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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #47,341
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:14am Aug 1, 2014 5:14am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} Why would that be an hedge position ? If the NFP comes out positive then most likely U/J will skyrocket, E/J shoudl Follow to the upside and EUR/USD will fall ~ There might be more focus to average hourly earnings today as that's what Jelen highlighted as an important factot. Not much to be worried about if You're bullish on USD/JPY atm https://www.tradingview.com/v/6VBgLXGZ/
Agreed. Perfect.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,342
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:16am Aug 1, 2014 5:16am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} Why would that be an hedge position ? If the NFP comes out positive then most likely U/J will skyrocket, E/J shoudl Follow to the upside and EUR/USD will fall ~ There might be more focus to average hourly earnings today as that's what Jelen highlighted as an important factot. Not much to be worried about if You're bullish on USD/JPY atm https://www.tradingview.com/v/6VBgLXGZ/
...hmm. I should think this thru a bit more.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,343
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:23am Aug 1, 2014 5:23am
Quoting Exodus
...hmm. I should think this thru a bit more.
Haha. I'm amazed I am up at this time but it's been an interesting night for me.

one thing I know for sure is the bulls are far from finished.

i think you should max out leverage, mortgage the house and kids, quit your job, and put it all on long U/J.

that way you can be a millionaire overnight.... Don't ya know???

gnight everyone, and I'll see you in the morning when U/J is well above 103. Peace out!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #47,344
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:33am Aug 1, 2014 5:33am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Haha. I'm amazed I am up at this time but it's been an interesting night for me. one thing I know for sure is the bulls are far from finished. i think you should max out leverage, mortgage the house and kids, quit your job, and put it all on long U/J. that way you can be a millionaire overnight.... Don't ya know??? gnight everyone, and I'll see you in the morning when U/J is well above 103. Peace out!
I already did one of those, but my fingers are only half the length they used to be so I don't think I will bet the farm just yet.

BTW, short sleep for you - NFP in 2 hours
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,345
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:39am Aug 1, 2014 5:39am
Not a very good idea to keep this thing loaded while playing with leverage



http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...tufkDvi_2Wxglw
  • #47,346
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:43am Aug 1, 2014 5:43am
I highly doubt the NFP will come out positive.

1st: ADP employment change dropped to 218k
2nd: Challenger job cuts rose 24.4%
3rd: Continuing claims rose to 2.539mil
  • #47,347
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:03am Aug 1, 2014 6:03am
Quoting Ken A
Not a very good idea to keep this thing loaded while playing with leverage {image}
ahahaha truer things haven't been said… If i had a loaded one of those with the leverage I've used I'd have been a dead man long ago
  • #47,348
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:06am Aug 1, 2014 6:06am
Quoting shawndragon
I highly doubt the NFP will come out positive. 1st: ADP employment change dropped to 218k 2nd: Challenger job cuts rose 24.4% 3rd: Continuing claims rose to 2.539mil
I'm not saying that NFP won't come out negative but..

1. ADP is based on smaller companies then the oficial data, they also got different kind of counting algo ~
2. That's future based data, all past data is positive, Both Filly and Chichaco PMI's had better employement readings, also JOLTS is at it's highest levels wich should provide alot of oorks oportunities.
3. Weekly claims were at it's lowest 4 week avg in last month since 2008.. that's quite positive for labour market
  • #47,349
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:31am Aug 1, 2014 6:31am
Quoting Pharm0r
Good luck tomorrow gents, for those of you that are long, you may want to check the weekly chart, we are at the top of the range since Dec last year. Also, daily RSI is the highest it's been since December of last year as well. Just some info you may want to take into consideration if you haven't already. {image}
Agree.. That chart is the only one not helping a strong UJ.

For all of you that want to know more about the NFP: http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/cur...payrolls_7281/
  • #47,350
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:06am Aug 1, 2014 7:06am
Quoting shawndragon
I highly doubt the NFP will come out positive. 1st: ADP employment change dropped to 218k 2nd: Challenger job cuts rose 24.4% 3rd: Continuing claims rose to 2.539mil
After a bullshit 4% gdp- I wouldn't be surprised if NFP came out the best since 2007.

by the way Wuza, very impressive account
  • #47,351
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:13am Aug 1, 2014 7:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} After a bullshit 4% gdp- I wouldn't be surprised if NFP came out the best since 2007. by the way Wuza, very impressive account
Arguments for Weaker Payrolls:

1. ADP Employment Change Drops to 218K from 281K
2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Drops to 81.3 from 82.5
3. Challenger Job Cuts Rise 24.4%
4. Continuing Claims rise to 2.539 million from 2.509 million
  • #47,352
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:32am Aug 1, 2014 7:32am
  • #47,353
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:34am Aug 1, 2014 7:34am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} ...hmm. I should think this thru a bit more.
Turns out EU short was not such a bad idea.

Short at T + 48 seconds, close at T + 1 minute 48 seconds.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #47,354
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:35am Aug 1, 2014 7:35am
USDJPY weakened broke below important support levels after weaker US Labor market numbers. Let hope for the return of 102 given the breakdown sustains.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #47,355
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:35am Aug 1, 2014 7:35am
Quoting Pharm0r
Congrats, nice going. Indeed it was better to short it.
  • #47,356
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:37am Aug 1, 2014 7:37am
Quoting ArekJP
{quote} Arguments for Weaker Payrolls: 1. ADP Employment Change Drops to 218K from 281K 2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Drops to 81.3 from 82.5 3. Challenger Job Cuts Rise 24.4% 4. Continuing Claims rise to 2.539 million from 2.509 million
Very nice analyst
  • #47,357
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:42am Aug 1, 2014 7:42am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Turns out EU short was not such a bad idea. Short at T + 48 seconds, close at T + 1 minute 48 seconds.
  • #47,358
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:43am Aug 1, 2014 7:43am
any idea where to short it till
  • #47,359
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:48am Aug 1, 2014 7:48am
Quoting shawndragon
any idea where to short it till
Missed by now, cause now ISM Manufacturing is coming.
  • #47,360
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:51am Aug 1, 2014 7:51am
I think we have 'risk-off' while the market thinks about these numbers; which means USD strong.

As I write this I realize that it was always going to be this way.......
...and mebbe not...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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