EUR/JPY

Being on vacation I shouldn't be sneaking down into the hotel computer room checking on my positions but it's a temptation too hard to resists sometimes. I'm putting a lot of weight on the monthly chart which seems to be following the fibo indicator nicely. the 23% test is in the 133.xx area and the 50% is around the 120.xx price range (look at my previous chart I put up). The monthly just started a transition downward indicated by the EMA so at this point there are no sureties that it will downtrend but it's looking good for that direction. I don't trade on the news of things so the 100-200 pips up and down don't have a lot of meaning. At least for the trade I'm in. This post is probably not so helpful for you with more short term trades--sorry.

The advantage of trend trading is that I don't have to stare at the computer all the time. I'll go back to day trading but I'm on vacation.

Bullish trend yesterday, closed at 136.80. If the price broke the top of the range for both Wednesday and Thursday, the market would more than likely head to the 138 level.

Even if it is going into a downtrend, you may well be right in the short term...

yummy

EURJPY swinging between 136.90 and 136.40. Either side breakout can give meaningful volatility. I support the JPY strength after Wednesday's release which can make the pair test 135.50 levels.

Good analysis, I agree with strength on Yen, let's wait and see on Wednesday.

Thanks for complements

Been waiting for the trend line break all day. Short at 136.70

Tried shorting EJ but just missed it by a couple pips. Maybe on the next bump. The ATR monthly for the last three months has had a range of only about 300 pips. This month will probably determine its direction. I also have positions in NU which both seem to be tracking nicely. My OHLC indicator for the monthly suggests a downturn but it's still in transition since the price range now is between the high and low. I'm betting my marbles on it's going down. We'll see...

EURJPY re-tests important support range. A break of 136.40 can call the pair to test 135.70 while the reversal, which is more likely can result the re-test of 136.95-137 level.

EJ heading towards ?

EJ - According to my OHLC and Bollinger Bands, and EMA (that's about all I use these days for trend spotting) these are the trends of the following charts:

As of 8/12/2014 PST am

The 5 min to 1 hour charts are strictly used for positioning--or scalping.
15 Min - UP
30 Min - UP
1 Hour - DOWN

*************

2 Hour - DOWN
3 Hour - DOWN
4 Hour - DOWN - 4 candles down
The Daily - DOWN - 4 candles down
Weekly - DOWN- This trend has continued since May.
Monthly - TRANSITION- if this goes into a downtrend, we are looking many months of trending down.

Fibo for:

2HR - Broke past the 50% and 23.6 % retracement so 0% is 135.70
3HR - Hit the 0% at 135.71 so will most likely retest
4HR - Same as 3HR
Daily - Same
Weekly - Has not reached the 50% at 132.44
Monthly - Has not reached the 50% at 119.90 - could be months or even a year or more.

With 136.50 level offered support, and JPY strength likely to continue maintaining downside pressure for the pair, if it breaks down this level I believe that there should be a “floor” at the 135 level.

Good call.

Short ...

Thank you

Early today, we had some important reading from Japan, Eurjpy has tested above current resistance level near 136.90-137 zone, but price closed at 136.90-137 level.

SO can we go down from here.... to 135 ?

A short is advisable as the pair fails to break above horizontal resistance line near 137.15, likely to re-test 136.40 level. However, a steep decline to sub-136 level isn't expected as both the economies, Japan and EU, don't have anything important for the day to release.

It looks like there will be a continuation down. So far I lost about 40 pips on the retrace. Still about 200 pips in the green. I'll stay in the game for another 20-30 pips but if there is a break on the upside, I'll cash in and call it a success.