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  • #913,861
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:47pm Aug 1, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting iqyu5an
hi man.... your butterfly PRZ should be first target ya ? possible higher higher and higher but lets take it step by step have a great weekend mate.. {quote}
You too my friend. One step at a time. Kiwi.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #913,862
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:01pm Aug 1, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} So far 2014 6months green 6-18% average gain July my 1st red month As you can tell towards the end of July recovered substantially. Overall 45 degree account growth just like a healthy trend Max DD in 7 months 13% Profit trades 78% {image}
BRAVO
not euphoria follower
  • #913,863
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:02pm Aug 1, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} You too my friend. One step at a time. Kiwi.
not euphoria follower
  • #913,864
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:11pm Aug 1, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting Matts Micro
Technically there's a possibility of a fake out in this region before a correction to the top side imo. {image}
The fakeout happened as suspected (yellow wedge) now the correction is on the way imo. If a new low is reached then the bear move should really begin to move with confirmation of a daily H&S (blue).

It is difficult keeping this trade reading the reports of U.S. strength and the not overall bad news of NFP, but the same people writing the reports were pretty gun-ho about a 100+ pip moves in favor of USD during release, so I will favour my TA atm. I am also watching some of the other pairs for hints: AU reversal signs, EG daily BO, UJ pullback etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd #46.png Size: 67 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #913,865
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:37pm Aug 1, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} The fakeout happened as suspected (yellow wedge) now the correction is on the way imo. If a new low is reached then the bear move should really begin to move with confirmation of a daily H&S (blue). It is difficult keeping this trade reading the reports of U.S. strength and the not overall bad news of NFP, but the same people writing the reports were pretty gun-ho about a 100+ pip moves in favor of USD during release, so I will favour my TA atm. I am also watching some of the other pairs for hints: AU reversal signs, EG daily BO, UJ pullback...
The correction seen on the swissy. Imo it is typical for a pullback to the BO TL before further highs in this type of BO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf #1.png Size: 71 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #913,866
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:14pm Aug 1, 2014 11:14pm
Just for fun this is what I envisage the usdchf looking like in the coming days/weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf #1b.jpg Size: 180 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #913,867
  • Aug 2, 2014 12:13am Aug 2, 2014 12:13am
Quoting Davit
{quote} So far 2014 6months green 6-18% average gain July my 1st red month As you can tell towards the end of July recovered substantially. Overall 45 degree account growth just like a healthy trend Max DD in 7 months 13% Profit trades 78% {image}

I hope in the next months I can keep up what I did till now and be between 75% - 85% profitable trades like you have , till now I'm about 45% not including the NZDUSD still opened but which I hope to close with profit in the next weeks given the latest FED comments regarding the rate hike and the NFP.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Smar...account/970589
  • #913,868
  • Aug 2, 2014 12:03pm Aug 2, 2014 12:03pm
Is technical analysis useless, in forex trading?
I asked this question because I am 99.9% a technical analyst and I have been successful in letting hardcore fundamentalists know where price will go, in the short/long run. These guys claim that the market has no memory, in other words there is no use in analyzing the past!!!

Well, this is where they are wrong because technical analysis is right most of the time when you satisfy one important condition;
(USE the right tools)
And for your information, I am not an ordinary trader. I have a phd in mathematics, I am an actuary and probability or risk management are not new stuffs to me. Most of the time, I try to keep quiet and let people curse technical analysts because any technical analyst who try to argue with them is a fool. Any technical analyst who try to give his secret to please them is silly.

To understand where I am coming from, consider the following simple case.

Suppose HASE is an investor in the forex world and he has $1,000 dollars in his pocket. In fact, suppose the he is the only one selling.
Below is the history of his investments. He sold every time, hoping the market will turn around.

1: $20
2: $100
3: $200
4: $50
5: $30
6: $500
7: $?

Now if you are against technical analysis, you will ignore the history of HASE's investments and assume that he can influence the market if he wants at period 7. But, me, the technical analyst knows that HASE is short on cash. He has only $100 left(I know this by paying attention to his investment history)!!!!! If we assume that he cannot get extra cash from external sources then I know that HASE is limited at period 7.


The problem with forex trading is this: You cannot really estimate how much money is in the pocket of investors, so you really cannot apply the simple example above. But there are other ways of knowing who is running short at some periods.. And that information can be extracted from the history!!!!

NEVER assume that bars on your chart are perfectly independent. That is NOT TRUE!!!!!

what you probably don't know is :what to look for?????
  • #913,869
  • Aug 2, 2014 12:29pm Aug 2, 2014 12:29pm
Inserted Video
"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #913,870
  • Aug 2, 2014 12:32pm Aug 2, 2014 12:32pm
Why support and resistance sometimes hold but oftentimes don't .........
  • #913,871
  • Aug 2, 2014 12:36pm Aug 2, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} USDJPY This could work, stops BE and let's see what kind of daily candle we get today to add more shorts. Risk: Weekly candle is too big, price at the moment formed ABCD on weekly chart, but that could become Bfly as well. Keep it small and add in with acceleration. {image}
USDJPY
Shorts working well but I don't consider this move as a weekly reversal yet though it's logical to expect at least 50% Retracement down from last swing Daily chart and depending on how fast this happens we will see whether we can get weekly candlestick pattern (bearish engulfing for Eg.) and act accordingly.
I expect a bit of USD weakness that should help retracements on other majors and respective testing of new Monthly pivots which could help with initial target.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #913,872
  • Aug 2, 2014 12:37pm Aug 2, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting Eurusdd
Is technical analysis useless, in forex trading? I asked this question because I am 99.9% a technical analyst and I have been successful in letting hardcore fundamentalists know where price will go, in the short/long run. These guys claim that the market has no memory, in other words there is no use in analyzing the past!!! Well, this is where they are wrong because technical analysis is right most of the time when you satisfy one important condition; (USE the right tools) And for your information, I am not an ordinary trader. I have a phd in mathematics,...
That is interesting indeed.


Care to share your opinion on how the EUR.USD pair will act for the incoming week?

Thanks!
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #913,873
  • Aug 2, 2014 12:38pm Aug 2, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting Eurusdd
The problem with forex trading is this: You cannot really estimate how much money is in the pocket of investors,
First of thanks for this post .. That let me think..

secoudly i was asking something similar a few day ago : is there anyway in forex to see the pending order at each price just like we can see with depth 2 in the market ?

It's seems not with the read of you're post .. I'll try to figure what you're looking for .. Unless you want to let me know in pm ?

have a good W-E sir.
  • #913,874
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:07pm Aug 2, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD Technical: Price action quite heavy still and now we should be heading to 1.3390 key level, this is 1.618 Ext Daily + 61.8 minor target of ABCD down daily chart + Double top target daily chart + Weekly S1 + Monthly S3, so a lot of things to look for. Very good confluence!! This is the only place I consider for any long positions. {image}
EURUSD
These levels worked pretty much according to plan and now we could have the retracement to test broken support levels from below, namely YPP + Monthly PP all between 1.3486 and 1.3535 this last is 50 % Ret Daily chart as a response to the BFLY on same timeframe where 1.618 ext was reached.
How can we trade this? We have a little pattern on 4 hours chart (morning star)+ broken channel down, so ideally we wait for retracement on hourly chart where 1.618 Ext at 1.3437 was hit and for price to come lower at fib level and WPP for further confluence for longs.
After retracement we will assess whether EUR is definitely abandoning area of broken support and going for next major target and K support at 1.3220-40 and after that 1.3060. These are weekly chart targets.
Below you can see Bfly Daily chart + Morning star 4 hours chart.
Have a great week!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BFLY DAILY.png Size: 160 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Morning star.png Size: 156 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #913,875
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:32pm Aug 2, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting Eurusdd
Is technical analysis useless, in forex trading? I asked this question because I am 99.9% a technical analyst and I have been successful in letting hardcore fundamentalists know where price will go, in the short/long run. These guys claim that the market has no memory, in other words there is no use in analyzing the past!!! Well, this is where they are wrong because technical analysis is right most of the time when you satisfy one important condition; (USE the right tools) And for your information, I am not an ordinary trader. I have a phd in mathematics,...

Fantastic insights some people must have here........ with fantastic connections to the persons who really know how deep the pockets are, in times of literally unlimited money supply for some participants

And the PhD in mathematics was for?
  • #913,876
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:35pm Aug 2, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Fantastic insights some people must have here........ with fantastic connections to the persons who really know how deep the pockets are, in times of literally unlimited money supply for some participants And the PhD in mathematics was for?
well the pHd is to let you know not all mathematicians ignore the HISTORY of the market process and I am one of them.
  • #913,877
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:36pm Aug 2, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting Ken A
Why support and resistance sometimes hold but oftentimes don't .........




Who has the formula to change "PROBABILITY" into "CERTAINTY"?????
  • #913,878
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:37pm Aug 2, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} I guess you don't get it and that is why I will let you be.

I guess you will fail to bring home your point. So it is better to let it.
  • #913,879
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:39pm Aug 2, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} That is interesting indeed. Care to share your opinion on how the EUR.USD pair will act for the incoming week? Thanks!
Well this is a trap for most traders. If you come to me and say, sir/madam where is the market going and I give you an answer immediately, I will be no dofferent from many losers out there. I will only say something about the market when the probability is very high. That does not happen continuously. So, if conditions are good, I will say something.
  • #913,880
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:40pm Aug 2, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I guess you will fail to bring home your point. So it is better to let it.
Some things are better said, indirectly. Only clever people can get it. Chill.
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