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Is random really random?

  • #201
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:16pm Aug 1, 2014 3:16pm
not sure if this has been posted before?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness
  • #202
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:29pm Aug 1, 2014 3:29pm
thank you Carlsberg this is the first time I have read that some one made conclusions of the eight possibilities I have reached mine with other methods but that don't prevent me from a little knowledge in information technology .now what is needed is a way to make a common rule for five and 7 decimal numbers and that what really is in my mind such a way we could predict any move any thing with possibilities by reducing its pattern or rule lets say to a common ground that can be used to know what we do have really
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #203
  • Aug 2, 2014 8:06am Aug 2, 2014 8:06am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} actually it does . the conclusion of the video is that humans are very stupid and that patterns are most often than not an illusion. do you agree? if not why? for me the markets are clearly not random
No I don't think humans are stupid. But ignoring patterns is stupid behavior.
  • #204
  • Aug 4, 2014 4:42am Aug 4, 2014 4:42am
Quoting orabi
first pic 111=2=10 ......... etc.......have a nice day {image} {image} {image}
Orabi, with all due respect, I have absolutely no idea what you are trying to describe here, & subsequent posts??
  • #205
  • Aug 4, 2014 9:24am Aug 4, 2014 9:24am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No I don't think humans are stupid. But ignoring patterns is stupid behavior.
always apply logic before you trust what your eyes or your intuition is telling you... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia
tradewith60
  • #206
  • Aug 4, 2014 10:14am Aug 4, 2014 10:14am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No I don't think humans are stupid. But ignoring patterns is stupid behavior.
I would bet all my money on the stupidity of the human race, the problem is that there is nowhere to place the bet, because we are all humans

Here are some links about stupid humans:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Human+stupidity

Read a little bit, if you are unaware of the tremendous stupidity that the human race carries.

"Two Things Are Infinite: the Universe and Human Stupidity" (Albert Einstein)

So where does that come in to the trading topic, well since all traders are human (except bots), didnt it occured it to you that maybe... i dont know....TRADERS ARE STUPID ASWELL???

WHY DO YOU THINK 95% OF TRADERS LOSE????? DO YOU FIND ANY CORRELATION THERE?? THINK ABOUT IT!!!!!
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #207
  • Aug 4, 2014 10:20am Aug 4, 2014 10:20am
Look at your screen everything you need is there...
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #208
  • Aug 4, 2014 10:55am Aug 4, 2014 10:55am
Quoting 4xbones
{quote} Orabi, with all due respect, I have absolutely no idea what you are trying to describe here, & subsequent posts??
Hi 4xbones
it is long subject you can read at start my subject numerical analysis to follow it up completely i just posted the exercises here but the subject is there 2 = 10 = 0 it means that even numbers are zero at the end which is the start and end o things 101 is a status where every thing reach is a high then it go back down .it is a logic i am trying to exercise to describe random in things and they are a logic behind it
all have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #209
  • Aug 4, 2014 12:47pm Aug 4, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} always apply logic before you trust what your eyes or your intuition is telling you... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia
I always do!
  • #210
  • Aug 4, 2014 12:53pm Aug 4, 2014 12:53pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote}WHY DO YOU THINK 95% OF TRADERS LOSE?????
The same reason 95% of people are not brain surgeons, marine biologist, astrophysicists, supreme court justices, etc. These things, including trading, are difficult things to do/be good at doing. There is a difference between being stupid, and doing stupid things (like holding on to losing trades, ignoring FA and TA, etc.) LOL. Now, I have exhausted my patience with this topic so unless someone has something new to say I am signing off. Good trading to you all and make some money!
  • #211
  • Aug 4, 2014 1:01pm Aug 4, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} The same reason 95% of people are not brain surgeons, marine biologist, astrophysicists, supreme court justices, etc. These things, including trading, are difficult things to do/be good at doing. There is a difference between being stupid, and doing stupid things (like holding on to losing trades, ignoring FA and TA, etc.) LOL. Now, I have exhausted my patience with this topic so unless someone has something new to say I am signing off. Good trading to you all and make some money!
good luck to you GEfx (if luck exists of course!)... it's good we can all have different opinions and still debate without fighting.... many more pips to you sir!
tradewith60
  • #212
  • Aug 4, 2014 1:19pm Aug 4, 2014 1:19pm
@Proximus
Didn't someone debunked that trading myth of 95% losers? And yet it keeps coming back...
  • #213
  • Aug 4, 2014 1:32pm Aug 4, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting merquise
@Proximus Didn't someone debunked that trading myth of 95% losers? And yet it keeps coming back...
- I think it is used to suggest a large percentage lose, and I wouldn't argue with that
tradewith60
  • #214
  • Aug 4, 2014 1:40pm Aug 4, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting merquise
@Proximus Didn't someone debunked that trading myth of 95% losers? And yet it keeps coming back...
i think it is getting lower as last numbers shows it became 78 % and it is fair one if we know that it is a sum of zero game so if you look at gambling it will be better
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #215
  • Edited 1:59pm Aug 4, 2014 1:44pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} The same reason 95% of people are not brain surgeons, marine biologist, astrophysicists, supreme court justices, etc. These things, including trading, are difficult things to do/be good at doing. There is a difference between being stupid, and doing stupid things (like holding on to losing trades, ignoring FA and TA, etc.) LOL. Now, I have exhausted my patience with this topic so unless someone has something new to say I am signing off. Good trading to you all and make some money!
It's not about impatience or indiscipline, those are flaws but not necessary equal to stupidity, a genius person can still have negative attributes, or even be a complete idiot in some areas.Like a brain surgeon may be excellent at his job, but just such a pathetic loser in the kitchen that he cant even fry an egg by himself.

The same way, if a person is good at trading but has certain flaws, unless he overcomes those he can never be profitable.

But if the person just sux @ss and is full of fantasies about the market and have no fkin clue about what he is doing (60% of that 95% losers atleast), then no matter how disciplined or patient he gets, either he goes and drills the knowledge in his head, via a good teacher who will force the knowledge into him, or he will be forever a loser.

I think this is the main problem, the impatience/indiscipline people consists no more than 40% of the total losers, the rest are just dumb people trying their luck.

Its like a classroom in a school, there is always 2-3 genius/nerd in a class, and there is always 3-4 idiots in a class, the rest is average, and they are forced to be together until they finish school, the market is the same, all kind of intelligence/knowledge guys are mixed together, and some of them get A grade some of them will be corigent.Its the same as everywhere ...

Remember wall street is full if high IQ guys/women, that doesnt mean that intelligence discriminates people (it could but not necessarly), it means that an average intelligence guy needs to take 2x more effort to be profitable, but still he can make it, if he is determined.

I dont want to brag but i have an IQ of 145 and still took me 2.5 years to figure it out, better late then never eh ?

Some guys are here for 10 years on this forum and still didnt figured it out, and i feel sorry for them.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #216
  • Aug 4, 2014 1:50pm Aug 4, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting merquise
@Proximus Didn't someone debunked that trading myth of 95% losers? And yet it keeps coming back...
Nonsense, all stats i`ve looked at from brokers show 60% or so / quarter year, and its a bit manipulated because one can be very profitable in a Q and still lose his whole account in the next 9 months.

Brokers manipulate that data, if they didnt then nobody would sign up to them.I dont know exactly if its 95%, but i`m sure its close to it, atleast 90%.

Also flat accounts are also losers, 1% /month is not a big deal, my bank pays more interest than that, basically every system which returns monthly under your local bank deposit rate or S&P 500 monthly return is a loser system.You add those numbers up and i`m sure you will get to 95
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #217
  • Aug 4, 2014 2:21pm Aug 4, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} add those numbers up and i`m sure you will get to 95
Great point... Then add a few more quarters and a bunch more accounts will have negative or unprofitable balances. It has to be this way.

actually it's a very non random statistic if you think about it.
H.D
  • #218
  • Aug 4, 2014 2:27pm Aug 4, 2014 2:27pm
On a side note: oh great another market randomness thread.
H.D
  • #219
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:47am Aug 5, 2014 3:47am
Quoting Proximus
1% /month is not a big deal, my bank pays more interest than that, basically every system which returns monthly under your local bank deposit rate or S&P 500 monthly return is a loser system.You add those numbers up and i`m sure you will get to 95
SPX 500...you know, that is not a bad benchmarking tool for someones account Nice suggestion...
  • #220
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:34am Aug 5, 2014 4:34am
Quoting merquise
{quote} SPX 500...you know, that is not a bad benchmarking tool for someones account Nice suggestion...
Bank deposits, local government bonds and the S&P 500 are the lowest risk investments that you can have, if you outperform these 3 benchmarks then you can consider yourself a good trader/investor, if you cant than better put your money in one of these 3 places because its not worth having the risk.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/coun...inflation-rate
http://www.worldinterestrates.info/

For example the top 3 countries to invest in with high interest rates and low inflation are now: Indonesia,Hungary and China.With around 4-5% inflation free yield.

So if you cant make more than 4%/month in forex, better put your money in these countries
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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