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EURUSD

  • #913,801
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:54am Aug 1, 2014 10:54am
Quoting shiva
{quote} So small chances of closing below 1.34?
yes. within that time period!!!
  • #913,802
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:56am Aug 1, 2014 10:56am
EURUSD has found support at 1.3365 on the back of a bullish RSI divergence, coinciding nicely with a significant miss in US NFPs. This is the most significant bullish correction we have seen in the past couple of months, and the pair has broken out of its July bearish channel. While we are long-term bearish on the pair we see an increased likelihood of a correction here and will look to sneak in an aggressive long if we see a pullback. Below 1.3377 (today’s lows) the bullish correction has ended and we are looking down toward 1.33 once again.
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  • #913,803
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:57am Aug 1, 2014 10:57am
Quoting godim
{quote} You will buy it? {image}
looking at the 10Y below 2.5 now... it may be worth a st buy,, i am a retrace fool, so i would have to let it pullback to levels mentioned
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #913,804
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:58am Aug 1, 2014 10:58am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} yes. within that time period!!!
it may wanna test 1.3486 next should it close above 1.3440
  • #913,805
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:00am Aug 1, 2014 11:00am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} it may wanna test 1.3486 next should it close above 1.3440
Not sure about that. The probability for 1.3486 within the next 5 hrs is 10.45%. Will u bet on that?
  • #913,806
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:01am Aug 1, 2014 11:01am
Still have huge USDJPY long from 102.... taking some pain but will stay in. Also short AUDUSD from 0.9380, holding that as well.

Looks like todays data while not bad on absolute basis, was dissapointing relative to how everyone got bulled up on the USD over the last few days. Hardest hit pairs are the crowded ones, which were eurusd and usdjpy shorts.


From here I closed out eurgbp and eurjpy longs, and am tip toeing back into eurusd shorts starting here at 1.3440, will continue to sell unless we break 1.3550
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #913,807
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:02am Aug 1, 2014 11:02am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote}Not sure about that. The probability for 1.3486 within the next 5 hrs is 10.45%. Will u bet on that?
I never mentioned 5 hours or so
  • #913,808
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:05am Aug 1, 2014 11:05am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I never mentioned 5 hours or so
I am trying to let you know 1.3486 is not happening anytime soon. What eurusd will do is hang up there like a drunk man till market closes. So, smart move is to trade those little ups and downs
  • #913,809
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:20am Aug 1, 2014 11:20am
I cant get into bull mode here, july 7 bottom to july 10 top was 75 pips over 4 days. We have had almost 80 pips over 3 days now. Could we get more? yes we could get more, but this upmove looks a bit strange. A lot of wicks again and that is not strength, more like confusion. PMI was better, but usually do not bring so much noice, NFP was actually not that bad, and we could see evidence of that after a while as we went back below pre-news price. I'm thinking trap, and i'm scared of entering into a long position. So I will keep my short bias and building new positiontrades keeping the two i have and building in small lots if we go up, or on retracements down. Next break i want to see is 3424 and then 3407.

On the upside it should be limited, will check charts over the weekend for topsides and SL areas.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #913,810
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:23am Aug 1, 2014 11:23am
Quoting NoCoolNick
I cant get into bull mode here, july 7 bottom to july 10 top was 75 pips over 4 days. We have had almost 80 pips over 3 days now. Could we get more? yes we could get more, but this upmove looks a bit strange. A lot of wicks again and that is not strength, more like confusion. PMI was better, but usually do not bring so much noice, NFP was actually not that bad, and we could see evidence of that after a while as we went back below pre-news price. I'm thinking trap, and i'm scared of entering into a long position. So I will keep my short bias and...
Yeah the long move is done practically.
The probabilities to move to higher levels is low but she will respect the numbers I gave till next week. There is a problem at 1.34 that will be fixed. Maybe next week
  • #913,811
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:41am Aug 1, 2014 11:41am
Greetings Gents,

Back in business after a wonderful WC2014 with a lot of prizes and souvenirs

So, what do we have here? An EURUSD exhausted in a selling trend...

We started to build a new short position by entering with 1/3 of the total position at 1,34, (total position means <2% of the total investment portfolio), the TP for now is 1,3274.

Reinforcements being made at 1,3542 and 1,3678 if necessary, and adjusting the TP in the 1st reinforcement to 1,334, and to 1,344 in the 2nd reinforcement.

Dead line for the TP 14th November 2014.

Have a nice weekend.
Cheers!
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON SHORTING
  • #913,812
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:46am Aug 1, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Yeah the long move is done practically. The probabilities to move to higher levels is low but she will respect the numbers I gave till next week. There is a problem at 1.34 that will be fixed. Maybe next week


Man...how do you count this %???
Are you joking or...?
  • #913,813
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:50am Aug 1, 2014 11:50am
Quoting Beli
{quote} Man...how do you count this %??? Are you joking or...?
No! I do not believe participants here are interested in jokers. This is serious business!!! Play against those numbers and you will normally regret!!! I am not forcing anyone to follow me. I am just stating my ......
  • #913,814
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:50am Aug 1, 2014 11:50am
Quoting Eurusdd
5 hrs 24 mins to go!!! The probabilities have been updated Close below 1.33921 0.2% Close below 1.34070 1.4%

thanks for the insights!
any more useful advices for bulls like me ?
  • #913,815
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:52am Aug 1, 2014 11:52am
lets see what is going to happen to e/usd next week as trend changed direction to up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30 after.png Size: 52 KB
bakare
  • #913,816
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:54am Aug 1, 2014 11:54am
Quoting vector0
{quote} thanks for the insights! any more useful advices for bulls like me ?
Hmmm. for now the numbers I stating will hold for the remaining 4 hrs. I believe it is telling you that selling with the aim of hitting something below 1.3407 within the next 4hrs is silly. Therefore, it is wise to just play the little ups and downs where price is currently.
  • #913,817
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:03pm Aug 1, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Hmmm. for now the numbers I stating will hold for the remaining 4 hrs. I believe it is telling you that selling with the aim of hitting something below 1.3407 within the next 4hrs is silly. Therefore, it is wise to just play the little ups and downs where price is currently.
Okay. with I just closed my last longs @1.3430
Thanks!

will hope to go long again around 1.3420

thanks again. since i am rather new here, I am also reading your thread 'A delicate secret'

do you recommend me start from there? if i wanna understand more about your trading 'system'?
  • #913,818
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:10pm Aug 1, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting godim
{quote} {quote} OK {image}
If the daily bar close above 3419, it means stop of short positions.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily.gif Size: 218 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #913,819
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:16pm Aug 1, 2014 12:16pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Hmmm. for now the numbers I stating will hold for the remaining 4 hrs. I believe it is telling you that selling with the aim of hitting something below 1.3407 within the next 4hrs is silly. Therefore, it is wise to just play the little ups and downs where price is currently.
u do seem pretty accurate, you go by the levels like Cloggie? U seem to trade like him...
  • #913,820
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:24pm Aug 1, 2014 12:24pm
If there is one thing i learn from this forum is from KillerWhale....what goes up must come down and what goes down must come up, its how much pain u can endure before it bounce....

Like I said previously, going against MaxDoom give me weeks of sleepless nights.....

luckily i manage to rescue my squad trapped soldiers north 150pips, with a battalion....

If the price goes 132 like what Maxdoom said, i think I can prepare to go back to fulltime employment.......

Today we saw triple bottom and price bounced strongly to 134 even before NFP, was the news leaked i wonder...

the ups and downs are bulls and bears fighting each other, the bears eventually lost because, they were exhausted and fresh momemtum buyers came in massively at 13385, bears got killed at 13400, 13408, 13435....each successive bear losses triggered massive stoplosses to bring us where we are....

i think next week, can see a retest of 13408 or 13400 if we are lucky.

EURUSD also received big help from massive EURGBP covershorts...i think the GBP bulls who got killed, eventually covered their EUR shorts...due to GPBUSD tanking after the GBP PMIs.
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