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  • #5,981
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:30am Jul 31, 2014 11:30am
Quoting Greener
{quote} It was clear that US could not let us down...up again
what about NFP tomorrow?
  • #5,982
  • Edited 11:55am Jul 31, 2014 11:43am | Edited 11:55am
USD Dominany Currency Pair Analysis and Predictions For Tomorrow's News Events

Non-Farm Employment Change
5:30 AM most likely a positive impact on USD, more than 66-75% chance, last 7 months have proven a strong trend and increase in employment and jobs

Unemployment Rate
5:30 AM Neutral if unemployment rate stays the same at 6.1% which is a high possibility or positive impact if number is now 6.0% or 5.9%

Average Hourly Earnings (5:30 AM 33.33% chance for a positive/neutral/negative affect although influence will be low anyways)

Core PCE Price Index (5:30 AM most likely a neutral effect)

Personal Spending (5:30 AM I would like to say this will have a low-influence positive affect but according to the past few months, most likely a neutral or low-influence negative affect)

In Conclusion

NFEC and Unemployment Rat have been helping the USD currency in the past 3 months or so so I am going to say that there is a good possibility that this pattern will continue with key points highlighted above and that there will be a series of buy orders overpowering any lower volume sell orders that will increase the value of USDCAD (as an example), anywhere from 7 (low-end) to 30 (high-end) with 15-26 being most likely.

What do you guys think?
  • #5,983
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:05pm Jul 31, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} what about NFP tomorrow?
I am holding since 1.0625 so I won't let it go until it gets to 1.1. USDCAD is in uptrend just don't fight against it and you will be fine. In theory we can get to 1.1 tomorrow. NFP don't think it will be a big mover tomorrow unless disappointment. However, downside on USDCAD remains limited...tomorrow the market will also price in Canadian employment data due next week so chance to go up is big. Just don't forget it is crazy Friday.
  • #5,984
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:08pm Jul 31, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I am holding since 1.0625 so I won't let it go until it gets to 1.1. USDCAD is in uptrend just don't fight against it and you will be fine. In theory we can get to 1.1 tomorrow. NFP don't think it will be a big mover tomorrow unless disappointment. However, downside on USDCAD remains limited...tomorrow the market will also price in Canadian employment data due next week so chance to go up is big. Just don't forget it is crazy Friday.
Too late to get in now?
  • #5,985
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:33pm Jul 31, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Too late to get in now?
dunno....I believe we will get past 1.1 at some point...almost certainly 1.12...but when I started I was looking for a low risk trade.. the idea was to leave at level that will be certainly hit which is 1.1. 1.12 is the new high touched earlier this year. 1.0625 was the extreme downside that I saw using Fibo and proved correct. Some banks predicted 1.2 and 1.25 this year for USDCAD. However, after 1.1 I will focus on other trades and check this pair only to see when it hits the very top. If I was you I would hold off until next week. Today was a good opportunity to enter long.

This pair doesn't like retracements but it is quite easy to detect when it violates trends.
  • #5,986
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:36pm Jul 31, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} dunno....I believe we will get past 1.1 at some point...almost certainly 1.12...but when I started I was looking for a low risk trade.. the idea was to leave at level that will be certainly hit which is 1.1. 1.12 is the new high touched earlier this year. 1.0625 was the extreme downside that I saw using Fibo and proved correct. Some banks predicted 1.2 and 1.25 this year for USDCAD. However, after 1.1 I will focus on other trades and check this pair only to see when it hits the very top. If I was you I would hold off until next week. Today...
Thanks for the comments. Jusy dont want to miss the boat on this one.
  • #5,987
  • Jul 31, 2014 4:21pm Jul 31, 2014 4:21pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4HOLOFE.png Size: 58 KB
Capital management
  • #5,988
  • Jul 31, 2014 5:06pm Jul 31, 2014 5:06pm
Quoting Uaetrade
{image}
That's technical analysis of a possible resistance line and possible downward drop but what about analyzing the fundamentals?

Or have you considered this into the equation as well?
  • #5,989
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:46pm Jul 31, 2014 10:46pm
Quoting BlackSun
{quote} That's technical analysis of a possible resistance line and possible downward drop but what about analyzing the fundamentals? Or have you considered this into the equation as well?
fundamentals don't matter as this pair will go up no matter what....Canada is US trading partner so they will do what US wants....end of summer the craziness about USD will end but this pair will still have a chance to continue its uptrend ...I will be out by then. Just check what happened at the start of the year....it's repeating now so fasten your belt and enjoy the ride.
  • #5,990
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:17pm Jul 31, 2014 11:17pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} fundamentals don't matter as this pair will go up no matter what....Canada is US trading partner so they will do what US wants....end of summer the craziness about USD will end but this pair will still have a chance to continue its uptrend ...I will be out by then. Just check what happened at the start of the year....it's repeating now so fasten your belt and enjoy the ride.
Hi Greener
You sound like selling product infomercial.You know inside out and what US government wants
WOW
Speechless actually and you said this pair doesn't like retracements? ???(just look at the chart)
Just be happy you are in profit but don't assume you know what is going to happen.Nobody knows what's gonna happen!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.Daily.png Size: 29 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,991
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:22pm Jul 31, 2014 11:22pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} fundamentals don't matter as this pair will go up no matter what....Canada is US trading partner so they will do what US wants....end of summer the craziness about USD will end but this pair will still have a chance to continue its uptrend ...I will be out by then. Just check what happened at the start of the year....it's repeating now so fasten your belt and enjoy the ride.
Really?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MELcYuClbn.../surprised.jpg
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,992
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:23pm Jul 31, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Greener You sound like selling product infomercial.You know inside out and what US government wants WOW Speechless actually and you said this pair doesn't like retracements? ???(just look at the chart) Just be happy you are in profit but don't assume you know what is going to happen.Nobody knows what's gonna happen! {image}
it's all about chances...anything is possible but there are things which are more likely than others...I don't have a crystal ball but in this case I know what is more likely to happen. I am sure you know it too. Your chart should include Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 to show what I am talking about.
  • #5,993
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:26pm Jul 31, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} it's all about chances...anything is possible but there are things which are more likely than others...I don't have a crystal ball but in this case I know what is more likely to happen. I am sure you know it too. Your chart should include Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 to show what I am talking about.
Can you pls show me from a learning point of view the strong uptrend?
  • #5,994
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:26pm Jul 31, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} it's all about chances...anything is possible but there are things which are more likely than others...I don't have a crystal ball but in this case I know what is more likely to happen. I am sure you know it too. Your chart should include Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 to show what I am talking about.
Let me ask you a question.Had US GDP came out -1.5 and Canada +4% what is the likelihood of price going up.
I would say almost ZERO and how is fundamentals don't matter crap
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,995
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:34pm Jul 31, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Can you pls show me from a learning point of view the strong uptrend?
December 2013 everybody was looking for a reversal at 1.06ish but USDCAD broke multiyears downtrend and skyrocketed to 1.12 in Jan 2014. Breakout was violent and little retracement. USDCAD can be boring for a long time but when it violates a trend....it's fast and furious. So after that I placed I buy order at 1.0625 level which was also consistent with Fibo analysis. It was touched during the short term downtrend and now we are going through the roof again.
  • #5,996
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:39pm Jul 31, 2014 11:39pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Let me ask you a question.Had US GDP came out -1.5 and Canada +4% what is the likelihood of price going up. I would say almost ZERO and how is fundamentals don't matter crap
numbers don't matter and hide big lies all time. Revisions make them worse. how can a retail trader predict a revision?
  • #5,997
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:50pm Jul 31, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} numbers don't matter and hide big lies all time. Revisions make them worse. how can a retail trader predict a revision?
You are side stepping my question.You said Price will go up no matter the fundamentals which is total fallacy.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,998
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:54pm Jul 31, 2014 11:54pm
Somehow I think you're both right in some way - loonie can act like crazy but fundamentals also matters. Anyway, I've learned in a hard way that future expectations matters the most or I should say fundamentals tomorrow, not today. I don't know what are the exact intentions of BoC or FED, just expect some action from them but if the expectations are that FED would hike rates before BoC or USA would become much more energy independent int the future, then maybe the present numbers don't matter so much. If it was that Canadian GDP > USA then I suppose we would have witnessed some falling at u/cad but not enough to break the present uptrend. To resume, the sentiment and expectations are most important (by my humble experience), I remember the days (2008) when some stocks were falling besides better results of the companies during that period versus the results in 2005-07 when they were rising like crazy.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #5,999
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:54pm Jul 31, 2014 11:54pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} You are side stepping my question.You said Price will go up no matter the fundamentals which is total fallacy.
fundamentals matter but we are not in a position to know them. FED won't let you know because their interest in making you rich is zero. Many are able to interpret fundamentals but very few are rich.
  • #6,000
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:28am Aug 1, 2014 12:28am
Quoting Greener
{quote} fundamentals matter but we are not in a position to know them. FED won't let you know because their interest in making you rich is zero. Many are able to interpret fundamentals but very few are rich.
In terms of retracements, if we get to 1.0960 there's a chance to go back to 1.082ish but this is not guaranteed as we are in a strong uptrend. I would take it not as a possibility to short but as a chance to long.
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