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  • #6,001
  • Edited 2:46am Aug 1, 2014 2:36am | Edited 2:46am
Quoting bikov
Somehow I think you're both right in some way - loonie can act like crazy but fundamentals also matters. Anyway, I've learned in a hard way that future expectations matters the most or I should say fundamentals tomorrow, not today. I don't know what are the exact intentions of BoC or FED, just expect some action from them but if the expectations are that FED would hike rates before BoC or USA would become much more energy independent int the future, then maybe the present numbers don't matter so much. If it was that Canadian GDP > USA then I suppose...

US is not going to raise rates any time soon...even if the economy is improving... (its too soon)

Here are two excerpts from Ex chair Greenspan... "false dawn". From a very personal biased view - it is not in the interest of central bankers and the corporate elite to raise interest rates because they want to fuel growth and promote "healthy" inflation... Inflation leads to asset appreciation (something) that they want to have for the foreseeable future because that will bring back confidence on main street; as they will start viewing the asset appreciation in the housing market as a time of repurchasing and perhaps then the entire housing market boom will kick start again (hopefully) without the very easy mortgage boom this time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/green...UephWKA9Q.html


http://www.bloomberg.com/video/green...qwHYz2pBA.html

From a canadian perspective if you heard Polov's last statement...he is in no mood to increase interest rates (low interest rates is the new norm for a very very long time to come...as that will work to get the cad unemployment rate down and promote much needed growth)

Also we must keep in mind that the canadian government was heavily relying on the keystone pipeline project...but with the advent of shale gas and the environmental assault "lobbying" by steyer... that seems unlikely for the foreseeable future... Hence Canada has to promote service growth and that will only come with low interest rates...
  • #6,002
  • Aug 1, 2014 2:40am Aug 1, 2014 2:40am
Quoting Greener
{quote} In terms of retracements, if we get to 1.0960 there's a chance to go back to 1.082ish but this is not guaranteed as we are in a strong uptrend. I would take it not as a possibility to short but as a chance to long.

A retracement is bound to happen at some point... (nothing can go up in a straight line) & that might be a good time for those people to enter who missed out on the long entry.

As far as my ew count is concerned we are still in a 5th wave extension; or now I have started thinking that we might be coming towards the end of the 3rd wave... as the rule of alternation goes...wave 2 was sideways; hence wave 4 should be sharp...

I will update the chart next week or after nfp...
  • #6,003
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:01am Aug 1, 2014 3:01am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} A retracement is bound to happen at some point... (nothing can go up in a straight line) & that might be a good time for those people to enter who missed out on the long entry. As far as my ew count is concerned we are still in a 5th wave extension; or now I have started thinking that we might be coming towards the end of the 3rd wave... as the rule of alternation goes...wave 2 was sideways; hence wave 4 should be sharp... I will update the chart next week or after nfp...
I invite you all to check levels between December 2013 and Jan 2014 when multiyear downtrend was broken at 1.06ish (level respected recently as well). Higher levels were touched only in 2008-9. At that time USDCAD touched 1.3 and beyond...don't think this is possible now due to new regulations especially the for the 2010 Dodd-Frank...however 1.15-1.2 is still a possibility. I won't be chasing that though...I will wait for the new top and plan a strategy.
  • #6,004
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:04am Aug 1, 2014 3:04am
You guys are really amateurs.You guys have no fkin clue what you are talking about, WTF is :

Quoting: "You said Price will go up no matter the fundamentals which is total fallacy."

Fundamentals are the sole reason why price moves, unless you think its because fibonacci, eliottwave, chart pattern BS, but then i have no interest in speaking with you...

First of all we have the strongest dollar in this week vs the past 6 months or so, the dollar is fueled by fundamentals, unemployment,GDP, everything came out better than expected.

The yesterday Chicago PMI was bad, which caused a divergence in fundamentals to sentiment, but its only temporary, as 3-4 of the most important news came out green and 1 minor news was bad, which is still green for the greenbuck.

Besides the CAD was also good, GDP everyting, however the mere fact that the USD is fueled by the interest rate hike promise of Q1 2015, is giving more juice to the USD vs all currencies.

We could safely sell any currency to the USD, but the CAD is one of the weak ones so its definitely a good currency to sell.

So my view is BUY USD/CAD until next resistance.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #6,005
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:12am Aug 1, 2014 3:12am
Quoting Proximus
Fundamentals are the sole reason why price moves, unless you think its because fibonacci, eliottwave, chart pattern BS, but then i have no interest in speaking with you...
Agreed! Fundamentals is what starts the process... but that instantaneously gets priced in and the charts move accordingly. However we as human beings are speculative in nature; emotions like "greed" or "fear" are patterns which consistently repeat... so in some cases technical analysis is a tool which can project future expectations well before the fundamentals (i.e Animal spirit herd psychology)...
  • #6,006
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:13am Aug 1, 2014 3:13am
Quoting Proximus
"You said Price will go up no matter the fundamentals which is total fallacy."
I didn't say that! but I do understand what he is trying to say.
  • #6,007
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:24am Aug 1, 2014 3:24am
Quoting waleed.khan
but that instantaneously gets priced in
Thats another fallacy

Retail traders spread so many lies between them, that you dont even need any "evil bank" (there is no such thing) to take their money, they will lose it by themselves

Come on seriously guys, i`m only joking here, but there are some serious misconceptions here.

Nothing is ever priced it, at the moment the news come out, maybe some speculators jump right in and create a long candlestick, but think about long term traders and investors,Pension funds,etc.They dont trade on the 5 minute timeframe, just think about it

Some investment funds, trade on a 6-12 month horizon, so a GDP report of last month is practically relevant until the next one comes out.Maybe the price wont move so quickly, because there are other news aswell which shape the price, but a good GDP report has long relevancy.

Traders trade from the 1 milisecond High Freq timeframe to the 10 year timeframe, so of course a GDP report can last as long as the other news are relevant to it aswell...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #6,008
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:33am Aug 1, 2014 3:33am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Nothing is every priced it, at the moment the news come out, maybe some speculators jump right in and create a long candlestick, but think about long term traders and investors
I don't know you so I am not going to speculate on what you know or what you do don't know...

But Everything is priced in way before the event..."it's called expectation". After that speculation starts to drive price towards that expecation; but when the the event comes out and if it is way off target then price adjusts accordingly.

However If you have "traded" (note: i am saying traded not invested) consistently for a long time you will see price often goes against expectation in the short term -- this is when and how the real big players take out the weak retailers... (No fundamental view can explain this phenomenon). If you are unaware of this then i suggest you see the work by richard wyckoff or Tom Williams.

The real Gordon Gecko knows a thing or two about "greed" and how it functions doesn't he?

More so I think We are all primarily saying the same thing... We all expect USD to be strong in the near to medium term.
  • #6,009
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:44am Aug 1, 2014 3:44am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} I don't know you so I am not going to speculate on what you know or what you do don't know... But Everything is priced in way before the event..."it's called expectation". After that speculation starts to drive price towards that expecation; but when the the event comes out and if it is way off target then price adjusts accordingly. However If you have "traded" (note: i am saying traded not invested) consistently for a long time you will see price often goes against expectation in the short term -- this is when and how the real big players...
I dont think serious investor would go with expectation, a responsible investor only trades after the news come out, to make sure he is on the right side of the track.If he trades 100-200 million positions i dont think he wants to be on the wrong side of the track, because other big investors will take his money.

He might have some analysists who analyzed the fundamental data to give him a sketch, but i dont think he puts on the trade before that.Thats why you see that big spike a few seconds after the news come out, those are big traders putting their positions.

Now some High frequency traders are actually trading the big spikes, but i am usually trading the aftermath, as its safer and without requotes and spread widening atleast

There is some whipsaw at the news, but i dont think its that intentional to "hunt stops" i thnk its just a side-effect of the collision of billions of dollars.I mean you have to expect volatility when billions of dollars are just flowing in to the market.

Besides if traders would be patient and wait until things calm down, then nobody would get stopped out, but again impatience, indiscipline,etc are also retail flaws
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #6,010
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:53am Aug 1, 2014 3:53am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I dont think serious investor would go with expectation, a responsible investor only trades after the news come out
I think you are mixing "investing" with "trading".

Everything works on expectation/speculation... What do you think analysts do? Book keeping... or do they do forecasting? How do they do forecasting? There is a whole "sell side" industry based on this...

If only the market was so easy that you could only trade after hearing the news and know for sure what is going to happen... In reality there is so much more at play... Just take the example of gold and the last NFP number...A steller number came and gold rallied for a couple of weeks? Should that have been... The news media will be there to give meaning to things...by saying "gold is up because of the wars etc" but those wars are regional and inconsequential to the global economy; especially in the near term... I could go on and on.. and its late where I am!

Regards and good luck in your trading

*The obvious eventually happens... but it doesn't happen that easily*
  • #6,011
  • Aug 1, 2014 4:00am Aug 1, 2014 4:00am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Thats another fallacy Retail traders spread so many lies between them, that you dont even need any "evil bank" (there is no such thing) to take their money, they ll...
I don't know how long you have been following this pair but if you believe in fundamentals than you should consider other factors than the economic data alone which can be easily manipulated especially interim results. Other important factors in this pair are the deals on natural gas and natural resources in general between US and Canada. However, situation is so complex that best thing you can do is checking the trend. Major event was multiyear breakout last December which brought to new record highs in Jan 2014. Downtrend that followed was a mere correction which was confirmed by 1.0625.

All of you trapped in a short trade can hope in a correction at around 1.0960...
  • #6,012
  • Aug 1, 2014 4:06am Aug 1, 2014 4:06am
Anybody have an indicator for MT4 that displays the results of the numbers of news reports the second it's released?

Both actual, forecasted, and maybe a bunch of other relevant and useful data?

Whether it be 28:00 or 30:001 for example?
  • #6,013
  • Aug 1, 2014 4:07am Aug 1, 2014 4:07am
Quoting Greener
{quote} All of you trapped in a short trade can hope in a correction at around 1.0960...
How convenient -- bang on the double top!
  • #6,014
  • Aug 1, 2014 4:13am Aug 1, 2014 4:13am
Quoting Greener
{quote} I don't know how long you have been following this pair but if you believe in fundamentals than you should consider other factors than the economic data alone which can be easily manipulated especi

All of you trapped in a short trade can hope in a correction at around 1.0960...
1.0950 can also be good for a smaller correction towards 1.0900....1.0960 could take us to 1.0820
  • #6,015
  • Aug 1, 2014 4:27am Aug 1, 2014 4:27am
Quoting Stu Effex
Will be trying to sell around 1.13xx if it gets there or attempting to buy around 1.07xx or even 1.05xx if the funnymentals allow it to drop that far ? ( It may form a channel of sorts ? ) Anyway hats off to you boys who consistently manage to grab some of the stuff out of the middle {image}
I hear all the discussion and rightly or wrongly I don't think you have to over complicate. Just wait for the extremes, enter. You're either right or wrong. Be a good manager of the risk is what will keep you in the game. I have a loose understanding of the fundamentals but don't believe it is what keeps you in the game.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD-CAD 14.jpg Size: 292 KB
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #6,016
  • Aug 1, 2014 4:27am Aug 1, 2014 4:27am
Quoting Greener
{quote} 1.0950 can also be good for a smaller correction towards 1.0900....1.0960 could take us to 1.0820
It would be beautiful to go LONG from there, full throttle to 1.12...
Keep calm and go GREEN...
  • #6,017
  • Aug 1, 2014 4:47am Aug 1, 2014 4:47am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} I hear all the discussion and rightly or wrongly I don't think you have to over complicate. Just wait for the extremes, enter. You're either right or wrong. Be a good manager of the risk is what will keep you in the game. I have a loose understanding of the fundamentals but don't believe it is what keeps you in the game. {image}
at least this graph covers the full picture...sounds correct to me.
  • #6,018
  • Aug 1, 2014 4:56am Aug 1, 2014 4:56am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} I think you are mixing "investing" with "trading".
Yep you are right, there is no investing in FX markets, because its only speculation.So replace the "investor" with "long term trader", but the fact remains the same, big hedgefunds, pension funds,investment banks, etc are not necessarly trading on M5 timeframe, not all institutional traders have sophisticate high frequency algorithms, so the conservative 1 billion dollar HF must spread out his position on a larger timeframe if he wants to make money, because i dont think he will find liquidity in 5 minutes

Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} How do they do forecasting?
They analyze the data from the news, its not so much forecasting as interpretation

Quoting waleed.khan
If only the market was so easy that you could only trade after hearing the news and know for sure what is going to happen...
It is and i just did that, well i had those orders before the news happened but i anticipated a strong USD (based on prev data), but about the weak GBP i was almost certain.

USD/CAD will go up, and probably if the Unemployment Rate of the USA will be as expected or a little bit worse or better, then still USD/CAD long, if it will much better than expected then EUR/USD also SELL, if it will be worse then expected, then i close all my positions, and buy back at a lower price, as it will only cause a sentiment shift, but the USD will still go up, however temporarly might fall.

However i actually think that the Unemployment Rate will be close to the expected value.

So the USD/CAD LONG will be a swing trade
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #6,019
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:28am Aug 1, 2014 5:28am
[quote=Proximus;7645241]{quote} but the fact remains the same, big hedgefunds, pension funds,investment banks, etc are not necessarly trading on M5 timeframe, not all institutional traders have sophisticate high frequency algorithms, so the conservative 1 billion dollar HF must spread out his position on a larger timeframe if he wants to make money, because i dont think he will find liquidity in 5 minutes {quote} They analyze the



Hi Prox take a look at this vid, old but still relevant.....
Inserted Video


this clearly shows Barclays traders in and out the market in minutes. Could be speculative, could be for external business who knows for sure but it does happen. Likewise there is also the long game going on. One thing which will be common to both styles will be the RISK element.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #6,020
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:49am Aug 1, 2014 6:49am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yep you are right, there is no investing in FX markets, because its only speculation.So replace the "investor" with "long term trader", but the fact remains the same, big hedgefunds, pension funds,investment banks, etc are not necessarly trading on M5 timeframe, not all institutional traders have sophisticate high frequency algorithms, so the conservative 1 billion dollar HF must spread out his position on a larger timeframe if he wants to make money, because i dont think he will find liquidity in 5 minutes {quote} They analyze the data...

So I think you are saying that analysts interpret data and just take a note of it for the next time (i.e bookkeeping)... I'll cut through the chase here as this topic has gone off track from what this thread is all about...

<what do you think this old phrase really means: "buy the rumor, sell the fact/news"?>
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