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  • #912,961
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:05am Jul 29, 2014 9:05am
EUR/CAD spiking nicely since the news. EUR/USD still stuck at S3
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #912,962
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:06am Jul 29, 2014 9:06am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi SaverO I agree with you that 6% growth in one Q is unrealistic however it only has to be better then -2.9 say -1.5 will be seen as positive. I am long on CHF hence EU up is good for me.
like I said, nobody is saying that... it is a q/q annualized number
  • #912,963
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:11am Jul 29, 2014 9:11am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} nobody is saying that... you are not taking into account that it is an annualised figure
Oh right! But still.. that's such a huge change in one quarter.

Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi SaverO I agree with you that 6% growth in one Q is unrealistic however it only has to be better then -2.9 say -1.5 will be seen as positive. I am long on CHF hence EU up is good for me.
Yup, I agree -1.5 still would be better than -2.9.

Just expressing my opinion and belief below
----
And honestly, my belief is that every factor, every calculation that we can think of is already factored into the market price. I am very much a technical and a sentiment trader. The only news that isn't factored that I believe are the "unplanned events". So I don't see news as anything but predetermined. So the news tomorrow and Thursday is already factored into the current market price and its structure. I mean, how difficult would it be to calculate the US GDP if we had access to all the data? So, that's my belief. Big money creates the setups and the structure, we just move in it like little mice in a big maze. Hence why I believe, 95% of us fail because we fail to see the maze that we are in for what it is.
----

By the way, with that good news for USD. EU didn't move much compared to the other currencies.. all those shorts that people placed.. got bought up. This has been happening for a week now. I'm still testing my theory.. but based on history.. that is implying a trend change is coming.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,964
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:13am Jul 29, 2014 9:13am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} I have 1.3416 then up to 1.344xx then DOWN to 1.33718
Little Late But
Jackpot
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #912,965
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:15am Jul 29, 2014 9:15am
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  • #912,966
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:16am Jul 29, 2014 9:16am
Quoting saver0
The news event to watch is: Advance GDP q/q. They are expecting 3.1% when the previous was -2.9% So what they are saying is that the last quarter the economy grew by 6%.. unless the economy is rigged.. that wouldn't be possible. USD could drop like a hammer.. and cause EU to shoot up. I'm not saying anything.. do what your logic and reasoning is telling you. But with such news coming up tomorrow.. I wouldn't be shorting today. Today just smells like a bear trap..

so lets get this right eh....

say GDP was at 2000 (any number will do) at the end of Q4 2013

and Q1 of 2014 it moved to: 1985.5 = -0.725% = -2.9% annualized

now Q2 is expected to be: 2000.88 = +0.775% = + 3.1% annualized

there is no +6%

I hope that helps
  • #912,967
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:17am Jul 29, 2014 9:17am
Quoting gatorinla
perfect storm... many ez countries have the lowest bond rates in centuries, careful with those longs.
Banco Espirito Santo Plunges: Shareholder Meeting Cancelled Due To "Unexpected Facts
  • #912,968
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:19am Jul 29, 2014 9:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} netherlands something like, lowest in 500 years. germany since the 1800s and others between the two.
I'm not too familiar with the bond rates. What does really low bond rates imply? I always wondered about this. Is that a bubble in the bonds market?
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,969
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:21am Jul 29, 2014 9:21am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Banco Espirito Santo Plunges: Shareholder Meeting Cancelled Due To "Unexpected Facts
i cant find a article on the lowest rates in centuries to post. got one?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,970
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:23am Jul 29, 2014 9:23am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Banco Espirito Santo Plunges: Shareholder Meeting Cancelled Due To "Unexpected Facts

Ken!


How do you think it will impact the USD? And also abouth Argentina bankrupcy
  • #912,971
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:23am Jul 29, 2014 9:23am
I am long eur/usd@3412 looking for 3476.
  • #912,972
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:23am Jul 29, 2014 9:23am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} so lets get this right eh.... say GDP was at 2000 (any number will do) at the end of Q4 2013 and Q1 of 2014 it moved to: 1985.5 = -0.725% = -2.9% annualized now Q2 is expected to be: 2000.88 = +0.775% = + 3.1% annualized there is no +6% I hope that helps

Thanks but what about when comparing annualized to annualized.
Last quarters annualized is -2.9%
This quarters annualized is 3.1%
Implying an annualized net change of 6%
Right?
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #912,973
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:23am Jul 29, 2014 9:23am
CRAB MEAT, BABY!
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  • #912,974
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:24am Jul 29, 2014 9:24am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Ken! How do you think it will impact the USD? And also abouth Argentina bankrupcy
USD bullish but need to watch US bond yields. Kinda mixed bag.

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i cant find a article on the lowest rates in centuries to post. got one?
No don't watch all EZ bonds.
  • #912,975
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:27am Jul 29, 2014 9:27am
Quoting saver0
{quote} Thanks but what about when comparing annualized to annualized. Last quarters annualized is -2.9% This quarters annualized is 3.1% Implying an annualized net change of 6% Right?
no that is nonsense, I just showed you how to compare them
  • #912,976
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:28am Jul 29, 2014 9:28am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} no that is nonsense, I just showed you how to compare them
so whats the fuss about doomman. what are you guys arguing???
  • #912,977
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:30am Jul 29, 2014 9:30am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} so whats the fuss about doomman. what are you guys arguing???
no argument, just helping somebody to understand some fundi numbers is all
  • #912,978
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:31am Jul 29, 2014 9:31am
The anchor in Max's example is the 2000. That's the annualised base figure. So any qtr change is compared to this, rather than the difference between the 2 qtrs or delta.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #912,979
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:34am Jul 29, 2014 9:34am
Quoting saver0
{quote} I'm not too familiar with the bond rates. What does really low bond rates imply? I always wondered about this. Is that a bubble in the bonds market?
higher rates boost a currency comparably to what the opposite ones rates are. if country A rates are rising, and B are dropping. then the currency of A should rise some comparably theoretically. that number for the usd has been about 2.5 on the 10 year. atm some of the ez countries have dropped to levels not seen in centuries. it will make a rising eu a very hard thing to do. somebody is creating ez bond demand, with many buyers. with more demand the sellers (countries want to borrow cheaply if possible) can chose a better rate for them, since they have more willing to buy. seems like the ecb is buying, i dont know.. someone big is, or maybe just market fear is creating a demand.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #912,980
  • Edited 9:51am Jul 29, 2014 9:38am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting saver0
{quote} Thanks but what about when comparing annualized to annualized. Last quarters annualized is -2.9% This quarters annualized is 3.1% Implying an annualized net change of 6% Right?
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} so lets get this right eh.... say GDP was at 2000 (any number will do) at the end of Q4 2013 and Q1 of 2014 it moved to: 1985.5 = -0.725% = -2.9% annualized now Q2 is expected to be: 2000.88 = +0.775% = + 3.1% annualized there is no +6% I hope that helps
if you wanted to compare the two otherwise you would consider:

The range is 1985.5 to 2000.88 = 15.38 = 0.769% = +/- 1.538 annualised (x2 because it covers 6 months)
The Q1 + Q2 = 2000.88 - 2000 = 0.88 gain = +0.044% = +0.176 annualised

all in, it is a rate of change number so you cannot directly take the range of % and get anything meaningful, at best you could say -2.9 add +3.1 = +0.2 which is not so far off the +0.176 mentioned above
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