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Trading Made Simple for Day Charts

  • #2,021
  • Jul 29, 2014 10:46am Jul 29, 2014 10:46am
Quoting Britpip7
Interesting watching the charts right now - many pairs are set up for reversals but have no price action - very small candles on the day charts, so entering is a complete gamble. In some cases it can pay off to switch to H4 to pick up the moves as they commence. AUD/NZD is a good example of PA momentum stalling and holding underneath a strong weekly S/R level, so looks to be a candidate if it follows traditional patters!!! But then what do I Know? Wait for the move to pick up momentum and run for while and then enter in the direction PA.
Hi BP7,

I am really so happy to see that you are posting again. Love the new charts and explanations.

Thanks, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #2,022
  • Jul 29, 2014 10:53am Jul 29, 2014 10:53am
With all of the Price Action moves in the past 2 weeks - NZD/JPY is worth reviewing

PA was moving higher while TDI was decreasing in strenght, so this gives you a TDI Bearish Divergence warning, which is telling you the next likely PA move is probably down.

There is a very strong APB reversal candle - change of colour and a textbook shape - strong body with wicks top and bottom.

PA breaks and closes below the recent Fractal Low as well as the EMA7.

TDI matches the PA move.

Great angle on the TSL and the EMA7 - While these are in agreement, then there is no reason to exit the trade. Add-ons can be taken as the PA moves lower.

The one hiccup is the pull back which gives a draw down of approx 90 pips, so here is a possible stop out. To mitigate pull backs I try to set my SL to a recent candle close / open - for this example it would mean leaving the SL @ BE for a while longer.

As usual, this is all hindsight training, but a good exercise to get your brain focused on entries and SL settings on longer trade runs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tdi - pa training chart.png Size: 49 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,023
  • Jul 29, 2014 10:55am Jul 29, 2014 10:55am
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Hi BP7, I am really so happy to see that you are posting again. Love the new charts and explanations. Thanks, AG
Nice to be back
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,024
  • Jul 29, 2014 11:53pm Jul 29, 2014 11:53pm
Quoting Britpip7
With all of the Price Action moves in the past 2 weeks - NZD/JPY is worth reviewing PA was moving higher while TDI was decreasing in strenght, so this gives you a TDI Bearish Divergence warning, which is telling you the next likely PA move is probably down. There is a very strong APB reversal candle - change of colour and a textbook shape - strong body with wicks top and bottom. PA breaks and closes below the recent Fractal Low as well as the EMA7. TDI matches the PA move. Great angle on the TSL and the EMA7 - While these are in agreement, then...

My analysis is that PA might reverse at 86.5 or 86.0 levels to the upside probably next week for a longer move. With TDI around 32 level a possible down move around this time wouldn't have enough steam.
  • #2,025
  • Jul 30, 2014 11:16am Jul 30, 2014 11:16am
Quoting nimsri
{quote} My analysis is that PA might reverse at 86.5 or 86.0 levels to the upside probably next week for a longer move. With TDI around 32 level a possible down move around this time wouldn't have enough steam.
nimsri,

No NZD news for the remander of the week, but lots of AUD news, so AUD/NZD will also be worth watching.

NZD/JPY has an engulfing candle forming, so if that hold through FOMC and the rest of the day, may be worth some attention, especially of price can close above 87.25
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,026
  • Jul 30, 2014 6:58pm Jul 30, 2014 6:58pm
longed NZ/JP.With TDI cross upwards: there's a confluence of MA 200 (green ).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYmicroDailyLatest.png Size: 32 KB
  • #2,027
  • Jul 30, 2014 8:34pm Jul 30, 2014 8:34pm
Quoting nimsri
longed NZ/JP.With TDI cross upwards: there's a confluence of MA 200 (green ).{image}
I'm with you on this one

I also have the following set to go:

AUD/NZD Short
GBP/AUD Long
EUR/AUD Long

This will be interesting heading into NFP!
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,028
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:38pm Jul 31, 2014 12:38pm
HI BP,

what server time you on now? with the GBPAUD are you waiting for the TSL to cross the 50 line ?
i too am watching this pair but on GMT ....
Nelly
  • #2,029
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:01pm Jul 31, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting Nellycopter
HI BP, what server time you on now? with the GBPAUD are you waiting for the TSL to cross the 50 line ? i too am watching this pair but on GMT .... Nelly
Nelly,

My day candle starts at 5pm Pacific, so 8 hours time difference
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,030
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:11pm Jul 31, 2014 1:11pm
thanks BP

on your server time what are you waiting for when you say 'set to go'
  • #2,031
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:14pm Jul 31, 2014 1:14pm
also also if i may ask BP - what would you say is your average draw down before things set off back in your direction ?
i know and understand you need balls of steel for the day charts - i have watched some of my recent day trades draw nearly to the point i gave in - just to watch them bounce back and pay me hansomly .....
  • #2,032
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:32pm Jul 31, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting Nellycopter
thanks BP on your server time what are you waiting for when you say 'set to go'
That would be the first 4 hours of the new day, so up to 9pm Pacific
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,033
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:38pm Jul 31, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting Nellycopter
also also if i may ask BP - what would you say is your average draw down before things set off back in your direction ? i know and understand you need balls of steel for the day charts - i have watched some of my recent day trades draw nearly to the point i gave in - just to watch them bounce back and pay me hansomly .....
One of the approaches is to use the ATR7 value. The approach from dcginc was to to set the initial SL to 2XATR7, so depending on the pair and its daily range, that could be 300pips, or swing high / swing low, whichever is the lower value. The worst DD I have seen is 150 - 175 pips. At this time it is usually close to stopping out, so leaving it to run is no real additional risk. The difficult aspect is when PA goes 80 pips down and sits there for 2 days! If you lose the signal / entry criteria completely, then it can be worthwhile to kill the trade and wait for the next set-up - difficult decision.

Typically if the price moves into profit and hits the TP1 level which will be 1XATR7, and then move TP2 to BE, there is a good probability for higher profits - at least worst case is TP1 = 1XATR7 and a TP2 @ BE.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,034
  • Aug 3, 2014 9:55pm Aug 3, 2014 9:55pm
Hi Britpip,
I was going through all the pages of this forum. And this is kind of revelation, should say.
I read somewhere you saying that if D and 4H TF's are not in synchronous, you will pass on the trade.
What if Signal is very strong on D TF, but over sold on 4H TF, what will you do? Check EG as an example ...
TIA, Aditya
  • #2,035
  • Aug 4, 2014 10:26am Aug 4, 2014 10:26am
Quoting adikashyap
Hi Britpip, I was going through all the pages of this forum. And this is kind of revelation, should say. I read somewhere you saying that if D and 4H TF's are not in synchronous, you will pass on the trade. What if Signal is very strong on D TF, but over sold on 4H TF, what will you do? Check EG as an example ... TIA, Aditya
If the Day chart is showing a strong cross, I will take the day signal - I rarely look on the H4 to confirm a Day chart entry. If using the H4 for signals and it goes against a strong Day trend, it is usually a pause in the trend and will then continue with the overall day trend.

This is not a pair that I watch, however, if you use a channel to show the trend, Day and H4 are together, as PA is pulling off of the top of the channel.

Strong hook on the H4 TDI with a corresponding PA off of the channel - it will be interesting to see if the H4 200ema has any effect in holding PA and setting a new support level - Wait for H4 TDI to cross / confirm

Day shows a lot of zones being set, so this may well be the end of the recent freefall and PA may settle to a 100pip range, especially with 0.8000 being a nice BRN.

the weekly chart shows that the next main support level is 160 pips away, so ne real interest there.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbph4 8-4-2014.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpdaily 8-4-2014.png Size: 48 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,036
  • Aug 4, 2014 10:34am Aug 4, 2014 10:34am
EUR/NZD is worth adding to watch list - also check out EU as complete mirror image.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzddaily 8-4-2014.png Size: 53 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,037
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:34pm Aug 6, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting Britpip7
EUR/NZD is worth adding to watch list - also check out EU as complete mirror image. {image}
Well that didn't go according to plan - TDI TSL had not fully rolled, so was carrying more up momentum than I was expecting - and then NZD did get a huge reverse candle, so not at all helpful.

Still on the watch list as TDI TSL is now looking more like it is rolling over.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,038
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:47pm Aug 6, 2014 1:47pm
Hi Britpip7..

I am very new to forex....

GBPNZD candlestick chart......showing forming pin bar same place as it previously formed.

What is your thought..Please share

Regards
Xbd14
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD 8-7-2014.png Size: 50 KB
  • #2,039
  • Aug 6, 2014 5:04pm Aug 6, 2014 5:04pm
Quoting Xbd14
Hi Britpip7.. I am very new to forex.... GBPNZD candlestick chart......showing forming pin bar same place as it previously formed. What is your thought..Please share Regards Xbd14 {image}
What I do see on this pair is the 2.0000 as one of those key numbers that traders like to focus on. This may end up as a significant S/R level and PA is currently bouncing lower.

TDI is just showing Bearish Divergence, so more support to the lower PA argument

I am planning on seeing what the Asian market will do with this pair - major AUD news this afternoon so that may have an impact.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzddaily 8-6-2014.png Size: 47 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,040
  • Aug 8, 2014 1:17pm Aug 8, 2014 1:17pm
Looking at the Friday PA, I have a couple for the watch list heading into the weekend - these are for reversals - there are a number of continuations in play, but I tend to avoid trying to dive in halfway into a move:

GBP/NZD Short

EUR/USD Long - but this may well be a pause in PA, so not initially looking at this as a high probability position

EUR/JPY Long - huge reversal candle in play on Friday

AUD/JPY Long but only if PA continues off the current pull back / pin bar
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
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