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EURUSD

  • #913,361
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:30am Jul 31, 2014 2:30am
Quoting MaxDoom
time to retest the bottom and put the longs from yesterday out of their misery?
  • #913,362
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:32am Jul 31, 2014 2:32am
Imo possible medium term bull signs with EUR on EA, EJ and EG (the pairs I'm watching atm).
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #913,363
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:35am Jul 31, 2014 2:35am
Quoting Matts Micro
Imo possible medium term bull signs with EUR on EA, EJ and EG (the pairs I'm watching atm).
it's currently struggling with the Daily-PP looking for it to keep a lid on things
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-sbM5 2014 Jul 31 A.png Size: 17 KB
  • #913,364
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:40am Jul 31, 2014 2:40am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} it's currently struggling with the Daily-PP looking for it to keep a lid on things {image}
Im watching 2 strong resis TL's, if it can break back into 1.34 it may fly imo.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post7641971
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #913,365
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:40am Jul 31, 2014 2:40am
The Dax is hovering just above it's Daily 200ema. Look what has happened each time it has hit this area since July 2012, it has turned the price around to resume its rally. EU and Dax are correlated, albeit it loosely. Roughly speaking, when the DAX rallies, and I am looking specifically at the DAX because I trade it, EU follows suit. A technical pointer to be aware of if you are short and hoping to meet Beelzebub.
  • #913,366
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:42am Jul 31, 2014 2:42am
Quoting Vmpwraith
{quote} 1.2 would be great but I just can't see the USD being strong enough in the next year or so to push it there.
don't expect 1.2 exactly but 1.29ish next month is not very difficult.
  • #913,367
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:46am Jul 31, 2014 2:46am
Quoting Greener
Goldman some time ago said that EURUSD was headed to 1.2 area...I never care about what they say but I now think they were correct...selling rallies will win for a while
What they say is their opinion. They do have access to some privileged information, better tools and team of experts, but what they say is still just an opinion. I wont over rely on them ....................... how much ROI they generate for their investors anyway?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #913,368
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:56am Jul 31, 2014 2:56am
long 33934 risking 10 pips
  • #913,369
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:56am Jul 31, 2014 2:56am
Looking at the CPI it does look a bit concerning. Theres a good chance the number will come in as expected or better. 1 hour to go on that one.

A little bit to strong bounce of the 3384, could be a momentum building action to the downside, still i dont disregard the bull yet. Was thinking on adding to my shorts on this bounce, will probably skip it..DP not really respected

EDIT: and then it went up... If hourly is respected we could be good as I dont want an outside bar and not a green one, then we will become bulls.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #913,370
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:59am Jul 31, 2014 2:59am
Quoting NoCoolNick
Looking at the CPI it does look a bit concerning. Theres a good chance the number will come in as expected or better. 1 hour to go on that one. A little bit to strong bounce of the 3384, could be a momentum building action to the downside, still i dont disregard the bull yet. Was thinking on adding to my shorts on this bounce, will probably skip it..DP not really respected
what makes you say that?

EUR flash CPI has a habit of missing estimate
  • #913,371
  • Edited 3:05am Jul 31, 2014 3:02am | Edited 3:05am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote}

I think it would be a little dangerous for me to try to explain everything about my methods as I use an open discretional style that isn't based on hard rules. As a base I mostly use pattern setups ie. wedges, H&S, cup & handle etc on the larger TF's (4hr up, though 1 hour occasionally) but I am also looking at other factors. I have found (as is mentioned in almost all readings) that the market is always changing so I look for other factors such correlations- looking for strengths and weakness's (and why), supply and demand, overbought/sold conditions and at odd times news events that I have a good understanding of and the expected results. So it is just a matter of having a broad knowledge base (still working on mine) and finding opportunities in what ever the market offers.

Money management is about the range of your trades and how much you want to risk. So imo don't have a "set" lot risk as the expected SL's and TP's will change. Also it can change depending on the pairs traded ie I use a different lot ratio on the GBPJPY to say the EURGBP pair because one is highly volatile compared to other that has a limited range. Ultimately it should depend on the range of pips per the amount of percent your willing to risk. I rarely use my full SL though and often set it tighter if I start to see signs of movement against the trade, it's part of trade management.

All I can really say is to read and trade, trade and read. It's about getting your hands dirty, but if you can be smarter than many (95%?) then you will risk very little in the learning stage. I do however recommend using a small live account once ready though so that a real understanding of fear and greed is appreciated.
Matts thanks for your detail and valuable reply.

I read it through again and bolded the key points you mentioned. (and i totally agree).

Great stuff. thanks!
  • #913,372
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:05am Jul 31, 2014 3:05am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} what makes you say that? EUR flash CPI has a habit of missing estimate
The curve has gone flat and the estimate is at the last couple of numbers. I see it as the chance of being better is higher than a miss.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #913,373
  • Edited 3:20am Jul 31, 2014 3:08am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting NoCoolNick
Looking at the CPI it does look a bit concerning. Theres a good chance the number will come in as expected or better. 1 hour to go on that one. A little bit to strong bounce of the 3384, could be a momentum building action to the downside, still i dont disregard the bull yet. Was thinking on adding to my shorts on this bounce, will probably skip it..DP not really respected EDIT: and then it went up... If hourly is respected we could be good as I dont want an outside bar and not a green one, then we will become bulls.
Think I will start looking for the best exitpoint for my shorts. Thought we would at least hit 3380. Lets see what happens but i really dont like it right now, could be a fake bull so i'm observing

EDIT: I see that last run up towards daily high as
A: As a test of the high with bears showing force 15m got a nice wick
B: A true bull just testing waters and building for a new attempt hourly already higher than previous
C: Nobody knows s*hit including me

Break 3390 and i think we might have killed the baby bull.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #913,374
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:09am Jul 31, 2014 3:09am
Quoting vector0
{quote} Matts thanks for your detail and valuable reply. I read it through again and bolded the key points you mentioned. (and i totally agree). Great stuff. thanks!
You're welcome.

Here is one of my setups that I am referring to. Wedge BO with H&S bottom. Hoping for this to complete for a few pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp #2.jpg Size: 166 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #913,375
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:16am Jul 31, 2014 3:16am
GU is dropping nicely, I entered on the break of 1.6900 and the Daily mid-S1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-sbM5 2014 Jul 31 A.png Size: 17 KB
  • #913,376
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:17am Jul 31, 2014 3:17am
Quoting MaxDoom
GU is dropping nicely
GU ?? Sorry whats this?
Looking to be a better trader
  • #913,377
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:19am Jul 31, 2014 3:19am
Quoting MaxDoom
GU is dropping nicely {image}
yes AU too, gold will follow i think
That which does not kill us makes us stronger
  • #913,378
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:20am Jul 31, 2014 3:20am
Quoting Vmpwraith
{quote} GU ?? Sorry whats this?
GBPUSD
  • #913,379
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:21am Jul 31, 2014 3:21am
Morning FX Junkies!
Hope you've all strapped yourselves in for the ride
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #913,380
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:23am Jul 31, 2014 3:23am
Quoting MaxDoom
GU is dropping nicely, I entered on the break of 1.6900 and the Daily mid-S1 {image}
AU on a dive too

Surprising EU is holding so far... Possibly euro strength, though EJ is silent.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
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