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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,361
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:58am Aug 1, 2014 7:58am
Quoting Exodus
I think we have 'risk-off' while the market thinks about these numbers; which means USD strong. As I write this I realize that it was always going to be this way....... ...and mebbe not...
I just see a whole different scenario, weak USD unless manufacturing and industrial numbers are supportive. And Corrections in extremely oversold EU and GU and the Aussie taking the lead.
  • #47,362
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:03am Aug 1, 2014 8:03am
well, 103 will wait for another day, USD just needed a correction so there's a chance for entry at a cheaper price.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #47,363
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:04am Aug 1, 2014 8:04am
Its heading back to 102 imo
  • #47,364
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:12am Aug 1, 2014 8:12am
Quoting sergeibell
{quote} I just see a whole different scenario, weak USD unless manufacturing and industrial numbers are supportive. And Corrections in extremely oversold EU and GU and the Aussie taking the lead.
I suspect you are right.
I like to ponder these things in order to feel the sentiment, if I can.

Still no wage growth. Unemployment slight increase. Difficult to see rate increase just yet.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,365
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:20am Aug 1, 2014 8:20am
No real move here so far - stuck in a range... holding on to my shorts from the point of view at daily chart.. :/
  • #47,366
  • Aug 1, 2014 9:48am Aug 1, 2014 9:48am
Quoting Exodus
I think we have 'risk-off' while the market thinks about these numbers; which means USD strong. As I write this I realize that it was always going to be this way....... ...and mebbe not...
I agree that it's risk off- but I do not agree with a strong USD.

The Dow Jones industrial average had its worst one-day drop since February on Thursday.

S&P had it's worst fall since April.

The dollar is massively overbought. It's only natural it comes back down.
  • #47,367
  • Aug 1, 2014 9:56am Aug 1, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I agree that it's risk off- but I do not agree with a strong USD. The Dow Jones industrial average had its worst one-day drop since February on Thursday. S&P had it's worst fall since April. The dollar is massively overbought. It's only natural it comes back down.
Yeah we were omitting that. Looks like UJ cant and couldnt defy gravity.
  • #47,368
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:03am Aug 1, 2014 10:03am
Quoting sergeibell
{quote} Yeah we were omitting that. Looks like UJ cant and couldnt defy gravity.
I believe it will bounce around 102.13, most times after clearing 102.67 it does, which could provide oppertunities for both shorts to reload, and longs to off load. or visa-versa

Regarding the weekly though, I see this staying in the range, which would mean bears in control now.
  • #47,369
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:27am Aug 1, 2014 10:27am
Such a small drop. An off-the-forecast NFP + a rise in unemployment rate number only caused a 50-pip drop??!!! With number that weak, it should warrant at least a 80-pip move. I guess everybody is on holidays and nobody is trading.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #47,370
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:59am Aug 1, 2014 10:59am
H1 looks oversold, small bounce from here very possible but one thing that worries me is falling US10y yield now under 2.5% . temporary or not, we'll see.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #47,371
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:24am Aug 1, 2014 11:24am
Quoting bikov
H1 looks oversold, small bounce from here very possible but one thing that worries me is falling US10y yield now under 2.5% . temporary or not, we'll see.
I agree. On the H1 chart, in my opinion, a retrace back to around 103.20 seems plausible.
  • #47,372
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:49pm Aug 1, 2014 11:49pm
Well, Smash, I guess that wraps it up for the Yen. I mortgaged my property, sold my wife and dog and everyone's looking like they're homeless. The dog is the biggest problem.
  • #47,373
  • Aug 2, 2014 5:09am Aug 2, 2014 5:09am
US FF rules are saying i cant open mu thread till i get accepted them i will post my first post here.My views about trading and thoughts could be a bit strange but i'll explane better later when i'll open my journal.We "had" a bearlish divergence on H4 with double top and the divergence was at stochastic period (80-100) us also MA was down.Who ever shorted that pattern find posible exits based on daily S/R.I missed that signal.
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I Don't Like To Talk Too Much
  • #47,374
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:06pm Aug 2, 2014 1:06pm
^ Hilarious! I love it.

thanks for the crystal ball predictions smash... hope nobody followed that advice

I know many feel that this pair is due north. Big banks said the same thing and many predicted a 110 end of year close. given the wordly events I'm skeptical and would be cautious of such advice now more than ever.
  • #47,375
  • Aug 3, 2014 9:43pm Aug 3, 2014 9:43pm
Hi miss me good time and place to sale 70 ish
  • #47,376
  • Aug 4, 2014 4:21am Aug 4, 2014 4:21am
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  • #47,377
  • Aug 4, 2014 10:30am Aug 4, 2014 10:30am
Still holding shorts.

US made a new low today.

First target for this run is 102.14 (expect to see a bounce there)

Ultimate target is back down to 101.25 (weekly range low)
  • #47,378
  • Aug 4, 2014 10:31am Aug 4, 2014 10:31am
Quoting cblack
{quote} alrighty then someone else who really knows what's going on. Thumbs up! To you
just hope you donīt follow, USD/JPY trades 100 pips higher ATM
just do it
  • #47,379
  • Aug 4, 2014 10:54am Aug 4, 2014 10:54am
Just added 500,000 more to my open long position on USD JPY @ 102.480
We're at the bottom of the RSI chart and its had 102.400 support already.
  • #47,380
  • Aug 4, 2014 2:11pm Aug 4, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting yeniful
Just added 500,000 more to my open long position on USD JPY @ 102.480 We're at the bottom of the RSI chart and its had 102.400 support already.
Quoting yeniful
long 500,000 nzd/usd @.86760 Looking at .8700 to .87100 area to close long trade
Question....if you aren't basing these trades off of USD weakness/strength, what are you basing them on?

I ask this, because if you ARE basing these off the performance of USD...then they are counter productive to eachother.

Just some food for thought
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