it could be around 102.40 to 102.60. 103 was more of a target it could try again for a little later in the week, not quite a "day trade" though.
  • #47,512
  • Aug 10, 2014 9:38pm Aug 10, 2014 9:38pm
Daily Chart
Attached Image
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #47,513
  • Aug 10, 2014 10:02pm Aug 10, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting NuNix
Daily Chart {image}
Daily chart is too wide of a range to make decisions regarding the beginning of this week, imo.

I'm looking at 5-min and 15-min charts. Notice how U/J could barely even fill the gap it created this weekend...

I am not speaking to you in particular, but rather anyone who is reading this. Your post just happened to be the one I respond to.

I am still bullish on this pair, along with bullish AUD/USD and NZD/JPY.

PS: I agree that 102.20 is an important level, but I am confident it will break to the upside because if it falls any lower there is just too much support still sitting at 102.00. And I doubt it will even test that.
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  • #47,514
  • Aug 10, 2014 10:24pm Aug 10, 2014 10:24pm
5 minute chart
too early?

Where is your intraday buying zone?
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Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #47,515
  • Edited 10:51pm Aug 10, 2014 10:40pm | Edited 10:51pm
Quoting NuNix
5 minute chart too early? Where is your intraday buying zone? {image}
Yes Nunix, now is the perfect time to get into the trade if you're not already.

Intraday buying zone? I don't know. If I had to say something, I guess it would be between 102 and 102.15.

The red circle is important and should be noted after ANY GAP. I suppose this would be the "buy zone" if there had to be one at all.

Of course, I could be wrong (disclaimer, LOL). But I put my money where my mouth is.
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  • #47,516
  • Aug 11, 2014 12:35am Aug 11, 2014 12:35am
1. a few hedge funds have summer holidays this week. averall their performance have been bad this year so they closed some parts of long postions before the summer holidays.
2. Redemption of US bonds in this week which is generally said USD weaken against JPY.
3. 4-6 GDP on 12th...forecast is really bad

from the above reason, I dont go long yet. Dip on buy.
  • #47,517
  • Aug 11, 2014 1:05am Aug 11, 2014 1:05am
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  • #47,518
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:27am Aug 11, 2014 2:27am
I'm selling USD/JPY on stop at 101.90, risk 30 ticks. Probably a different time frame from you bulls.
Every wound up market unwinds at some time and I wanna be short when it does!
All my stuff says sell.
  • #47,519
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:34am Aug 11, 2014 2:34am
Here is a nice S/R classic trade LONG
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #47,520
  • Aug 11, 2014 3:03am Aug 11, 2014 3:03am
yeh it was nice SR. I entered a probing long.
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