EURUSD | Page 45675 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #913,481
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:38am Jul 31, 2014 8:38am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Method of contradictions and arbitrage pricing. In layman's terms; there will be a problem if eurusd closes the 4hr bar above that number. In fact, we can say something much stronger. 200 minutes remaining and eurusd should stay below that number. So we have a sell reference point!!!
Thank you for explaining, sounds like a another ballgame.. maybe too much info to have in your trading or something to learn?!
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #913,482
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:41am Jul 31, 2014 8:41am
usdx. 1/4 point to last july's b/o target atm... 90.58 would satisfy the target. roughly 600X4 eu. or (1800 more eu pips lower) if usdx works out. i would have felt better with a 360x or 374x retrace before. atm that 1/4 mark is usd R on a large chart. with smaller R on the eu.. the same usdx chart as april/may
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #913,483
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:41am Jul 31, 2014 8:41am
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} Ohh god... that sounds...like.. scary. Anyway, 1H candle fighting.. 4H could have been better but will ride as long as i dare, now average at 1,33752 and 1,33645 SL
Out now of my small long, gave me 250 extra..

EDIT: NICE i get out and THEN it pops. ahhh still happy with today.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #913,484
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:42am Jul 31, 2014 8:42am
You guys do realize that the EURUSD is a catch 22 in that the lower it goes the more likely it is that its not going lower...


That sounds dumb from a price action perspective, but fundamentally the point of negative rates was the get to currency down to increase inflation.... that is happening... the ECB has been successful to a certain extent. The short side in EUR is very crowded and it now makes sense to bet that the ECB will actually be successful without even needing any form of QE whether it be ABS buying or government bond buying.


What exactly is the view in this thread? I know lots of folks on this forum are focused on charts/technical, but even if that's the case the smoothest breakouts are being seen in other pairs. On the fundamental side if you want to be long the Dollar there are much better places in other pairs that are moving much more than EURUSD.

I made the mistake in 2013 of trying to trade the taper tantrum with EURUSD, there were MUCH better places to do it... namely vs EM and AUD.


Disclaimer: Long EURJPY and EURGBP
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #913,485
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:42am Jul 31, 2014 8:42am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Yes and Yes. EDIT: STOP SHOUTING! CHEERS! VLAD
Why Vlad ? Why Lower today?
Back from the dead * ding fries are done *
  • #913,486
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:43am Jul 31, 2014 8:43am
IMO Bullish crab still valid and well supported.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YTYTYT.jpg Size: 338 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #913,487
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:45am Jul 31, 2014 8:45am
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} I think you have a virus, a check with malwarebytes dot org will probably show you a lot of things
thanks it has worked
  • #913,488
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:45am Jul 31, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Haha, I have a nugget that gets me steamy sometimes... would like an aircraft carrier though.
fast moving lead trumps gold. those with fast moving lead can take your gold.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #913,489
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:48am Jul 31, 2014 8:48am
Anyways,

Took it long at 1.3383

Looks good. 13 pips up now
Back from the dead * ding fries are done *
  • #913,490
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:51am Jul 31, 2014 8:51am
got back in 389, looking for break of 1.34. See if original plan is in play (this latest move being a false BO for a correction BO to topside)

backtrack EU posts if interested
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #913,491
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:52am Jul 31, 2014 8:52am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} No problem, it's your opinion But i don't think this will happen over the course of August / September 2014. The Why?! Most of Banks estimate was $1.34 by September and according to my own calculation $1.34 was due in December / January 2014 - conditioned by $1.38 / $1.39 first ... ( as u see i missed the target by 100/200 pips) there are two ways to interrupt this: 1- The bearish trend is super strong, no retrace no bull back - but this leaves u with a mega problem, who is buying the Euros - someone else is shorting!! This is a two player...
I like your observation and the 'who's buying' part.

A retest at around 1.35 is what i expect too.
  • #913,492
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:53am Jul 31, 2014 8:53am
The keyword is close. use the reference point!!! 182 mins remaining
  • #913,493
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:54am Jul 31, 2014 8:54am
Quoting Matts Micro
got back in 389, looking for break of 1.34. See if original plan is in play (this latest move being a false BO for a correction BO to topside) backtrack EU posts if interested
here:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd #44.jpg Size: 262 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #913,494
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:57am Jul 31, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} No problem, it's your opinion But i don't think this will happen over the course of August / September 2014. The Why?! Most of Banks estimate was $1.34 by September and according to my own calculation $1.34 was due in December / January 2014 - conditioned by $1.38 / $1.39 first ... ( as u see i missed the target by 100/200 pips) there are two ways to interrupt this: 1- The bearish trend is super strong, no retrace no bull back - but this leaves u with a mega problem, who is buying the Euros - someone else is shorting!! This is a two player...
"This is a two player market, for a seller to earn / a buyer has to lose."

While this is true, there are some people who don't care about the profit and loss from trading...

Consider corporates, They have to be net buyers of about €20 billion per month... So there is 20 yards of EUR being bought at whatever the market price is... they don't care if the market drops 50,100,1000 points against them, because they are physically trading goods.

And it can be the case, that the pay-off in this market is not really zero-sum, and we could continue to drop slowly, without any major money losing.

Always got to remember that there isn't always someone on the otherside to lose.
  • #913,495
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:03am Jul 31, 2014 9:03am
See what I said about the market trying to close above 1.33916. That is a arbitrage window. EURUSD is most likely to close below it when the period ends.
  • #913,496
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:03am Jul 31, 2014 9:03am
Quoting ryder950
{quote} Why Vlad ? Why Lower today?
Firstly, time is relative. If you're scalping, sure... why not. You know where the dips and troughs are. 3400 and 3375... 25 pips up and down if you are a good scalper.

Positionally, if you're after bigger pippage, then direction on a 1D, 4H and 1H has all been down consistently.
Fundamental news has created stronger perceived value of dollar, whilst Euro looks to be devalued.

This is a position pretty much shared across the bigger gamblers (ahem) I mean players. Info on this in bucketloads of research papers and daily reports. All expect EU to fall to 1.33, 1.32 by 2015 and some even go to 1.27

Now how do you trade that info today? Up to you. But given the direction from 1.34 to 1.33 is..... errr DOWN, then the gameplay for you is to figure out which way and how much you want to risk.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #913,497
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:08am Jul 31, 2014 9:08am
a few minute ago i thought she wanna up but now i see she wanna down.. and thats move is bullish trap.. just be carefull guys.. i will risk this move and sell like a crazy..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #913,498
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:08am Jul 31, 2014 9:08am
Done for the day, looks like everything will stay in range now as we have monthly close. G'd luck
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #913,499
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:13am Jul 31, 2014 9:13am
Quoting mied
a few minute ago i thought she wanna up but now i see she wanna down.. and thats move is bullish trap.. just be carefull guys.. i will risk this move and sell like a crazy..
There is a problem at 1.3403 that eurusd is trying to correct but she is faced with the arbitrage window at 1.33916. To close above that number means she will not be able to sustain the up pressure because she will have to close a new window that will develop below. There we have a trap. Most likely eurusd will wait till the period I gave ends before she tries to go up freely. 165 mins remaining.
  • #913,500
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:17am Jul 31, 2014 9:17am
Most complex systems, especially chaotic ones are based on simple rules. Forex is no different. On the grand scale it looks random but, the atomic rule still applies.
3,024 traders viewing now