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Is random really random?

  • #221
  • Edited 8:28am Aug 5, 2014 7:56am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I dont want to brag but i have an IQ of 145 and still took me 2.5 years to figure it out, better late then never eh ?
iq is a predictor of consensus. not a predictor of solving new problems.
in iq tests i don't like number relationship fascination because by nature i'm not inclined to numerology although i can train myself.
also playing around with letters is also a mental masturbation and a sick fascination with words and letters and not the meanings of the words said.
what i do like in iq tests are deductive reasoning tests and pattern recognition problems . i consider them to be quite usefull .
now what i have found in almost all these tests is that there are some problems where there are more than one correct answer. i can find the correct answer by the choice of who made the iq test but it's not the only option.
one more thing. if you practice and practice iq tests and you can see their "pattern" you can get up to 15-20 points upper then the first initial score. so the relevance of these tests are quite relative.
  • #222
  • Aug 5, 2014 8:41am Aug 5, 2014 8:41am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} iq is a predictor of consensus. not a predictor of solving new problems. in iq tests i don't like number relationship fascination because by nature i'm not inclined to numerology although i can train myself. also playing around with letters is also a mental masturbation and a sick fascination with words and letters and not the meanings of the words said. what i do like in iq tests are deductive reasoning tests and pattern recognition problems . i consider them to be quite usefull . now what i have found in almost all these tests is that...
IQ itself can also be trained, its has some genetical heritance, but in most cases it can be trained just like any other skill can be.If you do enough mental task and solve problems with your mind, then intelligence can be improved.

As for the IQ tests, i took multiple ones, but i averaged about 145 some showed less some showed more, its not like there is a universal formula which measures all types of intelligence, there are many types of tests ,and many types of tasks than can measure the IQ.

I think the most relevant are the logical task, like the riddles and such, i dont like the visual pattern and certainly not the word/language tests, which depend on your literacy/education and has nothing to do with IQ as such.

Also having a high IQ is not like you are a God or something, it is just a positive skill that helps you solve problems quicker, so a high IQ guy can theoretically but not necesarly can resolve tasks quicker than a low IQ guy.

Thats why wall street is full of high IQ guys, the profitable trading is hard enough for those guy, imagine if an unintelligent person wants to try its luck, they will need many more time and effort to become profitable, because they cant find the answers to the trading problem quick enough.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #223
  • Aug 5, 2014 8:52am Aug 5, 2014 8:52am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} IQ itself can also be trained, its has some genetical heritance, but in most cases it can be trained just like any other skill can be.If you do enough mental task and solve problems with your mind, then intelligence can be improved. As for the IQ tests, i took multiple ones, but i averaged about 145 some showed less some showed more, its not like there is a universal formula which measures all types of intelligence, there are many types of tests ,and many types of tasks than can measure the IQ. I think the most relevant are the logical task,...
seems that you reached the same conclusion as me on iq tests. now for the market winning.
there are some which use very weird tools like astrology and they found a solution which worked for them.
if you have seen that show wall street warriors there is a guy who openly recruits traders and he said that he has one trader who found a relationship between markets and elephant patterns of moving long distances. so there you go .
it's not about iq. it's about winning. do you think james16 is a high iq individual?
  • #224
  • Edited 9:52am Aug 5, 2014 9:41am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} seems that you reached the same conclusion as me on iq tests. now for the market winning. there are some which use very weird tools like astrology and they found a solution which worked for them. if you have seen that show wall street warriors there is a guy who openly recruits traders and he said that he has one trader who found a relationship between markets and elephant patterns of moving long distances. so there you go . it's not about iq. it's about winning. do you think james16 is a high iq individual?
I saw weirder shit like that, there are rat traders, monkey traders,crow traders, who use animals to trade for them, or tarot card traders, all weird shit which has 0 relevancy to the markets, and it may seem to work, but its only an illusion, it wont work forever.

I mean its like cooking food based on an alchemy book, it may work sometimes but it might be deadly sometimes....Or using homeopathic medicine for cancer...There are many dumb people who invent all kind of weird things.

They are certainly innovative, but i think those particular guys are not very intelligent in my opinion, you can invent all kind of things but not all of them turn out to be useful.I once read a book about inventions troughout human history, and about 80% of them turned out to be useless garbage.

Not all guys are like Edison.

Quote
do you think james16 is a high iq individual?

I have no idea who he is.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #225
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:45am Aug 5, 2014 9:45am
buy when dog barks, sell when cat meows. You should borrow my pets, they wield supernatural powers..
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #226
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:51am Aug 5, 2014 9:51am
Quoting PIPot
buy when dog barks, sell when cat meows. You should borrow my pets, they wield supernatural powers..
This is funny.I bet your dog's barking for BUY / and cat meowing for SELL can predict the EUR/USD better than half of the members of this forum
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #227
  • Aug 5, 2014 10:13am Aug 5, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I saw weirder shit like that, there are rat traders, monkey traders,crow traders, who use animals to trade for them, or tarot card traders, all weird shit which has 0 relevancy to the markets, and it may seem to work, but its only an illusion, it wont work forever. I mean its like cooking food based on an alchemy book, it may work sometimes but it might be deadly sometimes....Or using homeopathic medicine for cancer...There are many dumb people who invent all kind of weird things. They are certainly innovative, but i think those particular...
my view is that profits are never an illusion. each individual chooses his belief sistem.
  • #228
  • Aug 5, 2014 10:35am Aug 5, 2014 10:35am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} my view is that profits are never an illusion. each individual chooses his belief sistem.
True, but if you cannot distinguish profit made by gambling and profit made by true edge then one day, that particular trade with his monkey system wakes up that he is losing, and since he devoted his trading career to such a stupid way of trading, he doesnt have any backup plan in his sleeves.

My belief is that there is only 1 way to trade correctly, one and single way, the true essence of trading is the SUPPLY & DEMAND laws.There is just no other way to trade profitable, you can try but sooner or later everyone have to realize this.And the supply & demand is mostly changed by fundamentals, rats and monkeys dont change this

The old Hanseatic Leaguemerchants, how do you think they build their trading empire, surely not with MACD & RSI type indicators, they bought goods where it was an excess supply of them and sold it where there was an excess demand from it, so they could profit from price difference.

Modern 21st century trading is exactly the same as this, even easier because you dont have to sail with your ship to sell your stuff, you only click a button on the mouse.But the principle is the same, there are all kinds of events and news which influence the supply & demand relation.Once you figure it out, there is no way to lose money.

Actually you dont even need a price chart, some institutional platforms doesnt even have a price chart, only a bid and an ask and a BUY/SELL button.Because you dont need it, because you get the market information from elsewhere...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #229
  • Aug 5, 2014 10:55am Aug 5, 2014 10:55am
For example medieval merchants looked for a good agricultural town and buy all corn from there , because the town and the nearby farm lands produced more than they eat so the price of corn was cheap in that town.

And sold it in towns where there was famine, or drought so they could sell corn on a much higher price.

Well guess what, these events still happen in the 21st century, and there is still a corn futures market,so...

What an extremely big realization there.I bet a lightbulb just flashed above your heads you little novice traders that you read this post...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #230
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:01pm Aug 5, 2014 3:01pm
To proximus:

James16 is a price action trader who have a trading journal in forexfactory. He help a lot newbies back in the years. Now he charge money for his time helping newbies wining forex. Just imagine his knowledge greater than the user fti.
  • #231
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:35pm Aug 5, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting victor_ray
To proximus: James16 is a price action trader who have a trading journal in forexfactory. He help a lot newbies back in the years. Now he charge money for his time helping newbies wining forex. Just imagine his knowledge greater than the user fti.
Yeah i searched him up ,and he looks like a full technical guy, which is flawed.I dont believe technicals can predict price movements with a good accuracy (>50%) because its so subjective that you really need a focused mind to find some pattern in those "seemingly random" bars.But by judging the army of technical analysts in the "trading system" sections is surely gives you a perspective why 95% lose.Because everyone searches a technical holy grail method.

I still use technicals but only as a secondary element, i am a fundamental trader.I`m also sure that fundamental analysis is more precise than technical by all means, so its also more efficient, and objective.In fact its the only logical way to trade, without hocus pocus or any other BS, only factual information which can be translated directly into the price.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #232
  • Last Post: Jan 10, 2021 10:45am Jan 10, 2021 10:45am
Is random really random?
Good question. Answer is: no.

Let me elaborate:

Electrons moves in a random way, their jumps are UNPREDICTABLE.
Whilst a box, water, book, laptop, computer are PREDICTABLE and guess what? They are all made out of atoms that consists of ELECTRONS.

So yes, electrons (ltf) may precedes a box (htf) but that doesn't necessarily mean that you can PREDICT the electrons' (ltf) MOVEMENTS compared that to a box's (htf) MOVEMENT, which you may have guess by now that a box doesn't move at all and water are quite predictable, as well as wind, to a degree.

Which brings me to my point, that trading the higher fractal (higher time frame) is much more PREDICTABLE than the noise of those fractals (lower time frame)

This has been proven by nature.
And it is not the other way around (lower time-frame's predictability is the same as the higher time-frame's predictability) as many of beginner traders thought.
Trading the LTF will make you poor faster than trading the HTF.

Although LTF preceeds the HTF, but let me explain in an analogy:
Electrons moves in a random way, their jumps are UNPREDICTABLE.
Whilst a box, water, book, laptop, computer are PREDICTABLE and guess what? They are all made out of atoms that consists of ELECTRONS.

So yes, electrons (ltf) may preceeds a box (htf) but that doesn't necessarily mean that you can PREDICT the electrons' (ltf) MOVEMENTS compared that to a box's (htf) MOVEMENT, which you may have guess by now that a box doesn't move at all and water are quite predictable, as well as wind, to a degree.

Which brings me to my point, that trading the higher fractal (higher time frame) is much more PREDICTABLE than the noise of those fractals (lower time frame)

This has been proven by nature.
And it is not the other way around (lower timeframe's predictability is the same as the higher timeframe's predictability) as many of beginner traders thought.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
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